19 Grayson Village Dr Lot 171 · Ruckersville, VA 22923

$321,630

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Townhouse · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,178 sqft lot Est $318k · at est. $141/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Rutledge - This brand-new home is under construction for move-in with an estimated completion date of July 2026 - where comfort meets style in this modern 3-bed, 2.5-bath townhome. This homesite features spacious common area behind it and will not last long! The spacious main-level family room is perfect for movie nights or entertaining, flowing seamlessly into the open-concept kitchen and dining area. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath for a spa-like experience. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath provide plenty of space for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy up to $17,500 in incentives for a limited time with our preferred le

Key facts

• Spacious common area
• Open-concept kitchen
• 2 pools

Tags

• SPACIOUS COMMON AREA
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• EN-SUITE BATH
• AMENITY-FILLED COMMUNITY
• 2 POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $322k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Ruckersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#318 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nathanael Greene Primary (347 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $282,962 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
80 Sophie Kathryn Dr Lot 136	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$326,630	$222	97
84 Sophie Kathryn Dr Lot 137	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$308,990	$210	97
30 Grayson Village Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	2mo	$309,990	$211	96
20 Grayson Village Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	2mo	$324,393	$221	96
44 Grayson Village Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$318,990	$217	96
76 Sophie Kathryn Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$318,253	$216	96
40 Grayson Village Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$316,730	$215	96
34 Grayson Village Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$299,990	$204	96
45 Grayson Village Dr #177	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$324,630	$221	96
28 Grayson Village Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$299,990	$204	92
66 Grayson Village Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$321,990	$219	90
56 Grayson Village Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	4mo	$297,490	$202	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-60,161
• Equity at exit: $47,956

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-62,385
• Equity at exit: $27,809

Cash invested: $90,056 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,687
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$402 /mo · $4,824/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$141
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,992

Max offer price $303,063

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $-17	+0% $-128	+5% $-239	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-352	-5% $-240	+0% $-128	+5% $-17	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-47	base $-128	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,408
• Closing costs: $9,649
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	14d	1	0.77mi
591 Preddy Creek Rd Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	4d	1	1.01mi
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	15d	1	1.14mi
100 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	2.0	2.0–2.5	1272	$2,099	$1.65	0d	23	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $141 · $1,692/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   listed $321,630 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,016
• − Property taxes: −$4,824
• − Insurance: −$1,608
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,716
• − Management: −$2,716
• − HOA: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$9,357
• Taxable loss: −$6,975
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new townhome is under construction with a completion date of July 2026. It offers modern finishes, new construction, and is move-in ready for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's aesthetic and appeal to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Interior furnishings — Completes the home's look and makes it move-in ready for both buyers and renters.
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's aesthetic and appeal to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Interior furnishings — Completes the home's look and makes it move-in ready for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ruckersville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #11455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-03-03 Listed $321,630 CAAR