1618 W Jefferson St · Springfield, IL 62702

$26,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 64 Days on market

Built 2020

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2 bedroom home located in a quiet senior community of 55+. Close to many local attractions, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• Built 2020
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $26k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $768 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $26k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 41.8% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $180 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $780 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $24,440 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 126.64%
• DSCR: 6.63
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.47×
• Total profit: $47,136
• Equity at exit: $3,877

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.71×
• Total profit: $114,373
• Equity at exit: $2,248

Cash invested: $7,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62702

• Home prices YoY: -34.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$136
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$32 /mo · $390/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $768

Break-even live

Break-even rent $227

Max offer price $26,000

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,500
• Closing costs: $780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 N Park Ave Springfield, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	694	$1,035	$1.49	20d	1	0.33mi
1644 W Adams St Unit 1 Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	43d	1	0.39mi
1539 W Monroe St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	820	$2,000	$2.44	20d	1	0.43mi
216 N Lincoln Ave Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	0.48mi
203 N Glenwood Ave Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	20d	1	0.86mi
629 W Washington St Unit 4 Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	43d	1	1.03mi
401 W Elliott Ave Unit A Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	43d	1	1.31mi
424 S Durkin Dr Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	885	$925	$1.05	20d	1	1.37mi
423 W Lawrence Ave Unit 2 Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	20d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $26,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $26,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $26,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $26,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $26,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $26,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $26,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $26,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $26,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $26,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $26,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $26,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $26,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $26,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $26,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $26,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $26,000 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-04-15
    listed $26,000 Active 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom home located in a quiet senior community of 55+. Close to many local attractions, shopping, and dining.

19. 2025-12-17
    historical
20. 2023-10-19
    soldstatus $18,000 Closed
21. 2023-09-26
    listed $28,000 Active
22. 2021-08-06
    historical
23. 2021-08-06
    historical
24. 2018-09-17
    soldstatus $22,000
25. 2018-05-14
    listed $23,900
26. 2017-05-10
    soldstatus $12,000
27. 2017-03-02
    listed $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,456
• − Property taxes: −$390
• − Insurance: −$130
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$756
• Taxable income: $9,362
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,247
• After-tax cash flow: $6,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 31,033
• Household income: $51,136
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1230.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.98%
• Current HPI: 149.1926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.95%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+108.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $26,000 Fizber.com
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-19 Sold (MLS) $18,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-26 Listed $28,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-17 Sold (MLS) $22,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-14 Listed $23,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-10 Sold (MLS) $12,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-02 Listed $12,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid