58 Joyceton Way · Kettering, MD 20774

$310,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,292 sqft · Townhouse public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1988 1,670 sqft lot $240/sqft · 19% below area Est $383k · 19% under $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Colonial townhouse in Upper Marlboro offering about 1,250 sq ft across 2 levels plus a full basement. Features a classic brick front, spacious living and dining areas, central A/C, and natural gas heating. The layout is bright and functional, perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, making it a great option for homeowners or investors.

Key facts

• Colonial townhouse
• Brick front
• Natural gas heating

Tags

• COLONIAL TOWNHOUSE
• BRICK FRONT
• FULL BASEMENT
• CENTRAL A/C
• NATURAL GAS HEATING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area approximately 1,292 (assessor); Below-grade unfinished area approximately 640 (assessor); Ownership assessed and tax information available
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $63 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick, frame and vinyl siding construction with asphalt and concrete components; Full basement
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Living room; Master bedroom; Full bath; Half bath

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Kettering — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#185 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kettering Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #699 of 860 statewide, top 84%, 407 students, 76% FRL); Kettering Middle (math 6% / reading 27%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 915 students, 61% FRL); Largo High (math 14% / reading 38%, grade F, #162 of 222 statewide, top 73%, 939 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $310k implies a 235% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,845 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.40%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,774
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -19.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10536 Joyceton Dr	0.25mi	4/3.5	1,336 (+3%)	1mo	$415,000	$311	78
918 Lake Overlook Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,312 (+2%)	3mo	$420,000	$320	68
11246 Kettering Pl	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (+2%)	1mo	$317,000	$240	66
853 Faraway Ct	0.55mi	4/3.5	1,335 (+3%)	2mo	$385,000	$288	64
10505 Joyceton Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,428 (+10%)	3mo	$320,000	$224	62
10749 Kitchener Ct	0.63mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,293 (+0%)	2mo	$435,000	$336	60
11234 Kettering Pl	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-7%)	1mo	$305,000	$254	57
11206 Hannah Way #4	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,438 (+11%)	1mo	$255,000	$177	56
10167 Scotch Hill Dr Unit 28-3	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (-3%)	2mo	$305,000	$244	52
11248 Hannah Way #8	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,446 (+12%)	1mo	$280,000	$194	50
10144 Scotch Hill Dr Unit 26-3	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (-3%)	2mo	$199,000	$159	50
11303 Kettering Cir	0.49mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,100 (-15%)	2mo	$365,000	$332	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-39,191
• Equity at exit: $46,222

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-6,380
• Equity at exit: $26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20774

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,958 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$418 /mo · $5,019/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,830

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $189	+0% $101	+5% $13	+10% $-74
Rent	-10% $-133	-5% $-16	+0% $101	+5% $218	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $180	base $101	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Joyceton Way Upper Marlboro, MD	4.0	2.5	1212	$3,200	$2.64	45d	1	0.07mi
12 Joyceton Ter Upper Marlboro, MD	4.0	3.5	1868	$800	$0.43	45d	1	0.13mi
214 Castleton Ter Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	1478	$2,650	$1.79	45d	1	0.35mi
10703 Campus Way S Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	3.5	1376	$2,925	$2.13	1d	1	0.35mi
11215 Joyceton Dr Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	1.5	1120	$2,400	$2.14	45d	1	0.37mi
11304 Southlakes Dr Bowie, MD	3.0	2.5	1360	$3,100	$2.28	1d	1	0.39mi
11433 Abbottswood Ct Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	1.5	1137	$2,100	$1.85	14d	1	0.59mi
10246 Prince Pl Apt 107 Largo, MD	3.0	2.0	1289	$2,300	$1.78	1d	1	0.71mi
728 Parev Way Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	3.0	1652	$3,190	$1.93	45d	1	1.10mi
743 Saint Michaels Dr Bowie, MD	3.0	2.5	1080	$2,850	$2.64	14d	1	1.12mi
702 Anoosh Ct Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	1452	$3,000	$2.07	45d	1	1.12mi
735 Parev Way Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	1640	$3,150	$1.92	45d	1	1.12mi
809 Saint Michaels Dr Bowie, MD	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,650	$2.45	1d	1	1.14mi
67 S Harry Truman Dr Largo, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,375	$2.34	0d	45	1.16mi
9701 Summit Cir Upper Marlboro, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1107	$2,951	$2.66	1d	41	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 421-char remark
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $310,000 Active 421-char remark
3. 1988-01-27
   soldstatus $92,550

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,019 · $418/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,019 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$5,019
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,840
• − Management: −$2,840
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$3,887
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$933
• After-tax cash flow: $2,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Kettering

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #8276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kettering, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 51,816
• Household income: $128,259
• Rent vs Own: 24.4% rent · 75.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 773.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% Two or more races 5% White 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.06%
• Current HPI: 264.2372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.49%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+235.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $310,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1988-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $92,550 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,019 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.