29961 Stony Forest Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$349,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,722 sqft · Land · 54 Days on market

Built 2026 5,200 sqft lot $90/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Entry leads past utility room and mud room. Home office with French door entry. Large family room opens to dining area. Kitchen hosts a corner walk-in pantry and a 4-burner gas cooktop. Secluded primary suite. Primary bath features dual vanities, a walk-in closet, linen closet, and a large glass enclosed shower. Secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Covered backyard patio. Two-car garage.

Key facts

• Utility room
• French door entry
• Dining area

Tags

• UTILITY ROOM
• MUD ROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• FRENCH DOOR ENTRY
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $237,069 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.17%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $162,549
• Equity at exit: $315,218

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $484,266
• Equity at exit: $679,779

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,714/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,802

Max offer price $289,714

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-143	-5% $-242	+0% $-341	+5% $-440	+10% $-539
Rent	-10% $-528	-5% $-434	+0% $-341	+5% $-247	+10% $-153
Rate	-1.0pp $-164	-0.5pp $-252	base $-341	+0.5pp $-431	+1.0pp $-524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	44d	1	0.10mi
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	44d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 394-char remark

   Show marketing remark (394 chars)

   Entry leads past utility room and mud room. Home office with French door entry. Large family room opens to dining area. Kitchen hosts a corner walk-in pantry and a 4-burner gas cooktop. Secluded primary suite. Primary bath features dual vanities, a walk-in closet, linen closet, and a large glass enclosed shower. Secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Covered backyard patio. Two-car garage.

2. 2026-04-10
   price $349,900 394-char remark

   Show marketing remark (394 chars)

   Entry leads past utility room and mud room. Home office with French door entry. Large family room opens to dining area. Kitchen hosts a corner walk-in pantry and a 4-burner gas cooktop. Secluded primary suite. Primary bath features dual vanities, a walk-in closet, linen closet, and a large glass enclosed shower. Secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Covered backyard patio. Two-car garage.

3. 2026-03-11
   listed $354,900 Active 394-char remark

   Show marketing remark (394 chars)

   Entry leads past utility room and mud room. Home office with French door entry. Large family room opens to dining area. Kitchen hosts a corner walk-in pantry and a 4-burner gas cooktop. Secluded primary suite. Primary bath features dual vanities, a walk-in closet, linen closet, and a large glass enclosed shower. Secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Covered backyard patio. Two-car garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,714 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,403 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,689/yr (+$391/mo · 273.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$1,714
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,276
• − Management: −$2,276
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$10,426
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,502
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,586/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $354,900 HARMLS