1712 Sylvia Cir · San Juan, TX 78589

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 162 Days on market

Built 1979 6,909 sqft lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

"AS IS" INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY for a flip!! GREAT LOCATION, Only a mile away from Expressway, Close to the Basilica. Large lot with plenty of space to add an additional restroom. Home does not qualify for FHA or Conventional. Don't miss this opportunity.

Key facts

• 6,909 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $458 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John Doedyns El (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 442 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 72% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.68%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $191,912
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 W Garfield Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,221 (-5%)	10mo	$179,000	$147	68
132 E Ciro Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+1%)	7mo	$193,500	$149	66
2211 Cedro Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,234 (-4%)	14mo	$175,000	$142	62
203 Encino Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,169 (-9%)	2mo	$174,500	$149	58
2003 Loma Alta Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,402 (+9%)	8mo	$185,000	$132	57
2023 Loma Azul St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+8%)	13mo	$234,900	$169	56
2004 Loma Bonita St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,146 (-11%)	5mo	$95,000	$83	56
119 Encino Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+8%)	7mo	$200,000	$143	56
210 Lilly Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,338 (+4%)	6mo	$258,000	$193	55
2404 Monte Grande Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+7%)	8mo	$218,000	$158	51
2000 Loma Bonita St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,481 (+15%)	14mo	$190,000	$128	39
1612 Douglas St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+14%)	15mo	$218,000	$149	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $13,857
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $49,886
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,479 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,071/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $899

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1709 Calle Tulipan San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,750	$0.95	43d	1	0.25mi
207 E Garfield St San Juan, TX	4.0	3.0	1818	$1,900	$1.05	14d	1	0.27mi
418 Chula Vista Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,600	$1.16	43d	1	0.33mi
234 W Jaime St San Juan, TX	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,150	$1.14	23d	1	0.36mi
203 Encino Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	969	$1,500	$1.55	23d	1	0.54mi
204 E Gomez Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	1.5	1464	$1,650	$1.13	14d	1	0.64mi
300 W Amy Dr Unit C San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	958	$995	$1.04	43d	1	0.65mi
1109 Del Monte Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	989	$1,300	$1.31	43d	1	0.71mi
103 E Segment Leonel Trevino Rd Unit C San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	962	$1,075	$1.12	43d	1	0.73mi
105 Lauryn Dr Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	948	$1,150	$1.21	23d	1	1.16mi
1809 N Mangrove St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,950	$1.40	19d	1	1.16mi
304 S Ridge Ln Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1120	$975	$0.87	43d	1	1.17mi
200 Lauryn Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,275	$1.34	14d	1	1.21mi
304 Lauryn Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	948	$1,195	$1.26	23d	1	1.23mi
3504 N Champagne Dr Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1237	$1,850	$1.50	21d	1	1.30mi
3814 N Mezcal Dr Unit Downstairs Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	43d	1	1.34mi
3841 N Mezcal Dr Unit Upstairs Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,150	$1.10	14d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2024-01-18
   soldstatus
2. 2024-01-16
   status Pending
3. 2023-11-29
   price $95,000
4. 2023-09-04
   status Active
5. 2023-08-03
   listed $120,000 Active
6. 2023-07-22
   listed $120,000 Active
7. 1987-05-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,071 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,071 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$2,071
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,420
• − Management: −$1,420
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $4,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,028
• After-tax cash flow: $4,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2024-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-01-16 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-11-29 Price Changed $95,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-09-04 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2023-08-03 Listed $120,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-07-22 Listed $120,000 MCALLENMLS
• 1987-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,071 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.