88 Highland Ave · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$207,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1930 4,500 sqft lot Est $270k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming, move in ready, 3 bedroom 2 full bath home in the City of Tonawanda! Make this backyard your own private escape with the cozy patio, fire pit and brand new fence. The hot water tank, furnace, roof and most windows were all replaced in 2016- this house needs nothing! The natural light, storage and woodwork in this beautiful home will not disappoint you. Showings start immediately! All offers will be reviewed Tuesday, September 7th, at 6:00 pm.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• First floor bedroom
• 4,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM
• NEWLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• NEW CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• BACK YARD CONCRETE PATIO
• MAIN PLUMBING STACK UPDATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric service
• Home design: Single-story property; Existing (previously built); Facing information not provided
• Construction: Composite siding; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Resale condition
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Fully fenced yard; Patio; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street/right-of-way frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating with electric and gas options; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Dining area; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Combined living/dining room; Natural woodwork; Main-level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $207k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($81/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mullen Elementary School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 303 students, 54% FRL); Fletcher Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%); Tonawanda Middle/High School (math 49% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,023 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 1,011 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 34% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $181,148 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.14%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,610
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
81 Winkler Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,212 (-6%)	6mo	$257,500	$212	60
17 Nicholas Dr N	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,281 (-1%)	10mo	$250,000	$195	59
115 Nicholas Dr N	0.47mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,264 (-2%)	14mo	$235,000	$186	53
127 Bannard Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,263 (-2%)	9mo	$240,000	$190	52
26 Nicholas Ct	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,316 (+2%)	13mo	$310,500	$236	49
20 Nicholas Dr N	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,108 (-14%)	5mo	$160,000	$144	41
157 Newell Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,131 (-12%)	8mo	$269,900	$239	37
58 Nicholas Dr N	0.48mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,434 (+11%)	14mo	$300,000	$209	37
18 Joseph Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,096 (-15%)	3mo	$295,000	$269	34
23 Nicholas Ct	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,458 (+13%)	24mo	$282,000	$193	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-25,996
• Equity at exit: $30,864

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $9,456
• Equity at exit: $17,898

Cash invested: $57,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,811 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,086
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,030/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,803

Max offer price $207,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $65	+0% $7	+5% $-52	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-65	+0% $7	+5% $78	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $59	base $7	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,750
• Closing costs: $6,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	13d	1	0.48mi
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	5d	1	0.53mi
86 Scott St Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1584	$1,450	$0.92	3d	1	0.60mi
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	3d	1	1.13mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,900	$1.95	3d	1	1.30mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	19d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $207,000 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $207,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $207,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $207,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $207,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $207,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $207,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $207,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,030 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,264 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: +$234/yr (+$20/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,595
• − Property taxes: −$3,030
• − Insurance: −$1,035
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − Depreciation: −$6,022
• Taxable loss: −$3,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$821
• After-tax cash flow: $903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+195.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $207,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-22 Sold (MLS) $180,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-09-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-09-08 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-08-31 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2017-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-03 Sold (MLS) $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-01-10 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-11-28 Listed $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-09-06 Listed $70,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-09-06 Sold (MLS) $70,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,030 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.