516 Vannote Dr · Toms River, NJ 08723

$280,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1940 6,098 sqft lot Est $423k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MANTOLOKING ROAD TO STREET ACROSS FROM VISITATION CHURCH PLEASE CALL MRS ORTIS FOR APPOINTMENT TO SHOW AT 477=0201 CUTE STARTER WITH DEEDED RIVER RIGHTS SELLER HAS INSTALLED A BRAND NEW GAS HEATING SYSTEM

Key facts

• Sought-after area
• Remodeled homes
• Fenced lot

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• PEACEFUL STREET
• REMODELED HOMES
• NEW COLONIAL CONSTRUCTION
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• SOUGHT-AFTER AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,044
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Fee simple ownership

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Multi-unit (zoned) cooling
• Interior features: One fireplace; Crawl space basement (unfinished)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($369/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Brick Township Public School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #330 of 472 in NJ (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 218 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $280k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,514 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $422,820
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
59 Pinehurst Rd	0.15mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,100 (+5%)	0mo	$475,000	$432	77
699 Mantoloking Rd	0.26mi	2/1.0	978 (-6%)	2mo	$415,000	$424	72
494 Manchester Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0	988 (-5%)	2mo	$399,900	$405	70
485 Monmouth Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,128 (+8%)	4mo	$412,000	$365	58
710 Baltic Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,016 (-3%)	8mo	$360,000	$354	55
769 Acorn Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (+9%)	9mo	$410,000	$360	53
701 Barberry Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0	1,111 (+6%)	2mo	$465,000	$419	52
124 Pinehurst Rd	0.22mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,199 (+15%)	7mo	$450,000	$375	52
62 Buckingham Rd	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,122 (+8%)	10mo	$430,000	$383	51
709 Marys Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+1%)	10mo	$480,000	$455	50
90 Dock Rd	0.49mi	2/1.0	940 (-10%)	9mo	$360,000	$383	49
254 Circle Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	984 (-6%)	9mo	$625,000	$635	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-43,343
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-34,933
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08723

• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,555 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$403 /mo · $4,834/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,516

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $110	+0% $31	+5% $-49	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-70	+0% $31	+5% $132	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $102	base $31	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2775 Hooper Ave Brick, NJ	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,300	$2.09	26d	1	0.86mi
444 Brick Blvd Brick Township, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	927	$2,475	$2.67	26d	1	1.15mi
101 Prosper Way Brick Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1360	$2,650	$1.95	26d	1	1.48mi
101 Prosper Way Brick Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1180	$2,450	$2.08	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 679-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,834 · $403/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,903 · $492/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,069/yr (+$89/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,834
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,453
• − Management: −$2,453
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $1,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brick Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3402220
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $68,717
• Composite: 28.31/100
• National rank: #6785
• State rank: #330 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 32,141
• Household income: $108,643
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -454.38%
• Current HPI: 350.5719
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+956.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $280,000 MOMLS
• 1997-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-27 Sold (MLS) $74,000 MOMLS
• 1997-04-21 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1997-01-16 Listed $79,900 MOMLS
• 1979-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,834 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.