802 Ambleside Dr · Haines City, FL 33844

$275,190

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · Land · 113 Days on market

Built 2025 4,791 sqft lot $49/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Discover the Downing floorplan at Bradbury Creek in Haines City, featuring 1,302 square feet, three bedrooms and two bathrooms, this home prioritizes efficient living without sacrificing an ounce of warmth. Step inside and be greeted by a thoughtfully arranged space, designed to maximize both comfort and flow. Luxury vinyl flooring guides you through the home, setting the stage for everyday living. The heart of the Downing is its open concept living area, where the living room and kitchen merge seamlessly, fostering connection and ease. This central space, bathed in natural light, is perfect for cozy evenings or casual gatherings. The kitchen, a model of efficiency, is e

Key facts

• Modern appliances
• Private bathroom
• 4,791 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• WELL-ORGANIZED STORAGE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• Financial info: Other annual assessment applicable; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Prime Community Management) — quarterly association fee; Association fee $148 quarterly (approx. $49.33/month); Community amenities: pool, playground, sidewalks, street lights; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Cable available; Phone available; BB/HS internet available; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Under construction (projected completion March 19, 2026); Faces south
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: D.R. Horton (model: Downing II); Permit number CBC1265174
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Inside utility

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-250 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $212,905 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-64,351
• Equity at exit: $41,032

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-91,659
• Equity at exit: $23,793

Cash invested: $77,053 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,129 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,443
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,905/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,446

Max offer price $230,983

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,798
• Closing costs: $8,256
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1717 Frogmore Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	23d	1	0.02mi
432 Summer Grove Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,850	$1.44	23d	1	0.50mi
148 Summerlin Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,850	$1.17	14d	1	0.69mi
3139 Cedar Crossing Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,795	$1.19	3d	1	0.79mi
1138 Foreshore Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,200	$1.27	23d	1	0.82mi
3377 Wakefield Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	23d	1	0.90mi
1361 Current Pl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$2,100	$1.29	23d	1	0.92mi
1313 Tank Trl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,095	$1.44	23d	1	0.92mi
662 Fairview Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,995	$1.12	3d	1	1.03mi
375 Boardwalk Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,350	$1.36	14d	1	1.04mi
1336 Madison Cir Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,800	$1.62	23d	1	1.08mi
768 Richmond Estate Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,995	$1.12	23d	1	1.09mi
1339 Madison Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,990	$1.37	21d	1	1.10mi
128 Arlington Square Ct Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,300	$1.57	14d	1	1.12mi
1123 Patriot Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,150	$1.19	14d	1	1.15mi
148 Roseville Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1631	$1,799	$1.10	14d	1	1.20mi
570 Feltrim Manor Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,400	$1.31	23d	1	1.21mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	14d	1	1.33mi
299 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,300	$1.30	23d	1	1.33mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	23d	1	1.34mi
429 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,990	$1.22	19d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $275,190
3. 2026-01-15
   listed $277,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,905 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,905 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,415
• − Property taxes: −$3,905
• − Insurance: −$1,376
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,044
• − Management: −$2,044
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$8,006
• Taxable loss: −$7,828
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,879
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $275,190 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Listed $277,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,905 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.