4618 Cooper Ln · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$360,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,158 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,072 sqft lot $167/sqft · 22% below area Est $462k · 22% under $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4618 Cooper Lane in gorgeous Meridiana subdivision! This barely lived in 4 bedroom home looks like a brand new home! Beautiful stone and brick elevation on front of home! As you enter tall front door, you are greeted by wood-like tile flooring throughout home except carpeted bedrooms! The living and kitchen area is open concept with dining area! Kitchen is beautiful with huge island, stone counters, gas cooktop and stainless steel appliances! 3 full baths in the home! Primary suite is over-sized and has amazing en suite! Primary bath has soaking tub, walk-in shower and double sinks! Conveniently placed utility room is connected to the primary closet! Cute mud area as you walk-in from the garage! Community has amazing resort style amenities which include biking/walking trails, pools, playground and gym! Must come and see all that Meridiana has to offer! SELLER MOTIVATED!

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Open concept living
• Huge island

Tags

• STONE AND BRICK ELEVATION
• WOOD-LIKE TILE FLOORING
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• HUGE ISLAND
• STONE COUNTERS
• GAS COOKTOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $360k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (32.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 4.1% in Iowa Colony — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 57d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,630 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.28%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $461,778
• List price: $360,000
• Delta: -22.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4011 Kinsey St	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,258 (+5%)	1mo	$398,000	$176	61
5310 Getty Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,262 (+5%)	1mo	$399,990	$177	58
10419 Hay Meadow Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,096 (-3%)	1mo	$350,000	$167	54
5227 Palo Verde Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,977 (-8%)	0mo	$325,000	$164	50
5239 Palo Verde Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5	1,910 (-12%)	2mo	$355,490	$186	48
5251 Palo Verde Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	1,910 (-12%)	1mo	$335,000	$175	48
5302 Getty Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,419 (+12%)	1mo	$455,000	$188	44
10102 Palm Springs Pl	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,901 (-12%)	1mo	$347,990	$183	43
10131 Palm Springs Pl	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,901 (-12%)	1mo	$365,000	$192	42
5222 Sage Hills Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (-14%)	2mo	$320,000	$171	41
10127 Palm Springs Pl	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,878 (-13%)	1mo	$350,000	$186	40
5215 Getty Ln	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,872 (-13%)	1mo	$361,000	$193	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -55.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-157,459
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.79×
• Total profit: $-280,972
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 260 active · 39 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.4 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $429,990 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 116 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,799 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$1,097 /mo · $13,163/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-1,458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,645

Max offer price $242,630

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,254	-5% $-1,356	+0% $-1,458	+5% $-1,560	+10% $-1,662
Rent	-10% $-1,679	-5% $-1,569	+0% $-1,458	+5% $-1,347	+10% $-1,237
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,277	-0.5pp $-1,366	base $-1,458	+0.5pp $-1,551	+1.0pp $-1,646

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	73d	1	0.48mi
10035 Crescendo Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,275	$1.57	23d	1	0.51mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	92d	1	0.62mi
4143 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	92d	1	0.63mi
10526 Cabot Trl Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	2.5	1927	$2,500	$1.30	7d	1	0.69mi
4018 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$1,500	$0.79	56d	1	0.72mi
10539 Dolce Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2258	$2,391	$1.06	62d	1	0.76mi
3734 Bach St Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$2,800	$1.24	92d	1	0.87mi
3543 Whitman Dr Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.0	2991	$3,299	$1.10	4d	1	1.08mi
5714 Caracara St Arcola, TX	3.0	2.0	2518	$2,750	$1.09	52d	1	1.15mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,726	$1.57	30d	1	1.33mi
9314 Eckert Rd Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	2309	$2,999	$1.30	38d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail $108/mo · $1,296/yr

• Likely covers: gaspoolgym

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $360,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $360,000 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $360,000 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $360,000 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $360,000 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $360,000 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $360,000 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $360,000 Active 156 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $360,000 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $360,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $360,000 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $360,000 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $360,000 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $360,000 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $360,000 Active 146 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $360,000 Active 145 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $360,000 Active 144 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $360,000 Active 143 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $360,000 Active 142 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $360,000 Active 141 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $360,000 Active 140 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $360,000 Active 139 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $360,000 Active 138 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    price $360,000 Active 137 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $369,900 Active 137 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $369,900 Active 135 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $369,900 Active 134 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $369,900 Active 133 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $369,900 Active 132 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    pricedays on market $369,900 Active 131 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $370,000 Active 130 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $370,000 Active 129 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $370,000 Active 128 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $370,000 Active 127 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $370,000 Active 126 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $370,000 Active 125 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $370,000 Active 124 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $370,000 Active 122 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $370,000 Active 120 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $370,000 Active 119 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $370,000 Active 116 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $370,000 Active 115 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $370,000 Active 114 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $370,000 Active 113 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $370,000 Active 111 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $370,000 Active 110 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $370,000 Active 107 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $370,000 Active 106 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $370,000 Active 105 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $370,000 Active 102 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $13,163 · $1,097/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,163 · $1,097/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$13,163
• − Insurance: −$6,919
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,687
• − Management: −$2,687
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$23,800
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,712
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,790–$32,370 screening

This nearly new home in Meridiana subdivision features a modern kitchen, three full bathrooms, and well-maintained exterior. It's in good condition with minor maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and home value ↑
• Resale Clean gutters — Keeps home looking well-maintained and attractive ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

---

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $370,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $380,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-22 Listed $390,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $397,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $404,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $394,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $412,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-08 Listed $427,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-03 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2023-03-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-02-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-21 Price Changed $417,900 HARMLS
• 2023-02-07 Price Changed $419,900 HARMLS
• 2023-01-27 Price Changed $426,900 HARMLS
• 2023-01-19 Price Changed $429,900 HARMLS
• 2023-01-04 Price Changed $439,900 HARMLS
• 2022-12-15 Listed $459,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+65.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,163 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.