1017 Shady Oaks Dr · Ennis, TX 75119

$251,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · Land · 12 Days on market

Built 2025 5,062 sqft lot $79/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Prairie View - Ramsey Floorplan - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design
• Owner's suite

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.5% in Ennis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#304 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ennis ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #411 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Houston El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 302 students, 77% FRL); Ennis J H (math 41% / reading 44%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 886 students, 69% FRL); Ennis H S (math 37% / reading 34%, grade F, #941 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 1,791 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 364 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $227,706 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.26%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-28,774
• Equity at exit: $37,574

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-9,981
• Equity at exit: $21,788

Cash invested: $70,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75119

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,322
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,217/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,034

Max offer price $251,999

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $263	+0% $192	+5% $121	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $12	-5% $102	+0% $192	+5% $282	+10% $372
Rate	-1.0pp $319	-0.5pp $256	base $192	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,000
• Closing costs: $7,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1215 Knoll Dr Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	4d	1	1.15mi
1107 Knoll Dr Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1739	$2,200	$1.27	0d	1	1.22mi
1200 Canterbury Ln Ennis, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,250	$1.49	12d	1	1.30mi
1213 Wildflower St Ennis, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,100	$1.24	3d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $251,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,217 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,612 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,394/yr (+$283/mo · 278.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,116
• − Property taxes: −$1,217
• − Insurance: −$1,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,186
• − Management: −$2,186
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$7,331
• Taxable loss: −$1,919
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$461
• After-tax cash flow: $2,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ennis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818540
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,105
• Composite: 34.14/100
• National rank: #5283
• State rank: #411 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ennis

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #6893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ennis, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 31,866
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,866
• Household income: $77,053
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 13% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.30%
• Current HPI: 253.0134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $251,999 NTREIS