Is 166 Madisonville Dr in Canton, MS a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 6.2% cap rate and $-22/mo modeled cash flow at a $278,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 166 Madisonville Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 6.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,475/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D Composite 43.44

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +12.9/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +4.9/10.0
DSCR +3.9/10.0
1% rule +3.8/10.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$278,900

166 Madisonville Dr · Canton, MS 39046

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,506 sqft · SingleFamily · 171 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Come check the NEW construction homes in MADISON COUNTIES NEWEST DEVELOPMENT and is only 3 miles from the Natchez Trace so you can bypass the Yandell Rd. traffic. Only a few minutes from the Reservoir and it is located in the GERMANTOWN SCHOOL DISTRICT. This is a 3/2 OPEN SPLIT PLAN sits on a lot with a nice back yard. It has a open kitchen with a bar. Kitchen also has granite counter tops and stainless steel GE appliances. This home has a nice size family room with brick gas log fireplace. The master bath has a tub, separate shower, and a large walk in closet. So don't miss out on this one. This home comes with a sodded yard, gas log fireplace, and much more.

Key facts

Granite counter tops
Open kitchen
2 garage spots

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-264/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (0.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (11.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $245k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

Location reads 60/100 on livability (#229 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 576 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $2,475/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $245,432 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.88% ✗
Cap rate: 6.20%
Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
DSCR: 0.99
GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $281,342
List price: $278,900
Delta: -0.87%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
152 Madisonville Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,506 (0%)	1mo	$278,900	$185	99
162 Madisonville Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,506 (0%)	4mo	$278,900	$185	97
156 Madisonville Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,531 (+2%)	0mo	$283,900	$185	97
159 Madisonville Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,506 (0%)	4mo	$278,900	$185	97
157 Madisonville Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,524 (+1%)	2mo	$282,500	$185	96
150 Madisonville Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,549 (+3%)	1mo	$286,900	$185	89
161 Madisonville Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,549 (+3%)	4mo	$286,900	$185	87
247 Hemingway Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,506 (0%)	8mo	$275,000	$183	87
205 Hemingway Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,506 (0%)	13mo	$274,400	$182	81
249 Hemingway Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+8%)	3mo	$297,900	$183	77
126 Madisonville Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,725 (+14%)	8mo	$299,999	$174	68
104 Bridge Hollow Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+11%)	8mo	$279,000	$167	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -16.8%
Equity multiple: 0.40×
Total profit: $-46,931
Equity at exit: $41,949

10-year hold

IRR: -8.6%
Equity multiple: 0.46×
Total profit: $-42,435
Equity at exit: $24,325

Cash invested: $78,776 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 15 active · 27 under contract
Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $282,500 ($185/sqft)
Median days on market: 141 d
This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +0.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39046

Home prices YoY: -30.1%
Active inventory: 576
Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,475 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,475
Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,220/yr
Insurance: −$117
HOA: −$33
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,503

Max offer price $278,163

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $75	+0% $-22	+5% $-119	+10% $-216
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-120	+0% $-22	+5% $76	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $50	base $-22	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $70,336
Closing costs: $8,440
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Madisonville Dr Canton, MS	4.0	2.0	1549	$2,500	$1.61	2d	1	0.03mi
150 Madisonville Dr Canton, MS	4.0	2.0	1549	$2,600	$1.68	21d	1	0.03mi
165 Madisonville Dr Canton, MS	4.0	2.0	1549	$2,500	$1.61	10d	1	0.03mi
224 Hemingway CIR Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,250	$1.49	31d	1	0.24mi
125 Trailbridge Crossing Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	154d	1	0.61mi
116 Cedar Green Dr Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1592	$2,287	$1.44	46d	1	1.08mi
167 Notting Hill Pl Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1686	$2,195	$1.30	16d	1	1.13mi
167 Notting Hill Pl Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1686	$2,195	$1.30	10d	1	1.13mi
161 Notting Hill Pl Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,250	$1.41	10d	1	1.17mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $400 (includes management)

Exterior

Parking: 2-car garageGarage door opener
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableNatural gas available
Home design: Single-family houseOne storyNew constructionLiving area based on plans
Construction: Brick constructionArchitectural shingle roofSlab foundationBuilt by builder
Exterior features: Front yardSlab patio/porch

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveGas water heater
Flooring: Concrete floors
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Fireplace heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fansGas cooling
Interior features: DishwasherDisposalExhaust fanGas water heaterMicrowaveGas fireplace with gas log and gas starterInsulated windows

HOA detail $33/mo · $396/yr

Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $278,900 Active 171 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $278,900 Active 170 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $278,900 Active 169 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $278,900 Active 168 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $278,900 Active 167 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $278,900 Active 165 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $278,900 Active 164 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $278,900 Active 163 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $278,900 Active 162 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $278,900 Active 161 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $278,900 Active 160 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $278,900 Active 159 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $278,900 Active 158 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $278,900 Active 157 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $278,900 Active 156 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $278,900 Active 155 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $278,900 Active 154 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $278,900 Active 153 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $278,900 Active 152 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $278,900 Active 151 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $278,900 Active 150 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $278,900 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $278,900 Active 148 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $278,900 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $278,900 Active 146 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $278,900 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $278,900 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $278,900 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $278,900 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $278,900 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $278,900 Active 140 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $278,900 Active 139 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $278,900 Active 138 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $278,900 Active 137 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $278,900 Active 136 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $278,900 Active 135 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $278,900 Active 134 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $278,900 Active 133 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $278,900 Active 132 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $278,900 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $278,900 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $278,900 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $278,900 Active 128 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $278,900 Active 127 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $278,900 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $278,900 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $278,900 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $278,900 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $278,900 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $278,900 Active 120 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,701
− Mortgage interest: −$15,760
− Property taxes: −$4,220
− Insurance: −$1,407
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,376
− Management: −$2,376
− HOA: −$396
− Depreciation: −$8,185
Taxable loss: −$5,018

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,204
After-tax cash flow: $941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is nearly complete and ready for move-in. Minor finishing touches are needed to complete the interior and exterior, but it is in excellent condition and ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Install flooring — Flooring completes the living spaces and adds comfort. ↑
Both Install kitchen appliances — Appliances complete the kitchen and make it functional. ↑
Both Install bathroom fixtures — Bathroom fixtures complete the bathroom and make it usable. ↑
Both Install HVAC and mechanical systems — HVAC and mechanical systems ensure comfort and functionality. ↑
Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Madison Crossing Elementary C MS #49/375 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Germantown Middle School B MS #14/179 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Germantown High School F MS #59/197 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Madison County School District
NCES district ID: 2802790
Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income: $70,579
Composite: 48.08/100
National rank: #2188
State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Canton

Score: 60/100
State rank: #229
US rank: #19396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Madison · 122,509 people
City population: 29,160
Metro: Jackson, MS
Population (ZIP): 29,160
Household income: $48,288
Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 122,509 people
By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -66.50%
Current HPI: 154.0441
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: —
F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-05-21 Listed $278,900 MLSU

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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