1638 W 41st St · Erie, PA 16509

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,210 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1957 6,970 sqft lot Est $234k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Do some updating and make this cute one story house your home. Full basement has waterproof system installed and 2nd full bath with shower. Roomy 2 car garage and storage shed will take care of cars and storage needs. Updated metal roof on the house and garage.

Key facts

• Tile floor
• Corian counters
• Updated ranch

Tags

• UPDATED RANCH
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• CORIAN COUNTERS
• TILE FLOOR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: R-1 zoning
• HOA & community: Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Paved, oversized driveway with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Window coverings and drapes; Finished full basement with storage
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-312 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (25.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $220k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,337 (25.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,530
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1546 W 43rd St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,184 (-2%)	0mo	$228,500	$193	80
1517 W 44th St	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,211 (+0%)	1mo	$256,000	$211	78
4903 Perkins St	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,248 (+3%)	1mo	$270,000	$216	67
1425 Nicholson St	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-1%)	4mo	$171,000	$143	66
4004 Washington Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,078 (-11%)	3mo	$249,900	$232	65
1331 W 37th St	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-3%)	1mo	$195,000	$166	63
1377 W 32 St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,094 (-10%)	2mo	$227,000	$207	50
125 Clayton Ave	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-7%)	2mo	$216,000	$193	49
1445 W 34th St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,364 (+13%)	0mo	$192,000	$141	48
2114 Canton Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,104 (-9%)	1mo	$153,000	$139	48
1361 W 35th St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,112 (-8%)	3mo	$185,000	$166	48
3516 Elmwood Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	0mo	$187,000	$177	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-55,423
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-73,520
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16509

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$365 /mo · $4,385/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,038

Max offer price $164,788

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1540 W 54th St Unit 156104 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	952	$1,425	$1.50	43d	1	0.97mi
1022 W 30th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	43d	1	1.06mi
811 W 30th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	43d	1	1.24mi
3603 Maple St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	43d	1	1.31mi
2619 Liberty St Apt 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	44d	1	1.40mi
4500 Hammocks Dr Erie, PA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1312	$3,270	$2.49	43d	7	1.48mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536204 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,275	$1.61	43d	1	1.48mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 542401 Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1327	$2,160	$1.63	43d	1	1.48mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536404 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,290	$1.62	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $219,900 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $219,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $219,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $219,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-27
   status Active
6. 2026-05-27
   status Pending
7. 2026-05-23
   listed $219,900 Active
8. 2023-02-15
   soldstatus $129,900 Closed 261-char remark

   Show marketing remark (261 chars)

   Do some updating and make this cute one story house your home. Full basement has waterproof system installed and 2nd full bath with shower. Roomy 2 car garage and storage shed will take care of cars and storage needs. Updated metal roof on the house and garage.

9. 2023-02-15
   soldstatus $129,900

   Show marketing remark (261 chars)

   Do some updating and make this cute one story house your home. Full basement has waterproof system installed and 2nd full bath with shower. Roomy 2 car garage and storage shed will take care of cars and storage needs. Updated metal roof on the house and garage.

10. 2023-01-15
    status Pending 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Do some updating and make this cute one story house your home. Full basement has waterproof system installed and 2nd full bath with shower. Roomy 2 car garage and storage shed will take care of cars and storage needs. Updated metal roof on the house and garage.

11. 2023-01-11
    listed $124,900 Active 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Do some updating and make this cute one story house your home. Full basement has waterproof system installed and 2nd full bath with shower. Roomy 2 car garage and storage shed will take care of cars and storage needs. Updated metal roof on the house and garage.

12. 1993-11-09
    soldstatus $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,385 · $365/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,385 · $365/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$4,385
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$7,634
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,832
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,595
• Household income: $68,846
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 870.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Slovak 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.54%
• Current HPI: 240.361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+267.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-05-27 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-05-23 Listed $219,900 GEBOR
• 2023-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $129,900 Public Records
• 2023-02-15 Sold (MLS) $129,900 GEBOR
• 2023-01-15 Pending — GEBOR
• 2023-01-11 Listed $124,900 GEBOR
• 1993-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,385 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.