16491 Connie Hall Rd · Wyndham, VA 23192

$170,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 994 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1940 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors! 2 Bedroom 1 bath fixer upper that has 994 sq ft of living space in Montpelier on a beautiful 2 acre parcel with a bonus additional . 5 acre parcel located directly across the street. This house will not qualify for traditional financing and it is being sold as is.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking; Oversized parking area; Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Shingle roof; Approximate year built
• Construction: Brick, block, frame and mixed construction
• Exterior features: Unpaved driveway; Mixed vegetation; Hardwood trees on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Bedroom 2 on second level; Additional room on second level (14.0 x 10.0)
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub and shower (on first level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; Wood and carpet flooring; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: First-level laundry room (17.6 x 7.0); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 1.7% in Wyndham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#285 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hanover County Public School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #5 of 131 in VA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 447 units permitted in Hanover County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hanover County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.87%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $17,601
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $73,466
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23192

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,899/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $709

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,419

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $805	-5% $757	+0% $709	+5% $661	+10% $613
Rent	-10% $526	-5% $617	+0% $709	+5% $800	+10% $892
Rate	-1.0pp $794	-0.5pp $752	base $709	+0.5pp $665	+1.0pp $620

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 287-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   listed $170,000 Pending 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,899 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,899 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,899
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $6,125
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,470
• After-tax cash flow: $7,036/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hanover County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101830
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,386
• Composite: 70.37/100
• National rank: #268
• State rank: #5 of 131 in VA

Livability — Wyndham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #10202

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,445

Population outlook (Hanover County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,687 people
• By 2030: 115,373 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 120,828 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 123,591 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 132,168 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 130,105 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hanover

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 36.6% · R 62.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.8pp toward D · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.98%
• Current HPI: 248.7102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $170,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,899 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.