35 Vernon St · Plainview, NY 11803

$828,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2026 5,400 sqft lot $958/sqft · 83% above area Est $1272k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +8.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 35 Vernon Street in Plainview, a charming and affordable ranch-style home in the desirable Plainview-Old Bethpage School District. This well-maintained residence offers 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, a bright living room with a bay window, an eat-in kitchen, and a convenient laundry room—all on one level. Additional features include a full attic with pull-down stairs for storage, a private yard, inground sprinklers, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a detached 1.5-car garage with driveway parking. No basement. The home is equipped with oil heating (tank outside above grade), two through-wall air conditioning units, and is ideally located near schools, parks, shopping, and dining, with easy access to major roadways.

Key facts

• 5,400 sq ft lot
• Built 2026
• Listed 77 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $828k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $515k (37.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $469k (43.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $469k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.7% in Plainview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#36 in NY, #554 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Plainview-Old Bethpage Central School District (suburban): math 88% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #20 of 590 in NY (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($188k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($778k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $610k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $469,051 (43.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.18%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,271,500
• List price: $828,000
• Delta: -34.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-247,178
• Equity at exit: $123,457

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-360,971
• Equity at exit: $71,590

Cash invested: $231,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11803

• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,342
• Tax from tax record: −$791 /mo · $9,497/yr
• Insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$985
• Net cashflow: $-1,773

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,935

Max offer price $514,780

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $207,000
• Closing costs: $24,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $828,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $828,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $828,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $828,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $828,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $828,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $828,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $828,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $828,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $828,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $828,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $828,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $828,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $828,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    listed $828,000 Active
16. 2025-12-03
    soldstatus $610,000 Closed 747-char remark

    Show marketing remark (747 chars)

    Welcome to 35 Vernon Street in Plainview, a charming and affordable ranch-style home in the desirable Plainview-Old Bethpage School District. This well-maintained residence offers 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, a bright living room with a bay window, an eat-in kitchen, and a convenient laundry room—all on one level. Additional features include a full attic with pull-down stairs for storage, a private yard, inground sprinklers, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a detached 1.5-car garage with driveway parking. No basement. The home is equipped with oil heating (tank outside above grade), two through-wall air conditioning units, and is ideally located near schools, parks, shopping, and dining, with easy access to major roadways.

17. 2025-10-02
    status Pending 747-char remark

    Show marketing remark (747 chars)

    Welcome to 35 Vernon Street in Plainview, a charming and affordable ranch-style home in the desirable Plainview-Old Bethpage School District. This well-maintained residence offers 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, a bright living room with a bay window, an eat-in kitchen, and a convenient laundry room—all on one level. Additional features include a full attic with pull-down stairs for storage, a private yard, inground sprinklers, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a detached 1.5-car garage with driveway parking. No basement. The home is equipped with oil heating (tank outside above grade), two through-wall air conditioning units, and is ideally located near schools, parks, shopping, and dining, with easy access to major roadways.

18. 2025-09-03
    listed $639,000 Active 747-char remark

    Show marketing remark (747 chars)

    Welcome to 35 Vernon Street in Plainview, a charming and affordable ranch-style home in the desirable Plainview-Old Bethpage School District. This well-maintained residence offers 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, a bright living room with a bay window, an eat-in kitchen, and a convenient laundry room—all on one level. Additional features include a full attic with pull-down stairs for storage, a private yard, inground sprinklers, a covered patio perfect for entertaining, and a detached 1.5-car garage with driveway parking. No basement. The home is equipped with oil heating (tank outside above grade), two through-wall air conditioning units, and is ideally located near schools, parks, shopping, and dining, with easy access to major roadways.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,497 · $791/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,745 · $979/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,248/yr (+$187/mo · 23.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,381
• − Property taxes: −$9,497
• − Insurance: −$4,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,503
• − Management: −$4,503
• − Depreciation: −$24,087
• Taxable loss: −$36,825
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,838
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plainview-Old Bethpage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623220
• Math proficiency: 88% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 86% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $122,932
• Composite: 80.45/100
• National rank: #47
• State rank: #20 of 590 in NY

Livability — Plainview

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #554

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plainview, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 29,713
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,713
• Household income: $187,514
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 19% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 4% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -825.62%
• Current HPI: 298.0511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+29.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $828,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Sold (MLS) $610,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Listed $639,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $9,497 · +116.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.