223 Faith Ln · Tioga, TX 76271

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 652 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 10,542 sqft lot $195/sqft · 14% below area Est $347k · 14% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BUILDER IS OFFERING 4% INTEREST, SPECIAL PROVISIONS APPLY. Located in the vibrant heart of Tioga, this charming single-story Craftsman home offers comfort, convenience, and timeless style. Perfectly situated near Tioga schools, it features an open floor plan that welcomes you with warmth and functionality, ideal for modern living. The spacious primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an ensuite bathroom featuring dual sinks, a walk-in shower, linen storage, and a generous walk-in closet. Culinary enthusiasts will appreciate the gourmet kitchen, complete with a central island, granite countertops, and a roomy walk-in pantry. Practicality is seamlessly incorporated with a dedicated utility room for added convenience. Unwind in the cozy living room, designed for relaxation and gatherings. Additional highlights include a two-car garage, a covered back patio, energy-efficient windows and appliances, and a beautifully landscaped yard equipped with a sprinkler system and rain gutters. This home is truly a blend of style, comfort, and a prime location—a rare find ready to be cherished!

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Tioga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tioga ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #226 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 652 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $263,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 652 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,563
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -13.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 Faith Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,609 (+5%)	2mo	$315,000	$196	90
404 N Florence St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+0%)	2mo	$342,500	$223	79
713 Arapaho Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,667 (+9%)	3mo	$275,000	$165	72
615 N Lamar St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+14%)	4mo	$400,000	$230	69
402 E Main St	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,529 (-0%)	3mo	$299,999	$196	66
718 Arapaho Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (-9%)	3mo	$375,000	$269	62
603 Mohawk Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+9%)	9mo	$445,000	$266	60
401 Cutler St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,476 (-4%)	10mo	$229,000	$155	59
714 Mohawk Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+12%)	10mo	$439,900	$257	57
504 N Texas St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,661 (+8%)	3mo	$525,000	$316	56
1008 N Main St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+5%)	9mo	$349,900	$218	51
1207 Mary Ann Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,762 (+15%)	3mo	$349,000	$198	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $101,792
• Equity at exit: $216,443

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $304,253
• Equity at exit: $419,802

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.2 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $349,000 ($225/sqft)
• Median days on market: 185 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76271

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$621 /mo · $7,452/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,929

Max offer price $267,106

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-96	+0% $-181	+5% $-265	+10% $-350
Rent	-10% $-394	-5% $-287	+0% $-181	+5% $-74	+10% $33
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-104	base $-181	+0.5pp $-258	+1.0pp $-337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
618 Kyle Dr Tioga, TX	4.0	2.0	1741	$2,700	$1.55	93d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 652 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 651 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $299,000 Active 650 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $299,000 Active 649 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $299,000 Active 648 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $299,000 Active 647 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $299,000 Active 644 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $299,000 Active 642 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $299,000 Active 640 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $299,000 Active 639 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,000 Active 637 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,000 Active 636 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,000 Active 635 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $299,000 Active 634 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $299,000 Active 633 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,000 Active 631 DOM
17. 2026-07-17
    days on market $299,000 Active 630 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $299,000 Active 627 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $299,000 Active 626 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $299,000 Active 625 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $299,000 Active 624 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $299,000 Active 623 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 622 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 620 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $299,000 Active 619 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 618 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 617 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 616 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 615 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 614 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 613 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $299,000 Active 612 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $299,000 Active 611 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $299,000 Active 610 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $299,000 Active 609 DOM
36. 2026-06-23
    days on market $299,000 Active 606 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $299,000 Active 605 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $299,000 Active 604 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $299,000 Active 603 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $299,000 Active 601 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $299,000 Active 600 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 599 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $299,000 Active 598 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $299,000 Active 597 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $299,000 Active 596 DOM
46. 2026-06-12
    days on market $299,000 Active 595 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 592 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 591 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 590 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 588 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,452 · $621/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,452 · $621/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$7,452
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,723
• After-tax cash flow: $-444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story Craftsman home in Tioga is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, spacious primary bathroom, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is move-in ready and offers a great opportunity for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Installing a smart thermostat — Saves energy and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tioga ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842870
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,096
• Composite: 40.38/100
• National rank: #3735
• State rank: #226 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Tioga

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #656
• US rank: #12339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tioga, TX
• County: Grayson · 134,540 people
• City population: 1,864
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,864
• Household income: $85,682
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.47%
• Current HPI: 297.1567
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $299,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $319,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $339,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+314.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,452 · +314.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.