4625 Bardstown Rd · Chaplin, KY 40342

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 353 Days on market

Built 1974 1.99 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent investment and Fixer Upper Opportunity! Right on the Bourbon Trail could make a great VRBO. This manufactured home needs a little TLC but sits perfectly on almost 2 picturesque acres in Anderson County only minutes from Taylorsville Lake, Willisburg Lake & Beaver Lake. The home offers 3BR, 2BA with a large living room, kitchen, washer/dryer hookup and 1.5 car garage with concrete flooring and electricity. Utilities available are electric and city water but not currently on. Home is heated by wood stove and sellers used window units. Please be cautionary on the deck and around the above ground pool!! Selling 'AS IS'. Buyer would need to install a septic tank. No sewer system

Key facts

• Beaver lake
• Wood stove
• Above ground pool

Tags

• ALMOST 2 ACRES
• MINUTES FROM TAYLORSVILLE LAKE
• WILLISBURG LAKE
• BEAVER LAKE
• WOOD STOVE
• ABOVE GROUND POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on about 1.99 acres (public records)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water source; No sewer service listed
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Metal roof; Built area approximately 1,232 (building area total)
• Exterior features: Rural view; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Ceiling fans; Fireplace; Blinds on the windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#455 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Anderson County (town): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #46 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robert B. Turner Elementary School (math 46% / reading 43%, grade F, #148 of 676 statewide, top 24%, 534 students, 40% FRL); Anderson County Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #90 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 818 students, 46% FRL); Anderson County High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #40 of 254 statewide, top 19%, 1,189 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Anderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $135k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.82%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-214
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $27,560
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40342

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,459 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $568/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,027

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 353 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 352 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 351 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 350 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 349 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 347 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 346 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 343 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 342 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 341 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 338 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 337 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 336 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 335 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 334 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 333 DOM
17. 2025-12-28
    status Active
18. 2025-12-21
    historical
19. 2025-11-20
    price $135,000
20. 2025-06-24
    listed $140,000 Active
21. 1995-04-01
    soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $568 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$593/yr (+$49/mo · 104.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$568
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,400
• − Management: −$1,400
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,973
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$473
• After-tax cash flow: $3,618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anderson County
• NCES district ID: 2100120
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $52,090
• Composite: 31.76/100
• National rank: #5898
• State rank: #46 of 165 in KY

Livability — Chaplin

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #455
• US rank: #22519

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,739

Population outlook (Anderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,016 people
• By 2030: 23,318 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 23,533 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 23,119 · +0.4%
• By 2075: 21,631 · -6.0%
• By 2100: 19,180 · -16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 24.6% · R 73.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.6pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+47.6 2016: R+49.1 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.14%
• Current HPI: 265.9883
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+221.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-28 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2025-12-21 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $135,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $140,000 ImagineMLS
• 1995-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $568 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.