10 Picasso Ct · Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ 08757

$279,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1978 10,681 sqft lot Est $340k · 18% under $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Picture yourself tucked away at the end of a quaint cul-de-sac in the Adult Community of Holiday City, surrounded by a mature tree-lined backyard offering peace, privacy, and serenity. Enjoy the ease of living with no through traffic, while a charming path leading you right to the clubhouse and pool -- no driving, no parking headaches, just pure convenience and relaxation right outside your door. Move right into this beautifully maintained 2 bedroom/2 bath ranch with a charming open front porch, Living/Dining room combo, open kitchen w/breakfast bar overlooking your Den making for a great spacious gathering area. Additional highlights include a brand new 25-year roof installed in 2023, offering peace of mind for years to come.

Key facts

• Clubhouse and pool
• Brand new roof
• Open front porch

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• MATURE TREE-LINED BACKYARD
• CLUBHOUSE AND POOL
• OPEN FRONT PORCH
• BREAKFAST BAR
• BRAND NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee $155 quarterly; HOA includes common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, pool(s), recreation facility; Community amenities: clubhouse, common grounds, community center, swimming pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage (1 space); Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Located in a 55+ senior community
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Detached structure
• Exterior features: Community pool; Lot dimensions approximately 89 x 120

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (including 2 full baths on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard hot water heating; Natural gas heating fuel; Central A/C (electric)
• Interior features: Attic; Breakfast area; Stall shower; Ceiling fan(s); Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Hot water: Natural gas

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.2% in Holiday City-Berkeley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Regional Middle School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #279 of 431 statewide, top 66%, 716 students, 37% FRL); Central Regional High School (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #312 of 399 statewide, top 79%, 1,606 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 509 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,510/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $279k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,035 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.49%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $340,032
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Port Royal Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$420,000	$341	84
14 Picasso Ct	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,364 (+11%)	0mo	$375,000	$275	81
194 Port Royal Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,364 (+11%)	0mo	$420,000	$308	71
25 Spanish Wells St	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,232 (0%)	1mo	$340,000	$276	66
211 Bonaire Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,264 (+3%)	1mo	$305,000	$241	64
32 Bonaire Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,124 (-9%)	1mo	$240,100	$214	58
5 Martinique Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,124 (-9%)	0mo	$324,888	$289	57
18 Saint David Dr	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,124 (-9%)	1mo	$305,000	$271	57
49 Eton Rd	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,318 (+7%)	1mo	$315,200	$239	56
324 Saint Thomas Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,124 (-9%)	0mo	$339,000	$302	54
63 Eton Rd	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,331 (+8%)	1mo	$260,000	$195	54
495 Jamaica Blvd	0.50mi	2/1.0	1,092 (-11%)	0mo	$325,000	$298	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-39,011
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-25,955
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,056/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,387

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $176	+0% $97	+5% $18	+10% $-61
Rent	-10% $-101	-5% $-2	+0% $97	+5% $196	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $168	base $97	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	8d	1	0.28mi
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	0d	1	0.48mi
59 Guadeloupe Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1126	$2,300	$2.04	0d	1	0.54mi
2 York St Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1105	$2,200	$1.99	0d	1	0.91mi
10 Purnell St Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	0d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $279,000 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-05-11
   listed $279,000 Active 737-char remark
5. 2026-05-08
   listed $279,000 Active 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   Picture yourself tucked away at the end of a quaint cul-de-sac in the Adult Community of Holiday City, surrounded by a mature tree-lined backyard offering peace, privacy, and serenity. Enjoy the ease of living with no through traffic, while a charming path leading you right to the clubhouse and pool -- no driving, no parking headaches, just pure convenience and relaxation right outside your door. Move right into this beautifully maintained 2 bedroom/2 bath ranch with a charming open front porch, Living/Dining room combo, open kitchen w/breakfast bar overlooking your Den making for a great spacious gathering area. Additional highlights include a brand new 25-year roof installed in 2023, offering peace of mind for years to come.

6. 2017-10-04
   soldstatus $145,000
7. 2017-09-28
   soldstatus $145,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (221 chars)

   Great Location! Desirable ''Brick Front Lakeview'' model on a cul-de-sac with a private backyard. Short walk to pool and Clubhouse! Furnace, AC, Roof, Gas hot water heater and Windows all updated within the last 12 years!

8. 2017-09-12
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (221 chars)

   Great Location! Desirable ''Brick Front Lakeview'' model on a cul-de-sac with a private backyard. Short walk to pool and Clubhouse! Furnace, AC, Roof, Gas hot water heater and Windows all updated within the last 12 years!

9. 2017-08-30
   listed $139,700 Active

   Show marketing remark (221 chars)

   Great Location! Desirable ''Brick Front Lakeview'' model on a cul-de-sac with a private backyard. Short walk to pool and Clubhouse! Furnace, AC, Roof, Gas hot water heater and Windows all updated within the last 12 years!

10. 2010-06-08
    soldstatus $105,000
11. 2010-06-01
    soldstatus $105,000
12. 2010-02-03
    listed $124,900
13. 2003-08-22
    soldstatus $140,000
14. 2003-07-10
    historical
15. 2003-05-16
    listed $147,500
16. 1990-08-09
    soldstatus $79,000
17. 1982-12-01
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,002 · $417/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,945/yr (+$162/mo · 63.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$3,056
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,410
• − Management: −$2,410
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$3,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$844
• After-tax cash flow: $2,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City-Berkeley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 35,652
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+481.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-25 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $279,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $279,000 MOMLS
• 2017-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-28 Sold (MLS) $145,000 MOMLS
• 2017-09-12 Pending — MOMLS
• 2017-08-30 Listed $139,700 MOMLS
• 2010-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-01 Sold (MLS) $105,000 MOMLS
• 2010-02-03 Listed $124,900 MOMLS
• 2003-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-10 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2003-05-16 Listed $147,500 MOMLS
• 1990-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 1982-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,056 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.