4684 E Walnut Rd · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$435,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2000 5,843 sqft lot Est $436k · at est. $225/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Rosewood Model! 2 bedrooms + Den/office area. Tile floors and carpet. Raised panel white European cabinetry throughout the home. Beautiful 4 inch plantation shutters on all windows, electric fire place, bullnosed counters, center island, and breakfast bar in kitchen. insulated attic, front garden courtyard, slick top range, R/O system and MUCH MORE!

Key facts

• Plantation shutters
• Rosewood model
• Open living kitchen

Tags

• ROSEWOOD MODEL
• OPEN LIVING KITCHEN
• UPGRADED KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR LIVING
• PRIVATE SIDE PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size reported as 5,843 (source: assessor)
• HOA & community: HOA with quarterly fee; Association fee covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community amenities include pool, community spa (heated), golf, pickleball courts, tennis courts, fitness center, biking/walking paths, community media room

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage with attached garage cabinets
• Security: Gated community with guarded entry; Concierge
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood-frame construction; Painted exterior
• Exterior features: Desert front and back landscaping; Grass front and back; Block fencing; Tile roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Full bath in primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-866 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (42.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (42.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Higley Unified School District (4248) (suburban): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #21 of 249 in AZ (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $320k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,521 (42.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.54%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $435,564
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4684 E Walnut Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,332 (0%)	1mo	$435,000	$327	95
4685 E Walnut Rd	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,437 (+8%)	3mo	$470,000	$327	79
5127 S Almond Ct	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,334 (+0%)	3mo	$420,000	$315	79
4613 E Walnut Rd	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,411 (+6%)	5mo	$405,000	$287	78
4687 E Mia Ct	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,433 (+8%)	2mo	$460,000	$321	72
4694 E Mia Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,407 (+6%)	2mo	$480,000	$341	71
4673 E Alfalfa Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,153 (-13%)	4mo	$395,000	$343	69
4624 E Alfalfa Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,153 (-13%)	2mo	$400,000	$347	68
5020 S Citrus Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,471 (+10%)	3mo	$549,000	$373	68
4532 E Indigo St	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,407 (+6%)	4mo	$420,000	$299	66
4624 E Indigo St	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,437 (+8%)	4mo	$425,000	$296	65
5091 S Peachwood Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,412 (+6%)	3mo	$477,500	$338	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $137,416
• Equity at exit: $341,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $447,417
• Equity at exit: $688,002

Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,485 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,706/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$225
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-866

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,582

Max offer price $281,961

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-620	-5% $-743	+0% $-866	+5% $-989	+10% $-1,113
Rent	-10% $-1,063	-5% $-964	+0% $-866	+5% $-768	+10% $-670
Rate	-1.0pp $-647	-0.5pp $-756	base $-866	+0.5pp $-979	+1.0pp $-1,094

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,750
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4554 E Strawberry Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1407	$2,500	$1.78	25d	1	0.21mi
4269 E Cassia Ln Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1407	$2,495	$1.77	25d	1	0.58mi
5141 S Eucalyptus Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1604	$3,700	$2.31	2d	1	0.64mi
4502 E Narrowleaf Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1604	$2,500	$1.56	25d	1	0.73mi
4094 E Azalea Dr Gilbert, AZ	2.0	2.0	1308	$2,500	$1.91	25d	1	0.85mi
7640 S Power Rd Gilbert, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	975	$1,391	$1.43	3d	4	0.99mi
4091 S Vineyard Ave Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,149	$1.36	25d	1	1.04mi
4569 E Sundance Ave Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,050	$1.29	25d	1	1.05mi
18650 E Swan Dr Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1637	$2,400	$1.47	19d	1	1.09mi
4374 S Woodshed Rd Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,249	$1.30	21d	1	1.15mi
4632 E Germann Rd Gilbert, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,793	$1.71	11d	23	1.22mi
4632 E Germann Rd Gilbert, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,683	$1.60	3d	23	1.22mi
4055 S Ranch House Pkwy Gilbert, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$2,689	$2.44	3d	7	1.38mi
19407 E Canary Way Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,050	$1.19	23d	1	1.39mi
21009 S 194th St Queen Creek, AZ	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,799	$1.77	3d	1	1.39mi
3710 E Lodgepole Dr Gilbert, AZ	3.0	2.0	1818	$2,650	$1.46	13d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $225 · $2,700/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $435,000 Active
3. 2020-11-09
   soldstatus $320,000 Closed 366-char remark

   Show marketing remark (366 chars)

   Beautiful Rosewood Model! 2 bedrooms + Den/office area. Tile floors and carpet. Raised panel white European cabinetry throughout the home. Beautiful 4 inch plantation shutters on all windows, electric fire place, bullnosed counters, center island, and breakfast bar in kitchen. insulated attic, front garden courtyard, slick top range, R/O system and MUCH MORE!

4. 2020-11-09
   soldstatus $300,000

   Show marketing remark (366 chars)

   Beautiful Rosewood Model! 2 bedrooms + Den/office area. Tile floors and carpet. Raised panel white European cabinetry throughout the home. Beautiful 4 inch plantation shutters on all windows, electric fire place, bullnosed counters, center island, and breakfast bar in kitchen. insulated attic, front garden courtyard, slick top range, R/O system and MUCH MORE!

5. 2020-09-25
   status Pending 366-char remark

   Show marketing remark (366 chars)

   Beautiful Rosewood Model! 2 bedrooms + Den/office area. Tile floors and carpet. Raised panel white European cabinetry throughout the home. Beautiful 4 inch plantation shutters on all windows, electric fire place, bullnosed counters, center island, and breakfast bar in kitchen. insulated attic, front garden courtyard, slick top range, R/O system and MUCH MORE!

6. 2020-09-18
   price $330,000 366-char remark

   Show marketing remark (366 chars)

   Beautiful Rosewood Model! 2 bedrooms + Den/office area. Tile floors and carpet. Raised panel white European cabinetry throughout the home. Beautiful 4 inch plantation shutters on all windows, electric fire place, bullnosed counters, center island, and breakfast bar in kitchen. insulated attic, front garden courtyard, slick top range, R/O system and MUCH MORE!

7. 2020-09-17
   listed $325,000 Active 366-char remark

   Show marketing remark (366 chars)

   Beautiful Rosewood Model! 2 bedrooms + Den/office area. Tile floors and carpet. Raised panel white European cabinetry throughout the home. Beautiful 4 inch plantation shutters on all windows, electric fire place, bullnosed counters, center island, and breakfast bar in kitchen. insulated attic, front garden courtyard, slick top range, R/O system and MUCH MORE!

8. 2002-06-17
   soldstatus $149,500
9. 2002-06-15
   soldstatus $149,500 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Wait till you see this incredibly beautiful ROSEWOOD model! 2 bedrooms + Den/office area! Beautiful Tile floors and upgraded carpeting,, Raised panel white European cabinetry throughout the home, beautiful 4 inch Plantation shutters on all windows, electric fireplace, bullnosed counters, center island and breakfast bar in kitchen, insulated floored attic, plumbed for waterfall in back, front garden courtyard plumbed for a fountain, slick-top range, R/O system and MUCH MORE!

10. 2002-05-07
    historical 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Wait till you see this incredibly beautiful ROSEWOOD model! 2 bedrooms + Den/office area! Beautiful Tile floors and upgraded carpeting,, Raised panel white European cabinetry throughout the home, beautiful 4 inch Plantation shutters on all windows, electric fireplace, bullnosed counters, center island and breakfast bar in kitchen, insulated floored attic, plumbed for waterfall in back, front garden courtyard plumbed for a fountain, slick-top range, R/O system and MUCH MORE!

11. 2002-04-02
    historical
12. 2002-04-01
    listed $149,500 478-char remark

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Wait till you see this incredibly beautiful ROSEWOOD model! 2 bedrooms + Den/office area! Beautiful Tile floors and upgraded carpeting,, Raised panel white European cabinetry throughout the home, beautiful 4 inch Plantation shutters on all windows, electric fireplace, bullnosed counters, center island and breakfast bar in kitchen, insulated floored attic, plumbed for waterfall in back, front garden courtyard plumbed for a fountain, slick-top range, R/O system and MUCH MORE!

13. 2002-04-01
    listed $149,500

    Show marketing remark (478 chars)

    Wait till you see this incredibly beautiful ROSEWOOD model! 2 bedrooms + Den/office area! Beautiful Tile floors and upgraded carpeting,, Raised panel white European cabinetry throughout the home, beautiful 4 inch Plantation shutters on all windows, electric fireplace, bullnosed counters, center island and breakfast bar in kitchen, insulated floored attic, plumbed for waterfall in back, front garden courtyard plumbed for a fountain, slick-top range, R/O system and MUCH MORE!

14. 2001-02-28
    soldstatus $117,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,706 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,871 · $239/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,165/yr (+$97/mo · 68.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,367
• − Property taxes: −$1,706
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,386
• − Management: −$2,386
• − HOA: −$2,700
• − Depreciation: −$12,655
• Taxable loss: −$18,552
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,452
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Higley Unified School District (4248)
• NCES district ID: 0403780
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $82,526
• Composite: 51.7/100
• National rank: #1688
• State rank: #21 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+268.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $435,000 ARMLS
• 2020-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-09 Sold (MLS) $320,000 ARMLS
• 2020-09-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-09-18 Price Changed $330,000 ARMLS
• 2020-09-17 Listed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2002-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $149,500 Public Records
• 2002-06-15 Sold (MLS) $149,500 ARMLS
• 2002-05-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-04-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-04-01 Listed $149,500 ARMLS
• 2002-04-01 Listed $149,500 ARMLS
• 2001-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $117,990 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,706 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.