1794 SW 161st Pl · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2002 10,019 sqft lot $113/sqft · 29% below area Est $284k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for your next project? This property has a solid foundation and a functional layout, for investors or homeowners looking to build sweat equity. Located in a quiet neighborhood in Ocala, providing a blank canvas for your vision.

Key facts

• Solid foundation
• Functional layout
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• SOLID FOUNDATION
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $200k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.28%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,636
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -29.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15872 SW 16th Ter	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+2%)	2mo	$300,000	$166	81
1731 SW 157th Place Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,676 (-5%)	1mo	$225,000	$134	74
497 Marion Oaks Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,809 (+2%)	3mo	$268,599	$148	73
16063 SW 14th Avenue Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,822 (+3%)	2mo	$279,900	$154	70
16191 SW 12th Ter	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,810 (+2%)	15mo	$321,802	$178	66
16304 SW 14th Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-12%)	2mo	$245,000	$158	65
2438 SW 156th Loop	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,816 (+3%)	2mo	$304,000	$167	64
15810 SW 13th Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,690 (-4%)	13mo	$280,000	$166	64
15742 SW 16th Avenue Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,647 (-7%)	8mo	$300,000	$182	58
182 Marion Oaks Mnr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,679 (-5%)	9mo	$283,000	$169	56
1711 SW 166th St	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,679 (-5%)	13mo	$298,000	$177	52
1633 SW 168th Loop	0.55mi	4/4.0 (+1)	1,660 (-6%)	15mo	$297,000	$179	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,459
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,601
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,480/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,800

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $209	+0% $153	+5% $96	+10% $40
Rent	-10% $-5	-5% $74	+0% $153	+5% $232	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $254	-0.5pp $204	base $153	+0.5pp $101	+1.0pp $48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16124 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,715	$1.26	14d	1	0.13mi
529 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1883	$2,200	$1.17	14d	1	0.14mi
1631 SW 160th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,795	$1.11	14d	1	0.22mi
16200 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,800	$1.14	21d	1	0.24mi
16390 SW 17th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,825	$1.16	14d	1	0.25mi
16008 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,400	$1.37	21d	1	0.28mi
2161 SW 153rd Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$2,000	$1.27	21d	1	0.46mi
15761 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$2,000	$1.63	21d	1	0.52mi
15741 SW 23rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	14d	1	0.54mi
1663 SW 167th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	14d	1	0.55mi
16252 SW 27th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	14d	1	0.55mi
15701 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$1,900	$1.17	21d	1	0.58mi
2500 SW 156th Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	21d	1	0.74mi
2670 162nd Ln Unit 2670 Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	21d	1	0.79mi
2220 SW 169th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,650	$1.21	21d	1	0.81mi
2660 SW 162nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,999	$1.13	21d	1	0.81mi
15353 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	14d	1	0.82mi
2240 SW 156th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,600	$1.02	21d	1	0.83mi
16846 SW 22nd Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,900	$1.20	14d	1	0.84mi
2711 SW 162nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,150	$1.20	14d	1	0.85mi
2673 SW 156th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,950	$1.05	14d	1	0.89mi
2725 SW 158th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,000	$1.27	14d	1	0.91mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	14d	1	0.94mi
405 Marion Oaks Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,699	$1.08	21d	1	0.94mi
2584 SW 154th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,975	$1.58	21d	1	0.95mi
2628 SW 165th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	1.00mi
16015 SW 29th Court Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,450	$1.10	21d	1	1.03mi
2836 SW 161st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	14d	1	1.03mi
2705 SW 153rd Place Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,745	$1.10	21d	1	1.08mi
2603 SW 152nd Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	1.5	1402	$1,550	$1.11	14d	1	1.19mi
16292 SW 30th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	21d	1	1.19mi
15434 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,780	$1.27	14d	1	1.24mi
16619 SW 31st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	14d	1	1.29mi
16690 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,725	$1.07	21d	1	1.30mi
17399 SW 25th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,800	$1.37	21d	1	1.41mi
3087 SW 172nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	14d	1	1.44mi
17029 SW 30th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,745	$1.33	14d	1	1.46mi
14693 SW 21st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,675	$1.20	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $200,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-04-09
   listed $200,000 Active 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Looking for your next project? This property has a solid foundation and a functional layout, for investors or homeowners looking to build sweat equity. Located in a quiet neighborhood in Ocala, providing a blank canvas for your vision.

10. 2000-08-18
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,480 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,480 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,480
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,914
• − Management: −$1,914
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$337
• After-tax cash flow: $2,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,480 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.