207 16th Ave S · Birmingham, AL 35205

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,359 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1939 4,356 sqft lot $74/sqft · 59% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one won't last long!! Very nice, large rooms, plenty of parking and nice front porch. ..

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1939
• Listed 101 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.42%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,752
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 59.20%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1724 1st Pl S	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,250 (-8%)	1mo	$85,000	$68	79
600 10th Ct S	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,356 (-0%)	3mo	$180,000	$133	75
1724 Center St S	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-8%)	4mo	$175,493	$140	60
45 5th Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-12%)	6mo	$152,500	$127	55
345 Iota Ave S	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,279 (-6%)	4mo	$20,000	$16	55
629 Center Pl SW	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,197 (-12%)	7mo	$65,500	$55	54
608 9th Ct S	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+10%)	6mo	$268,000	$179	52
50 1st Ave S	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+3%)	4mo	$22,000	$16	50
679 Idlewild Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+10%)	6mo	$322,000	$216	47
529 10th Ave S	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+14%)	8mo	$319,000	$207	46
2005 5th St	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,480 (+9%)	1mo	$345,000	$233	45
629 19th Ct S	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+12%)	3mo	$316,000	$207	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $9,117
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $38,987
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35205

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,206/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $843

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $463	-5% $434	+0% $406	+5% $378	+10% $349
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $352	+0% $406	+5% $460	+10% $513
Rate	-1.0pp $456	-0.5pp $431	base $406	+0.5pp $380	+1.0pp $354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
806 Gamma St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1252	$1,200	$0.96	44d	1	0.09mi
741 Center Pl SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,250	$1.14	16d	1	0.46mi
506 Alpha St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	944	$1,373	$1.45	44d	1	0.51mi
310 Gamma St S Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1001	$1,200	$1.20	16d	1	0.51mi
12 4th Ave SW Unit 1 Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1336	$1,100	$0.82	44d	1	0.58mi
856 Center Way SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,200	$1.05	44d	1	0.59mi
112 Kappa Ave S Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1034	$1,100	$1.06	44d	1	0.70mi
1101 10th Pl S Birmingham, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,825	$1.85	3d	11	0.74mi
2217-2249 Green Springs Hwy Unit 2249-E Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$910	$1.01	44d	1	0.81mi
2217-2249 Green Springs Hwy Unit 2241-M Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,109	$1.01	21d	1	0.81mi
1131 16th Ave S Unit A Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,215	$1.35	3d	1	0.87mi
1010 Beacon Pkwy E Birmingham, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	945	$2,275	$2.41	2d	18	0.90mi
1120 Beacon Pkwy E #408 Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,950	$1.32	2d	1	0.91mi
1229 Beacon Pkwy E Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$1,200	$1.06	3d	16	0.93mi
451 2nd Ave N Birmingham, AL	4.0	3.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	24d	1	1.01mi
834 Golden Gate Ln Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	44d	12	1.05mi
834 Golden Gate Ln Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	2d	13	1.05mi
925 Beacon Pkwy E Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1259	$1,199	$0.95	44d	1	1.06mi
1425 13th St S Unit A Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	44d	1	1.08mi
915 Valley Ridge Dr Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1087	$1,660	$1.53	2d	34	1.11mi
1417 13th Pl S Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,950	$1.57	21d	1	1.13mi
840 Beacon Pkwy E Unit C Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	925	$1,200	$1.30	44d	1	1.16mi
1332 14th Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.5	892	$1,075	$1.21	24d	2	1.16mi
1404 17th Ave S Unit 2 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,160	$1.29	44d	1	1.22mi
513 Valley Ave Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	44d	1	1.22mi
1409 14th St S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	940	$1,257	$1.34	15d	1	1.23mi
1414 13th Ave S Unit 1418 Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1039	$1,700	$1.64	44d	1	1.23mi
1414 13th Ave S Unit 1414 Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1039	$1,694	$1.63	44d	1	1.23mi
1414 13th Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1039	$1,772	$1.71	19d	2	1.23mi
1228 15th St S Birmingham, AL	3.0–4.0	3.0–4.0	1690	$2,689	$1.59	2d	3	1.25mi
1502 16th St S Unit ) Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	875	$995	$1.14	44d	1	1.32mi
1327 16th St S Apt 4 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	921	$1,110	$1.21	24d	1	1.36mi
1327 16th St S Unit 3 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	921	$1,143	$1.24	3d	1	1.36mi
1600 14th Ave S Unit 8 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,106	$1.23	21d	1	1.37mi
1600 14th Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,172	$1.30	15d	1	1.37mi
1508 4th Ave S Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1142	$2,222	$1.95	3d	3	1.38mi
316 Beacon Crest Ln Birmingham, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,099	$1.29	2d	7	1.38mi
413 Fulton Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	940	$525	$0.56	3d	1	1.38mi
451 2nd St N Birmingham, AL	4.0	3.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	44d	1	1.41mi
1012 Cotton Ave SW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,000	$0.81	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-03-09
    listed $99,900 Active 93-char remark

    Show marketing remark (93 chars)

    This one won't last long!! Very nice, large rooms, plenty of parking and nice front porch. ..

15. 2026-02-25
    historical $1,000
16. 2026-02-19
    price $1,000
17. 2026-02-13
    price $1,150
18. 2025-10-02
    listed $1,200
19. 2017-05-30
    soldstatus $498,000
20. 2017-01-31
    soldstatus $9,000 Sold 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Investors-the house is empty. There are no redemption rights and the house is selling "as-is".

21. 2017-01-21
    historical 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Investors-the house is empty. There are no redemption rights and the house is selling "as-is".

22. 2017-01-17
    price $15,000 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Investors-the house is empty. There are no redemption rights and the house is selling "as-is".

23. 2016-11-30
    price $24,900 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Investors-the house is empty. There are no redemption rights and the house is selling "as-is".

24. 2016-10-16
    price $28,070 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Investors-the house is empty. There are no redemption rights and the house is selling "as-is".

25. 2016-08-26
    price $31,259 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Investors-the house is empty. There are no redemption rights and the house is selling "as-is".

26. 2016-02-15
    listed $32,700 Active 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Investors-the house is empty. There are no redemption rights and the house is selling "as-is".

27. 2009-02-18
    soldstatus $19,900
28. 2001-09-18
    soldstatus $50,500
29. 1995-07-21
    soldstatus $37,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,206 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,206 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,206
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,470
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$833
• After-tax cash flow: $4,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 18,858
• Household income: $51,158
• Rent vs Own: 67.2% rent · 32.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1468.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.42%
• Current HPI: 291.38
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.59%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+166.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $99,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-25 Rental Removed $1,000 APPFOLIO
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $1,000 APPFOLIO
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-02 Listed for Rent $1,200 APPFOLIO
• 2017-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $498,000 Public Records
• 2017-01-31 Sold (MLS) $9,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-01-21 Delisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-01-17 Price Changed $15,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-11-30 Price Changed $24,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-10-16 Price Changed $28,070 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-08-26 Price Changed $31,259 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2016-02-15 Listed $32,700 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2009-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $19,900 Public Records
• 2001-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $50,500 Public Records
• 1995-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,206 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.