776 Pony Track Rd · Henderson, MD 19934

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured public records · 174 Days on market

Built 2008 3.30 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

If you are seeking seclusion in a rural setting, this is the home for you! 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom Class C doublewide on a 3.30 +/- acre, mostly wooded parcel. Located approximately 15 miles from the Dover Air Force Base and approximately 45 miles from the beach and Atlantic Ocean in Lewes and Rehoboth Beach. Property is being sold in as-is condition. Bank approved short sale.   All offers responded to within 24-48 hours.

Key facts

• 3.3 acre lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 174 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Manufactured home; Modular/Manufactured construction; Single-story entry (all main living on main level)
• Construction: Built year recorded by assessor; Crawl space foundation; Building winterized
• Exterior features: Lot with trees/wooded

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level; Two full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: No basement; Living area recorded from assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#487 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Caesar Rodney School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #9 of 26 in DE (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1,201 units permitted in Kent County in 2024 (116 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kent County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $180k implies a 1699% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.55%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,666
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $40,955
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19934

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,993 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $853/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Active
2. 2026-03-09
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-13
   price $179,900
4. 2025-12-20
   price $194,900
5. 2025-12-20
   status Active
6. 2025-11-14
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2025-10-01
   price $199,900
8. 2025-09-09
   price $214,900
9. 2025-08-15
   listed $239,900 Active
10. 1989-02-01
    soldstatus $10,000
11. 1989-02-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $853 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,407 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$554/yr (+$46/mo · 64.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$853
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $3,025
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$726
• After-tax cash flow: $5,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caesar Rodney School District
• NCES district ID: 1000180
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $61,187
• Composite: 33.4/100
• National rank: #5475
• State rank: #9 of 26 in DE

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #487
• US rank: #26999

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,579

Population outlook (Kent County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,477 people
• By 2030: 204,351 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 222,135 · +14.2%
• By 2050: 236,483 · +21.6%
• By 2075: 266,327 · +36.9%
• By 2100: 275,335 · +41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 24% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kent

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 48.2% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 9.8pp · 2024: 2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.0 2020: D+4.1 2016: R+4.9 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.19%
• Current HPI: 185.0938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1699.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-09 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $194,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-20 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-14 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $214,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $239,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1989-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1989-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $853 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.