241 Oakdale Gin Rd · Raeford, NC 28376

$85,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,125 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1946 0.51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

-Fixer upper at best. Home is in disrepair. Being sold as is! Sits on half an acre and can be purchased w/ 182 Iris; One acre for 30k Total. -Fixer upper at best. Home is in disrepair. Being sold as is! Sits on half an acre and can e purchased w/ 182 Iris; One acre for 30k Total.

Key facts

• One acre lot
• Downtown raeford
• 0.51 acre lot

Tags

• ONE ACRE LOT
• DOWNTOWN RAEFORD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 5.4% in Raeford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#39 in NC, #3,562 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $85k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.05%
• DSCR: 3.36
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,625
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
316 Patterson St	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,977 (-7%)	5mo	$295,000	$149	61
210 Pinewood Ave	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,950 (-8%)	12mo	$305,000	$156	61
1006 E Prospect Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,921 (-10%)	9mo	$349,900	$182	50
1208 E Prospect Ave	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,808 (-15%)	20mo	$210,000	$116	41
229 Cape Fear Rd	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,889 (-11%)	12mo	$270,000	$143	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $51,080
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $122,094
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28376

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 566
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $634/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $1,052

Break-even live

Break-even rent $676

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,100	-5% $1,076	+0% $1,052	+5% $1,028	+10% $1,004
Rent	-10% $894	-5% $973	+0% $1,052	+5% $1,132	+10% $1,211
Rate	-1.0pp $1,095	-0.5pp $1,074	base $1,052	+0.5pp $1,030	+1.0pp $1,008

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
478 Cape Fear Rd Raeford, NC	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,850	$1.30	24d	1	0.77mi
478 Cape Fear Rd Raeford, NC	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,850	$1.30	14d	1	0.77mi
676 Broad Dr Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	0.90mi
916 Stevens St Raeford, NC	3.0	2.5	1646	$1,900	$1.15	24d	1	1.23mi
123 Main St Raeford, NC	4.0	2.5	1913	$2,200	$1.15	24d	1	1.28mi
198 Peeler Raeford, NC	4.0	2.5	1886	$2,150	$1.14	24d	1	1.29mi
728 Roanoke Dr Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1581	$1,950	$1.23	24d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-06-13
   soldstatus $45,000
2. 2025-05-15
   status Pending
3. 2025-03-13
   price $85,000
4. 2025-02-27
   listed $120,000 Active
5. 2017-05-31
   soldstatus $12,000 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   -Fixer upper at best. Home is in disrepair. Being sold as is! Sits on half an acre and can be purchased w/ 182 Iris; One acre for 30k Total. -Fixer upper at best. Home is in disrepair. Being sold as is! Sits on half an acre and can e purchased w/ 182 Iris; One acre for 30k Total.

6. 2017-02-01
   listed $25,000 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   -Fixer upper at best. Home is in disrepair. Being sold as is! Sits on half an acre and can be purchased w/ 182 Iris; One acre for 30k Total. -Fixer upper at best. Home is in disrepair. Being sold as is! Sits on half an acre and can e purchased w/ 182 Iris; One acre for 30k Total.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $697 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$63/yr (+$5/mo · 9.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$634
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,928
• − Management: −$1,928
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $11,946
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,867
• After-tax cash flow: $9,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Raeford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #3562

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hoke County · 44,880 people
• City population: 44,880
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 44,880
• Household income: $66,471
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.30%
• Current HPI: 169.1801
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+80.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-15 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $85,000 TMLS
• 2025-02-27 Listed $120,000 TMLS
• 2017-05-31 Sold (MLS) $12,000 LPRMLS
• 2017-02-01 Listed $25,000 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $634 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.