41 Winchester Unit J · Centerville, OH 45458

$85,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Condo · 52 Days on market

Built 1969 Good condition $245/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LOCATION. . LOCATION. . LOCATION!! 1 bedroom, 1 bath classic brick townhome in UPTOWN Centerville with assigned covered parking and a private patio for less than you can rent. This charming townhome offers neutral LVP on lower level, newer carpet upstairs, double pane vinyl windows (2021) newer HVAC (2022) new garbage disposal (2023) New fence (2025) Washer/Dryer hookup, walk-in closet, additional finished storage space above stairwell, very low utility bills, water is covered by HOA, pet friendly greenspace and convenient to all shopping, restaurants, entertainment, medical, parks, major highways and only 20 minutes from WPAFB. Welcome Home! Wall mounted TV and shelving do not convey.

Key facts

• New garbage disposal
• Private patio
• Newer hvac

Tags

• CLASSIC BRICK TOWNHOME
• PRIVATE PATIO
• DOUBLE PANE VINYL WINDOWS
• NEWER HVAC
• NEW GARBAGE DISPOSAL
• NEW FENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is offered for sale
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Apple Property Management; Monthly association fee of $245; Association fee covers management, grounds maintenance, snow removal, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Water service included in association fees
• Home design: 2-story home; Main entry on level 1
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level (approximately 9 x 8)
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the second floor (approximately 12 x 11)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.9% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#45 in OH, #604 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Centerville City (suburban): math 62% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #163 of 656 in OH (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Centerville Primary Village South (712 students, 19% FRL); Magsig Middle School (math 54% / reading 65%, grade B, #271 of 654 statewide, top 43%, 577 students, 23% FRL); Centerville High School (math 60% / reading 84%, grade B+, #89 of 781 statewide, top 12%, 2,755 students, 15% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 13% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.67%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-8,823
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-3,908
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45458

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$245
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,054

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $122	+0% $93	+5% $63	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $0	-5% $46	+0% $93	+5% $139	+10% $185
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $114	base $93	+0.5pp $71	+1.0pp $48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
74 W Franklin St Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1030	$1,020	$0.99	16d	9	0.10mi
117 Maple Ave Washington Township, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$970	$1.21	4d	6	0.32mi
506 Stonington Cir Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	925	$1,250	$1.35	4d	9	0.69mi
551 Shelbourne Ln Dayton, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1098	$1,370	$1.25	4d	13	0.78mi
865 Revere Village Ct Dayton, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1062	$950	$0.89	4d	8	0.78mi
7677 Tours Ln Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	725	$1,295	$1.79	25d	1	0.82mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $245 · $2,940/yr
• Likely covers: watertrash
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $85,000 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $85,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-05-21
   price $85,000
10. 2026-05-07
    price $90,000
11. 2026-04-24
    price $99,000
12. 2026-04-22
    price $102,000
13. 2026-04-15
    listed $112,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,124
• − Management: −$1,124
• − HOA: −$2,940
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$70
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17
• After-tax cash flow: $1,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready condo in Centerville offers a good investment opportunity with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern kitchen appliances increase appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern kitchen appliances increase appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centerville City
• NCES district ID: 3904373
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,985
• Composite: 58.44/100
• National rank: #1005
• State rank: #163 of 656 in OH

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #604

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centerville, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 38,712
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 38,712
• Household income: $110,150
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 818.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.98%
• Current HPI: 193.0497
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-24.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $85,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $90,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $99,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $102,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $112,000 Dayton MLS