16567 Buckner Pond Way · Crest Hill, IL 60403

$240,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2006 2,655 sqft lot Est $253k · at est. $473/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Carillon Lakes, a premier 55+ active adult community where every day feels a little like a getaway. This ranch-style Ellison model offers comfortable single-level living with 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a 2-car attached garage. The home features a spacious living and dining area, a kitchen with ceramic tile flooring, white cabinetry, a breakfast bar, pantry, and all appliances included. A separate laundry room and additional storage space add everyday convenience. The primary suite offers a large walk-in closet, two additional closets, and a private bath with dual sinks, soaking tub, and separate shower. A sliding glass door leads to a private patio, perfect for enjoying your m

Key facts

• Tennis
• Pickleball
• Private patio

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PRIVATE PATIO
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR POOLS
• PICKLEBALL
• TENNIS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Carillon Lakes; Located in Crest Hill (Lockport township); Lot dimensions approx. 59 x 45
• Financial info: Ownership: Fee simple with homeowners association; Special service area: No
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $473; HOA fee covers insurance, security, clubhouse, exercise facilities, pool, exterior maintenance, lawn care, scavenger and snow removal; Community amenities include exercise room, health club, golf course, on-site manager, park, party room, indoor pool, pool, tennis courts, spa/hot tub, clubhouse and picnic area; Manager off-site; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with two garage spaces; Garage owned with garage door opener; Asphalt drive/parking
• Security: On-site guard at gated entrance (gate house access procedures for clubhouse)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers and 100 amp service
• Home design: Attached single property; Townhouse - ranch model (Ellison); One entry level; Located in an adult community with commuter train and interstate access
• Construction: Approximately 16-20 years old; Vinyl siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Common grounds; Landscaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eating area with breakfast bar; Island; Pantry closet
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level with full bath including double sink, tub and separate shower; Additional bedroom on main level (11 x 14)
• Flooring: Carpet in living areas and bedrooms; Ceramic tile in kitchen and laundry; Laminate flooring noted
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Walk-in closets; Ceiling fan(s); 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry (washer and dryer included)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.2% in Crest Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#792 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Richland GSD 88A (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #326 of 620 in IL (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Richland Elem School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #850 of 2,056 statewide, top 45%, 800 students, 0% FRL); Lockport Township High Sch East (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #117 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 3,872 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $240,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.00%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,525
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16613 Buckner Pond Way	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,263 (-2%)	4mo	$242,500	$192	87
16501 Buckner Pond Way #16501	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	1mo	$271,000	$204	86
16459 Buckner Pond Way	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	4mo	$270,000	$203	83
21253 Legion Lake Ct	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,373 (+6%)	5mo	$255,000	$186	81
16400 Crescent Lake Dr #16400	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,295 (0%)	6mo	$244,000	$188	75
16346 Crescent Lake Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	3mo	$261,000	$196	72
16134 Powderhorn Lake Way	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,292 (-0%)	3mo	$269,000	$208	69
16242 Tomahawk Lake Ct	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,380 (+7%)	2mo	$250,000	$181	62
21471 Lake St Clair Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,257 (-3%)	5mo	$242,000	$193	61
21456 Wolf Lake Way #0	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,330 (+3%)	1mo	$260,000	$195	61
21522 Lake St Clair Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,373 (+6%)	4mo	$265,000	$193	55
21533 Papoose Lake Ct	0.65mi	2/1.0	1,380 (+7%)	0mo	$270,000	$196	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-31,497
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-17,227
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60403

• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,663 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,920/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$473
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,521

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $180	+0% $112	+5% $44	+10% $-24
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $7	+0% $112	+5% $217	+10% $323
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $173	base $112	+0.5pp $50	+1.0pp $-13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16340 Crescent Lake Dr Crest Hill, IL	2.0	2.0	1332	$2,700	$2.03	5d	1	0.49mi
2513 Sumac Dr Joliet, IL	2.0	2.5	1424	$2,450	$1.72	0d	1	0.96mi
700 S Weber Rd Romeoville, IL	3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$3,305	$3.38	0d	1	1.19mi
2303 Greengold St Crest Hill, IL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	0d	1	1.35mi
2430 Caton Crest Ct Crest Hill, IL	3.0	2.5	1551	$2,900	$1.87	18d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $473 · $5,676/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $240,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,920 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,684 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,764/yr (+$147/mo · 91.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,920
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,557
• − Management: −$2,557
• − HOA: −$5,676
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$2,378
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$571
• After-tax cash flow: $1,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland GSD 88A
• NCES district ID: 1733450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $48,906
• Composite: 21.96/100
• National rank: #8217
• State rank: #326 of 620 in IL

Livability — Crest Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #792
• US rank: #15733

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crest Hill, IL
• City population: 17,226
• Population (ZIP): 17,226

Population outlook (Will County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 705,368 people
• By 2030: 708,154 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 702,692 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 680,249 · -3.6%
• By 2075: 611,990 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 516,215 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Will

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 48.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.3 2016: D+5.7 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.15%
• Current HPI: 205.702
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $240,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-17 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,920 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.