448 Red Cedar Dr · Redding, CA 96003

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1978 $69/sqft · 25% above area Est $80k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your peaceful retreat in The Redwoods, a 55+ mobile home community in Redding, California. This well-maintained, pet-friendly park offers residents a welcoming clubhouse, sparkling pool, and convenient location--perfect for an active, low-maintenance lifestyle surrounded by Northern California's natural beauty. This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-full-bath home features a desirable split floor plan that provides privacy and functionality. The thoughtful layout includes a dedicated utility room with washer and dryer hookups, making everyday chores effortless. Step inside to discover modern and thoughtful updates throughout, designed for comfort and contemporary living. Highlights include energy-efficient double sliding windows that flood the home with natural light while improving ventilation and views of the serene surroundings. Whether you're enjoying morning coffee in the spacious living areas, hosting family in the generous bedrooms, or relaxing in the private primary suite with its own full bath, this home offers the perfect blend of style, practicality, and tranquility.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Natural light
• Welcoming clubhouse

Tags

• WELCOMING CLUBHOUSE
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• DEDICATED UTILITY ROOM
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOKUPS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $707 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $100k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.35%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,007
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 24.86%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
458 Balsawood Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$60,000	$45	82
4555 Underwood Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$99,000	$69	82
301 Sapwood Dr #280	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$65,900	$46	81
323 Sapwood Dr Sp# 279 Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$89,000	$62	81
4719 Maple Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+6%)	3mo	$181,500	$119	77
4649 Underwood Dr #257	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	4mo	$75,000	$49	76
899 Tuberose Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	5mo	$99,180	$64	71
362 Lemon Dr #24	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$76,100	$61	69
470 Brushwood Dr #139	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (+13%)	6mo	$98,000	$60	65
4532 Hardwood Blvd #195	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+11%)	3mo	$76,000	$48	63
1350 Aztec Path #229	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+1%)	6mo	$95,000	$65	62
11037 Erickson Way #76	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$28,800	$21	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $34,360
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.00×
• Total profit: $111,883
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $776	-5% $742	+0% $707	+5% $673	+10% $638
Rent	-10% $568	-5% $638	+0% $707	+5% $777	+10% $847
Rate	-1.0pp $758	-0.5pp $733	base $707	+0.5pp $682	+1.0pp $655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
701 Redwood Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5–2.5	1163	$1,820	$1.56	14d	1	0.28mi
4490 Alder St Unit C Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	21d	1	0.34mi
400 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,310	$1.46	14d	1	0.40mi
4296 Clay St Unit 17 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,395	$1.55	21d	1	0.46mi
5391 Stonethrow Ct Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	44d	1	0.46mi
150 Masonic Ave Unit 1 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	14d	1	0.54mi
170 Masonic Ave #4 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	14d	1	0.55mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.55mi
636 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,010	$2.04	14d	8	0.76mi
251 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,475	$1.95	14d	1	0.78mi
4288 Bradley Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	21d	1	0.84mi
500 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1282	$2,135	$1.66	14d	4	1.31mi
6053 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	14d	1	1.36mi
6073 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	14d	1	1.38mi
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	44d	1	1.40mi
550 Mission de Oro Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,995	$1.40	21d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-04-03
    status Active 1106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1106 chars)

    Welcome to your peaceful retreat in The Redwoods, a 55+ mobile home community in Redding, California. This well-maintained, pet-friendly park offers residents a welcoming clubhouse, sparkling pool, and convenient location--perfect for an active, low-maintenance lifestyle surrounded by Northern California's natural beauty. This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-full-bath home features a desirable split floor plan that provides privacy and functionality. The thoughtful layout includes a dedicated utility room with washer and dryer hookups, making everyday chores effortless. Step inside to discover modern and thoughtful updates throughout, designed for comfort and contemporary living. Highlights include energy-efficient double sliding windows that flood the home with natural light while improving ventilation and views of the serene surroundings. Whether you're enjoying morning coffee in the spacious living areas, hosting family in the generous bedrooms, or relaxing in the private primary suite with its own full bath, this home offers the perfect blend of style, practicality, and tranquility.

18. 2026-03-16
    status Pending 1106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1106 chars)

    Welcome to your peaceful retreat in The Redwoods, a 55+ mobile home community in Redding, California. This well-maintained, pet-friendly park offers residents a welcoming clubhouse, sparkling pool, and convenient location--perfect for an active, low-maintenance lifestyle surrounded by Northern California's natural beauty. This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-full-bath home features a desirable split floor plan that provides privacy and functionality. The thoughtful layout includes a dedicated utility room with washer and dryer hookups, making everyday chores effortless. Step inside to discover modern and thoughtful updates throughout, designed for comfort and contemporary living. Highlights include energy-efficient double sliding windows that flood the home with natural light while improving ventilation and views of the serene surroundings. Whether you're enjoying morning coffee in the spacious living areas, hosting family in the generous bedrooms, or relaxing in the private primary suite with its own full bath, this home offers the perfect blend of style, practicality, and tranquility.

19. 2026-02-21
    listed $99,900 Active 1106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1106 chars)

    Welcome to your peaceful retreat in The Redwoods, a 55+ mobile home community in Redding, California. This well-maintained, pet-friendly park offers residents a welcoming clubhouse, sparkling pool, and convenient location--perfect for an active, low-maintenance lifestyle surrounded by Northern California's natural beauty. This beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-full-bath home features a desirable split floor plan that provides privacy and functionality. The thoughtful layout includes a dedicated utility room with washer and dryer hookups, making everyday chores effortless. Step inside to discover modern and thoughtful updates throughout, designed for comfort and contemporary living. Highlights include energy-efficient double sliding windows that flood the home with natural light while improving ventilation and views of the serene surroundings. Whether you're enjoying morning coffee in the spacious living areas, hosting family in the generous bedrooms, or relaxing in the private primary suite with its own full bath, this home offers the perfect blend of style, practicality, and tranquility.

20. 2014-11-11
    soldstatus $30,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    ''THE REDWOODS - FIVE STAR ADULT PARK'' Rare 3 bedroom floor plan with 2 full bathrooms. Nice fenced in yard and doggie door with steps from the living room. Spacious indoor laundry room. Covered deck with lots of shade trees. Move in ready. Space rent includes water, sewer, & trash. Active Clubhouse. Look at the pictures. FINANCING AVAILABLE !!!!

21. 2014-08-27
    listed $33,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    ''THE REDWOODS - FIVE STAR ADULT PARK'' Rare 3 bedroom floor plan with 2 full bathrooms. Nice fenced in yard and doggie door with steps from the living room. Spacious indoor laundry room. Covered deck with lots of shade trees. Move in ready. Space rent includes water, sewer, & trash. Active Clubhouse. Look at the pictures. FINANCING AVAILABLE !!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $7,336
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,761
• After-tax cash flow: $6,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+194.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Relisted — SAOR
• 2026-03-16 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-02-21 Listed $99,900 SAOR
• 2014-11-11 Sold (MLS) $30,000 SAOR
• 2014-08-27 Listed $33,900 SAOR

Property tax history

-4.7%/yr

Latest (2020): $91 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.