511 River Rd · Chelsea, ME 04330

$379,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 936 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2004 2.20 ac lot $405/sqft · 146% above area Est $292k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 4/18 FROM 1PM TO 3PM. COME TAKE A LOOK!!! Welcome to this stunning 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath open concept Chalet home filled with natural light and thoughtfully designed for comfort and style. The home features elegant granite countertops, hardwood and marble tile flooring, creating a warm yet refined atmosphere. Step outside to the expansive front deck, an ideal spot to unwind after a long day, sip your morning coffee, or take in the night sky under the stars. Enjoy additional living space with a finished bonus room in the basement perfect for a home office, gym, or entertainment area. The property also includes a spacious 2-car garage with extra storage above, all situated on a generous 2.2 acre lot lined with mature apple trees and berry bushes. Conveniently located just a short drive from the Gardiner and Augusta waterfronts, as well as their vibrant downtown areas offering shopping, dining, and local attractions.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Marble tile flooring
• Finished bonus room

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• MARBLE TILE FLOORING
• EXPANSIVE FRONT DECK
• FINISHED BONUS ROOM
• 2 CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath multifamily listed at $379k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $339k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• RSU 12 (rural): math 86% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #50 of 112 in ME (top 45%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Windsor Elementary School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A+, #77 of 294 statewide, top 33%, 287 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 40% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 54 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,389/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 760% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $338,900 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.87%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,263
• List price: $379,000
• Delta: 29.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-42,690
• Equity at exit: $56,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $11,648
• Equity at exit: $32,769

Cash invested: $106,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04330

• Home prices YoY: -4.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 18.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,389 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax from tax record: −$366 /mo · $4,397/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$712
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,180

Max offer price $379,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $380	-5% $273	+0% $165	+5% $58	+10% $-49
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $32	+0% $165	+5% $299	+10% $433
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $262	base $165	+0.5pp $67	+1.0pp $-33

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$3,390
Total (2 units)			$3,389

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,750
• Closing costs: $11,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $379,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   price $379,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $389,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $389,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $389,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,000 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    price $399,000 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 4/18 FROM 1PM TO 3PM. COME TAKE A LOOK!!! Welcome to this stunning 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath open concept Chalet home filled with natural light and thoughtfully designed for comfort and style. The home features elegant granite countertops, hardwood and marble tile flooring, creating a warm yet refined atmosphere. Step outside to the expansive front deck, an ideal spot to unwind after a long day, sip your morning coffee, or take in the night sky under the stars. Enjoy additional living space with a finished bonus room in the basement perfect for a home office, gym, or entertainment area. The property also includes a spacious 2-car garage with extra storage above, all situated on a generous 2.2 acre lot lined with mature apple trees and berry bushes. Conveniently located just a short drive from the Gardiner and Augusta waterfronts, as well as their vibrant downtown areas offering shopping, dining, and local attractions.

19. 2026-04-16
    price $429,000 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 4/18 FROM 1PM TO 3PM. COME TAKE A LOOK!!! Welcome to this stunning 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath open concept Chalet home filled with natural light and thoughtfully designed for comfort and style. The home features elegant granite countertops, hardwood and marble tile flooring, creating a warm yet refined atmosphere. Step outside to the expansive front deck, an ideal spot to unwind after a long day, sip your morning coffee, or take in the night sky under the stars. Enjoy additional living space with a finished bonus room in the basement perfect for a home office, gym, or entertainment area. The property also includes a spacious 2-car garage with extra storage above, all situated on a generous 2.2 acre lot lined with mature apple trees and berry bushes. Conveniently located just a short drive from the Gardiner and Augusta waterfronts, as well as their vibrant downtown areas offering shopping, dining, and local attractions.

20. 2026-04-03
    listed $449,000 Active 945-char remark

    Show marketing remark (945 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 4/18 FROM 1PM TO 3PM. COME TAKE A LOOK!!! Welcome to this stunning 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath open concept Chalet home filled with natural light and thoughtfully designed for comfort and style. The home features elegant granite countertops, hardwood and marble tile flooring, creating a warm yet refined atmosphere. Step outside to the expansive front deck, an ideal spot to unwind after a long day, sip your morning coffee, or take in the night sky under the stars. Enjoy additional living space with a finished bonus room in the basement perfect for a home office, gym, or entertainment area. The property also includes a spacious 2-car garage with extra storage above, all situated on a generous 2.2 acre lot lined with mature apple trees and berry bushes. Conveniently located just a short drive from the Gardiner and Augusta waterfronts, as well as their vibrant downtown areas offering shopping, dining, and local attractions.

21. 2021-07-15
    soldstatus $332,200 Closed 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    showings on weekdays after 4 pm as home owner works from home on her computer. weekends can be anytime during the day

22. 2021-06-11
    status Pending 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    showings on weekdays after 4 pm as home owner works from home on her computer. weekends can be anytime during the day

23. 2021-06-05
    listed $325,000 Active 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    showings on weekdays after 4 pm as home owner works from home on her computer. weekends can be anytime during the day

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,397 · $366/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,776 · $398/mo
• Expected delta: +$379/yr (+$32/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,230
• − Property taxes: −$4,397
• − Insurance: −$1,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,253
• − Management: −$3,253
• − Depreciation: −$11,025
• Taxable loss: −$4,386
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,053
• After-tax cash flow: $3,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 12
• NCES district ID: 2314780
• Math proficiency: 86% ▲ 58.00%
• Reading proficiency: 86% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $49,792
• Composite: 72.62/100
• National rank: #197
• State rank: #50 of 112 in ME

Livability — Chelsea

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Kennebec County · 54,560 people
• Metro: Augusta-Waterville, ME
• Population (ZIP): 26,690
• Household income: $54,775
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 760.0

Population outlook (Kennebec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,421 people
• By 2030: 111,852 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 103,757 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 95,710 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 78,172 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 59,500 · -48.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kennebec

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 50.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.8pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.46%
• Current HPI: 353.9463
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Metro: Augusta-Waterville, ME
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+22.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $399,000 MREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $429,000 MREIS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $449,000 MREIS
• 2021-07-15 Sold (MLS) $332,200 MREIS
• 2021-06-11 Pending — MREIS
• 2021-06-05 Listed $325,000 MREIS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,397 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.