4218 Brown St · Bacliff, TX 77518

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 804 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1966 6,751 sqft lot $106/sqft · 31% below area Est $123k · 31% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a fantastic opportunity for investors, builders, or anyone looking to start fresh and build new. Utilities are already in place with electric and gas run to the property, saving you time and upfront costs. Close to the water, no restrictions and no HOA — giving you flexibility for new construction, rental potential, or other income-producing possibilities. Whether you’re looking to build your next project or add to your investment portfolio, this property offers endless potential. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to create value from the ground up!

Key facts

• Rental potential
• No restrictions
• Close to the water

Tags

• CLOSE TO THE WATER
• NO RESTRICTIONS
• NO HOA
• RENTAL POTENTIAL
• INCOME PRODUCING POSSIBILITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $715 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 5.0% in Bacliff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,252 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, schools F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.38%
• DSCR: 2.75
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,791
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -30.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4111 Brown St	0.10mi	2/1.0	850 (+6%)	10mo	$134,900	$159	77
303 Texas Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0	832 (+4%)	6mo	$132,900	$160	77
4102 Houx St	0.16mi	2/1.0	840 (+4%)	24mo	$159,900	$190	65
4222 Sevan St	0.29mi	2/1.0	704 (-12%)	15mo	$139,900	$199	53
4705 8th St	0.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	880 (+10%)	22mo	$385,000	$438	43
4311 14th St	0.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	714 (-11%)	21mo	$82,500	$116	41
4730 Oleander St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	915 (+14%)	0mo	$135,000	$148	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $31,811
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $86,606
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77518

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,749 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,430/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $715

Break-even live

Break-even rent $844

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $763	-5% $739	+0% $715	+5% $690	+10% $666
Rent	-10% $576	-5% $645	+0% $715	+5% $784	+10% $853
Rate	-1.0pp $757	-0.5pp $736	base $715	+0.5pp $693	+1.0pp $670

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
320 Louisiana Ave Bacliff, TX	2.0	1.0	786	$2,150	$2.74	1d	1	0.32mi
804 E AVE Unit 2 Bacliff, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	44d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    price $85,000 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    This is a fantastic opportunity for investors, builders, or anyone looking to start fresh and build new. Utilities are already in place with electric and gas run to the property, saving you time and upfront costs. Close to the water, no restrictions and no HOA — giving you flexibility for new construction, rental potential, or other income-producing possibilities. Whether you’re looking to build your next project or add to your investment portfolio, this property offers endless potential. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to create value from the ground up!

15. 2026-03-04
    listed $120,000 Active 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    This is a fantastic opportunity for investors, builders, or anyone looking to start fresh and build new. Utilities are already in place with electric and gas run to the property, saving you time and upfront costs. Close to the water, no restrictions and no HOA — giving you flexibility for new construction, rental potential, or other income-producing possibilities. Whether you’re looking to build your next project or add to your investment portfolio, this property offers endless potential. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to create value from the ground up!

16. 2006-02-24
    soldstatus
17. 1992-09-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,430 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$125/yr (+$10/mo · 8.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,983
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,430
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,679
• − Management: −$1,679
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $7,739
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,857
• After-tax cash flow: $6,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bacliff

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1252
• US rank: #21864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bacliff, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 9,541
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,541
• Household income: $51,458
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 43% Two or more races 21% Black 7% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.15%
• Current HPI: 293.2677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2006-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-09-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,430 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.