7114 Marye Rd · Lake Land'Or, VA 22551

$160,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1900 $174/sqft · 27% below area Est $220k · 27% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Conveniently located on 1.72 acres, this property offers a flat, highly usable lot with a functional layout and plenty of space. The level terrain provides easy access and flexibility across the parcel. An existing home is on site, and the property is being sold as-is. Enjoy a spacious setting while remaining close to nearby amenities and major roadways.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Spacious setting
• 1.72 acres

Tags

• 1.72 ACRES
• FLAT LOT
• USABLE LOT
• LEVEL TERRAIN
• EASY ACCESS
• SPACIOUS SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport with 2 spaces; Driveway parking; 2 total garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic; Hot water: Oil
• Home design: Detached structure; Above-grade finished living space
• Construction: Masonry construction; Other foundation details; Other structures above and below grade; Year built: estimated
• Exterior features: Property is outside city limits; Tidal water: No

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil fuel); Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: No basement; 4 total rooms; Finished above-grade living area (assessor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Land'Or — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.77%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,115
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -27.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,131
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $22,140
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22551

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,638 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $725/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $418	-5% $373	+0% $327	+5% $282	+10% $237
Rent	-10% $198	-5% $263	+0% $327	+5% $392	+10% $457
Rate	-1.0pp $408	-0.5pp $368	base $327	+0.5pp $286	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    listed $169,000 Active 356-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $725 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,312 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$587/yr (+$49/mo · 80.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$725
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,572
• − Management: −$1,572
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $1,364
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$327
• After-tax cash flow: $3,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Land'Or

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Spotsylvania County · 138,364 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 24,146
• Household income: $110,370
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.42%
• Current HPI: 284.319
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $160,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $725 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.