452 Jones Beach Ln · Jarrell, TX 76537

$217,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Other · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,706 sqft lot $136/sqft · at area comps Est $212k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Rancho Del Cielo HOA — $100 monthly for common area maintenance; Community amenities include a pool and playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached driveway and garage; 2 covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Sewer connected (Municipal Utility District); Water connected (Municipal Utility District)
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces southeast; New construction
• Construction: Built by Lennar; Brick, cement siding and stone exterior; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: No exterior steps; Private yard; Front yard; Back yard; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Main level primary suite; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $218k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($236/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in Jarrell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $185,232 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,994
• List price: $217,999
• Delta: 2.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-39,511
• Equity at exit: $32,504

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-53,814
• Equity at exit: $18,849

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,852 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,315/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,827

Max offer price $217,999

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $81	+0% $20	+5% $-42	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-53	+0% $20	+5% $93	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $75	base $20	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	24d	1	0.15mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	44d	1	0.16mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	5d	1	0.16mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	21d	1	0.20mi
112 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1897	$1,890	$1.00	18d	1	0.20mi
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	44d	1	0.23mi
100 Tugboat Annie WAY Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1984	$1,799	$0.91	44d	1	0.26mi
544 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	44d	1	0.27mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,775	$1.11	18d	1	0.28mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	3d	1	0.30mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	44d	1	0.40mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	15d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $217,999 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $217,999 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $217,999 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $217,999 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $216,499 Active 32 DOM

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $216,499 Active 30 DOM

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $215,999 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,999 Active 25 DOM

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,999 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $214,999 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,999 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,999 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,999 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,999 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $214,999 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

16. 2026-05-14
    listed $233,999 Active 616-char remark
17. 2026-05-09
    price $233,999 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

18. 2026-05-05
    listed $236,999 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,315 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,989 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,674/yr (+$223/mo · 203.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$1,315
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,778
• − Management: −$1,778
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$3,487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$837
• After-tax cash flow: $1,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-level home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern amenities. It offers a spacious open floorplan and a private owner's suite, making it ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $217,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $217,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $217,499 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $216,499 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $215,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $216,499 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $215,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $216,499 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $216,499 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $215,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $215,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $214,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $214,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Listed $233,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $233,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Listed $236,999 Zillow

Property tax history

-7.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,315 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.