634 W Newbury St · Citrus Springs, FL 34434

$289,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,902 sqft · Land · 43 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW CONSTRUCTION | MOVE-IN READY| | 4 BEDROOM + 3 FULL BATH Offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and 1,902 sq ft, this home features a layout that truly flows. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout, complemented by a tray ceiling in the living room and recessed lighting for a clean, modern feel. The kitchen features an oversized island, white shaker cabinetry with soft-close drawers, sleek quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a seamless connection to the living and dining areas, great for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with a walk-in closet and a well-appointed en-suite bath featuring dual vanities and a wal

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces (attached); Driveway; Concrete parking surfaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-level / single story; New construction; Residential property; PDR zoning
• Construction: Stucco construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Outdoor pool; No pool / None listed; County road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Pantry; Tile counters; Walk-in closets

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-404 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Ridge Elementary School (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 723 students, 64% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $290k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,562 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.97%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-72,680
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-96,281
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,537

Max offer price $231,557

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
788 W Glenhaven Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1621	$1,800	$1.11	21d	1	0.23mi
669 W Homeway Loop Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,895	$1.20	21d	1	0.80mi
1301 N Galgano St Dunnellon, FL	4.0	3.0	2381	$2,800	$1.18	21d	1	0.82mi
7708 N Paris Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,800	$1.27	21d	1	1.00mi
7908 N Galena Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.5	1551	$1,850	$1.19	21d	1	1.04mi
8180 N Wakefield Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,695	$1.13	21d	1	1.10mi
8190 N Wakefield Dr Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1772	$1,750	$0.99	21d	1	1.11mi
8030 N Galena Ave Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	21d	1	1.13mi
6251 W Whispering Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,815	$1.12	21d	1	1.13mi
1482 W Manchester Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,695	$1.10	21d	1	1.17mi
8398 N Jay Dr Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,700	$1.10	21d	1	1.31mi
696 W Hallam Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,900	$1.06	21d	1	1.32mi
7175 N Varsity Ave Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,795	$1.26	21d	1	1.34mi
8450 N Travis Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,900	$1.06	21d	1	1.36mi
1912 W Quaker Ln Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1636	$1,895	$1.16	21d	1	1.38mi
8267 N Santos Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,800	$1.24	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $289,990 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,990 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,990 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $289,990 Active
17. 2008-12-01
    soldstatus $180,000
18. 2004-09-20
    soldstatus $5,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$4,350
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$10,062
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,415
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,431/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Springs, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,730
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 171.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5371.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $289,990 RACC
• 2008-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $5,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $197 · +39.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.