601 Goodes Ferry Rd · South Hill, VA 23970

$199,800

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1928 0.25 ac lot Est $268k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home perfect as a starter or investment property. This well-kept home features gorgeous original wood floors, a cozy fireplace, and spacious rooms filled with natural light. The kitchen includes all appliances and a rare walk-in pantry, offering plenty of storage and functionality. Enjoy outdoor living in the fully fenced backyard—ideal for pets, play, or entertaining. Conveniently located near shopping, schools, and major routes, this home sits in an established neighborhood with a welcoming feel. Move-in ready with great potential to add your own personal touches.

Key facts

• Original wood floors
• Walk-in pantry
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOOD FLOORS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Residential/Vacation subtype; One-level home; Composition roof
• Construction: No basement
• Exterior features: Garden; Front porch; Rear porch; Patio; Paved road access; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window coverings and treatments; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; DSL/Cable available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($519/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.5% in South Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#102 in VA, #3,220 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Hill Elementary (math 63% / reading 72%, grade B+, #372 of 1,108 statewide, top 34%, 733 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 54% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,254 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.93%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,904
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1102 Goodes Ferry Rd	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,392 (-5%)	2mo	$142,000	$102	70
417 Jeffreys Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-9%)	13mo	$244,000	$182	60
401 W High St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,310 (-11%)	1mo	$224,000	$171	51
982 Parkview Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,529 (+4%)	13mo	$315,000	$206	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,595
• Equity at exit: $29,791

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,115
• Equity at exit: $17,275

Cash invested: $55,944 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23970

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,803 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,997/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,748

Max offer price $199,800

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $181	-5% $112	+0% $43	+5% $-26	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $-28	+0% $43	+5% $114	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $144	-0.5pp $94	base $43	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,950
• Closing costs: $5,994
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1120 Goodes Ferry Rd South Hill, VA	3.0	1.5	936	$1,700	$1.82	25d	1	0.43mi
238 Beaver Creek Dr South Hill, VA	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,100	$1.34	45d	1	1.26mi
440 Thompson St La Crosse, VA	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,650	$1.06	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $199,800 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,800 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,800 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,800 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,800 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,800 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,800 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 599-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $199,800 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,192
• − Property taxes: −$2,997
• − Insurance: −$999
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,730
• − Management: −$1,730
• − Depreciation: −$5,812
• Taxable loss: −$2,831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$679
• After-tax cash flow: $1,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — South Hill

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #3220

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Hill, VA
• County: Mecklenburg County · 8,109 people
• City population: 8,109
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 8,109
• Household income: $65,170
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 129.0

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 37% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.95%
• Current HPI: 190.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+15884.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $199,800 RVLG
• 2026-04-16 Rental Removed $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-11 Listed for Rent $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-17 Rental Removed $1,250 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-07 Listed for Rent $1,250 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-22 Rental Removed $1,250 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-05 Listed for Rent $1,250 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $287 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.