433 Olive St · Warren, OH 44483

$39,900

6 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,934 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1920 0.28 ac lot $14/sqft · 78% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Price just reduced owner wants sold bring in all offers. Beautiful large home at one time used as a tri plex. large basement and attic 6 bedrooms 2,934 square ftg. detached garage schools close by and downtown shopping. quaint area and home.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.5-bath multifamily listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 63.4% vs local median 6.0% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#312 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, commute F, employment F.
• Warren City (urban): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #599 of 656 in OH (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,772/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 989% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $40k implies a 698% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 63.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 204.05%
• DSCR: 10.08
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,172
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -78.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
258 Seneca Ave NE	0.21mi	5/3.5 (-1)	3,047 (+4%)	3mo	$200,000	$66	76
678 Mahoning Ave NW	0.62mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,956 (+1%)	12mo	$95,000	$32	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.26×
• Total profit: $114,578
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.89×
• Total profit: $255,776
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44483

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,772 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $772/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $1,900

Break-even live

Break-even rent $367

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 26%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$2,772
Total (3 units)			$2,772

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,900 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,900 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $39,900 Active 241-char remark
18. 2026-04-30
    historical
19. 2026-01-03
    price $51,000
20. 2025-12-18
    price $53,000
21. 2025-11-23
    price $59,000
22. 2025-04-16
    listed $61,500 Active
23. 2024-12-31
    historical
24. 2024-10-27
    price $68,000
25. 2024-04-10
    price $75,000
26. 2024-01-05
    listed $89,900 Active
27. 2017-04-21
    soldstatus $5,000 Sold
28. 2017-04-09
    status Pending
29. 2017-01-26
    listed $13,000 Active
30. 1988-11-23
    soldstatus $40,000
31. 1988-11-23
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $772 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $772 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$772
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,661
• − Management: −$2,661
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $23,575
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,658
• After-tax cash flow: $17,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren City
• NCES district ID: 3904499
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $28,222
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8299
• State rank: #599 of 656 in OH

Livability — Warren

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #5068

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, OH
• County: Trumbull County · 61,158 people
• City population: 25,805
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 25,805
• Household income: $49,017
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 989.0

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.50%
• Current HPI: 218.3455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-0.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $39,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $51,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $53,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed $59,000 MLSNOW
• 2025-04-16 Listed $61,500 MLSNOW
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2024-10-27 Price Changed $68,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $75,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-01-05 Listed $89,900 MLSNOW
• 2017-04-21 Sold (MLS) $5,000 MLSNOW
• 2017-04-09 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2017-01-26 Listed $13,000 MLSNOW
• 1988-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1988-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $772 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.