8156 D St · Windsor, CA 95492

$258,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · Manufactured · 631 Days on market

Built 2004 $205/sqft · 30% above area Est $199k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Best deal for a home at WMCC. Beautifully remodeled home with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, as well as a den office. Remodel includes kitchen, bathrooms, new carpet and flooring, new gas range/oven, hood, dishwasher, and stainless steel sink. Purchaser must apply for tenancy at park office and be approved before close of escrow.

Key facts

• Stainless steel sink
• Remodeled kitchen
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW CARPET AND FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $829 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $258k).
• Recommended offer: $227k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.0% in Windsor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#210 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Windsor Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #362 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $72k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 631 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 631 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.76%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,000
• List price: $258,000
• Delta: 29.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 Aspen Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+3%)	6mo	$179,900	$139	87
703 Sequoia	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-1%)	18mo	$172,000	$138	82
8107 B St	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+3%)	10mo	$270,000	$208	81
8109 B St	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	3mo	$199,000	$173	78
612 Aspen Way	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (+4%)	11mo	$215,000	$164	78
610 Aspen Way	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,345 (+7%)	12mo	$169,000	$126	77
8155 Willow St	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-11%)	5mo	$145,000	$129	73
708 Sequoia Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	20mo	$155,000	$135	68
8323 Blue Spruce Way	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+7%)	20mo	$145,000	$108	64
8317 Blue Spruce Way	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+14%)	7mo	$135,000	$94	64
1133 Chinaberry Way	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+14%)	12mo	$279,000	$194	61
8167 Willow St	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-13%)	13mo	$155,000	$141	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $10,873
• Equity at exit: $38,469

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $77,036
• Equity at exit: $22,307

Cash invested: $72,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95492

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,353
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,104/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $829

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,965

Max offer price $258,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,500
• Closing costs: $7,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
208 Courtyards E Windsor, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,300	$2.35	14d	1	0.26mi
172 Courtyards E Windsor, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,650	$2.70	14d	1	0.32mi
10 3rd St Unit 10 Windsor, CA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,395	$2.40	44d	1	0.48mi
7924 Ferrari Way Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1476	$3,400	$2.30	44d	1	0.54mi
185 Johnson St Windsor, CA	3.0	2.5	1796	$3,300	$1.84	44d	1	0.65mi
776 McClelland Dr Windsor, CA	2.0	2.5	1344	$2,900	$2.16	44d	1	0.77mi
1145 Shiloh Rd Windsor, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$3,828	$4.93	8d	14	0.94mi
904 Bond Pl Windsor, CA	3.0	3.0	1587	$1,275	$0.80	44d	1	1.01mi
9631 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 9631 Windsor, CA	2.0	1.0	1047	$2,375	$2.27	21d	1	1.22mi
1011 Ventana Dr Windsor, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,400	$3.09	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $258,000 Active 631 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $258,000 Active 630 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $258,000 Active 629 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $258,000 Active 628 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $258,000 Active 626 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $258,000 Active 625 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $258,000 Active 623 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $258,000 Active 622 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $258,000 Active 621 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $258,000 Active 620 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $258,000 Active 617 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $258,000 Active 616 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $258,000 Active 615 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $258,000 Active 614 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $258,000 Active 613 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $258,000 Active 612 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,104 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,961 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$857/yr (+$71/mo · 77.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,452
• − Property taxes: −$1,104
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,893
• − Management: −$2,893
• − Depreciation: −$7,505
• Taxable income: $6,030
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,447
• After-tax cash flow: $8,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Windsor Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600034
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $81,297
• Composite: 25.06/100
• National rank: #7541
• State rank: #362 of 517 in CA

Livability — Windsor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #6671

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Windsor, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 27,429
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 27,429
• Household income: $134,211
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 628.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 13% Native American 4% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 25% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.03%
• Current HPI: 249.6052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,104 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.