11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #195 · Surprise, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (shaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 114°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +25.0/30.0
- DSCR +8.2/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- 1% rule +6.5/10.0
- Appreciation +5.1/10.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Schools +3.3/10.0
- Condition / age +2.2/5.0
- Rent growth +1.1/5.0
$174,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
This BEAUTIFUL GREAT OPEN Floor plan! Has a spacious inviting feel as soon as you step In! with lots of updated features! This 3 bedroom 2bath home with split floor plan has plenty of room to entertain family and friends! with vaulted ceilings, beautiful cabinetry, wood look flooring, and Owned Solar! It Is a MUST SEE!!! located In the 55+Community of Rose Garden.Sellers hold an active real estate license in the state of Arizona
Key facts
- Wood look flooring
- Open floor plan
- Updated features
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated fair.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
- Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
- Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $309 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
- Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.15% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.92%
- Cash-on-cash
- 9.39%
- DSCR
- 1.42
- GRM
- 7.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $89,609
- List price
- $174,900
- Delta
- 95.18%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 19 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #17 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,904 (0%) | 17mo | $120,000 | $63 | 86 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #325 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,904 (0%) | 17mo | $125,000 | $66 | 86 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #15 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,904 (0%) | 19mo | $135,000 | $71 | 84 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #193 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,904 (0%) | 23mo | $180,000 | $95 | 81 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #131 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,680 (-12%) | 5mo | $122,000 | $73 | 71 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #20 | 0.19mi | 3/2.0 | 1,716 (-10%) | 6mo | $50,000 | $29 | 70 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #339 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,680 (-12%) | 16mo | $99,000 | $59 | 67 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #261 | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,624 (-15%) | 12mo | $149,900 | $92 | 66 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #144 | 0.00mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,680 (-12%) | 19mo | $115,000 | $68 | 59 |
| 11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #36 | 0.47mi | 3/2.0 | 1,708 (-10%) | 12mo | $135,000 | $79 | 51 |
| 16101 N El Mirage Rd #361 | 0.74mi | 3/2.0 | 1,792 (-6%) | 12mo | $164,000 | $92 | 46 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 6.5%
- Equity multiple
- 1.30×
- Total profit
- $14,874
- Equity at exit
- $52,338
- IRR
- 9.3%
- Equity multiple
- 1.95×
- Total profit
- $46,286
- Equity at exit
- $64,165
Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 85378
- Home prices YoY
- 0.1%
- Rents YoY
- -5.5%
- Active inventory
- 80
- Price-to-rent
- 7.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,015 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$917
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
- Insurance
- −$73
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$423
- Net cashflow
- $383
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $504 | -5% $444 | +0% $383 | +5% $323 | +10% $262 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $224 | -5% $304 | +0% $383 | +5% $463 | +10% $542 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $471 | -0.5pp $428 | base $383 | +0.5pp $338 | +1.0pp $292 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $43,725
- Closing costs
- $5,247
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 29 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11402 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1600 | $1,800 | $1.12 | 25d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1368 | $1,930 | $1.41 | 44d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 16608 N 113th Dr Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1571 | $1,900 | $1.21 | 44d | 1 | 0.32mi |
| 11554 W Mule Deer Ct Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1963 | $1,816 | $0.93 | 44d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1737 | $1,695 | $0.98 | 6d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1737 | $1,695 | $0.98 | 25d | 1 | 0.80mi |
| 12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1680 | $1,999 | $1.19 | 25d | 1 | 0.82mi |
| 15204 N El Frio Ct El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1978 | $2,019 | $1.02 | 3d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1680 | $1,950 | $1.16 | 25d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2117 | $2,145 | $1.01 | 19d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2117 | $2,145 | $1.01 | 2d | 1 | 0.85mi |
| 12204 W Ocotillo Ln El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2117 | $1,949 | $0.92 | 24d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 14815 N Tonya Cir El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1642 | $2,040 | $1.24 | 44d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1642 | $1,869 | $1.14 | 44d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1700 | $2,300 | $1.35 | 25d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1459 | $2,199 | $1.51 | 22d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1495 | $2,000 | $1.34 | 44d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1310 | $1,599 | $1.22 | 25d | 2 | 1.05mi |
| 11439 W Ashley Chantil Dr Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1949 | $1,995 | $1.02 | 44d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 11429 W Austin Thomas Dr Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1536 | $1,875 | $1.22 | 44d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 11175 W Ashley Chantil Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2455 | $2,795 | $1.14 | 25d | 1 | 1.15mi |
| 16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.5 | 1267 | $1,850 | $1.46 | 2d | 17 | 1.22mi |
| 11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1301 | $2,070 | $1.59 | 44d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 11319 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1949 | $2,500 | $1.28 | 25d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 11319 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1949 | $2,500 | $1.28 | 44d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 936 | $2,771 | $2.96 | 2d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 14715 N 124th Ave El Mirage, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1534 | $2,010 | $1.31 | 44d | 1 | 1.47mi |
| 12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1534 | $1,875 | $1.22 | 17d | 1 | 1.49mi |
| 12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1308 | $1,595 | $1.22 | 24d | 1 | 1.49mi |
Listing history 23 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $174,900 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $174,900 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $174,900 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $174,900 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $174,900 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $174,900 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $174,900 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $174,900 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $174,900 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $174,900 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $174,900 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $174,900 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $174,900 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $174,900 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-03-13price $174,900 432-char remark
Show marketing remark (432 chars)
This BEAUTIFUL GREAT OPEN Floor plan! Has a spacious inviting feel as soon as you step In! with lots of updated features! This 3 bedroom 2bath home with split floor plan has plenty of room to entertain family and friends! with vaulted ceilings, beautiful cabinetry, wood look flooring, and Owned Solar! It Is a MUST SEE!!! located In the 55+Community of Rose Garden.Sellers hold an active real estate license in the state of Arizona
-
2026-02-05$179,000 Active 432-char remark
Show marketing remark (432 chars)
This BEAUTIFUL GREAT OPEN Floor plan! Has a spacious inviting feel as soon as you step In! with lots of updated features! This 3 bedroom 2bath home with split floor plan has plenty of room to entertain family and friends! with vaulted ceilings, beautiful cabinetry, wood look flooring, and Owned Solar! It Is a MUST SEE!!! located In the 55+Community of Rose Garden.Sellers hold an active real estate license in the state of Arizona
-
2023-09-08soldstatus $170,000 Closed 670-char remark
Show marketing remark (670 chars)
This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home has it all. Neat and clean with formal living room and family room with fireplace. NO CARPET. open and bright. Owned Solar, over the last 43 months average electric was only $50. Some of the upgrades are triple pane windows, blinds thru out, 2 walk in showers, plumbing has been updated, driveway has cool coat and room for 3 suv's Shows like a model with updated kitchen cabinets, with corrian counter tops, roll out shelves and much more. HVAC updated 2017, Roof 2019, Solar water heater 2012 . Located in a gated 55+ community on leased land. Monthly lot fee with unlimited water, sewer, trash, city taxes is only 830.16
-
2023-09-01status Pending 670-char remark
Show marketing remark (670 chars)
This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home has it all. Neat and clean with formal living room and family room with fireplace. NO CARPET. open and bright. Owned Solar, over the last 43 months average electric was only $50. Some of the upgrades are triple pane windows, blinds thru out, 2 walk in showers, plumbing has been updated, driveway has cool coat and room for 3 suv's Shows like a model with updated kitchen cabinets, with corrian counter tops, roll out shelves and much more. HVAC updated 2017, Roof 2019, Solar water heater 2012 . Located in a gated 55+ community on leased land. Monthly lot fee with unlimited water, sewer, trash, city taxes is only 830.16
-
2023-09-01$175,000 Active 670-char remark
Show marketing remark (670 chars)
This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home has it all. Neat and clean with formal living room and family room with fireplace. NO CARPET. open and bright. Owned Solar, over the last 43 months average electric was only $50. Some of the upgrades are triple pane windows, blinds thru out, 2 walk in showers, plumbing has been updated, driveway has cool coat and room for 3 suv's Shows like a model with updated kitchen cabinets, with corrian counter tops, roll out shelves and much more. HVAC updated 2017, Roof 2019, Solar water heater 2012 . Located in a gated 55+ community on leased land. Monthly lot fee with unlimited water, sewer, trash, city taxes is only 830.16
-
2023-08-31soldstatus $170,000 Closed 670-char remark
Show marketing remark (670 chars)
This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home has it all. Neat and clean with formal living room and family room with fireplace. NO CARPET. open and bright. Owned Solar, over the last 43 months average electric was only $50. Some of the upgrades are triple pane windows, blinds thru out, 2 walk in showers, plumbing has been updated, driveway has cool coat and room for 3 suv's Shows like a model with updated kitchen cabinets, with corrian counter tops, roll out shelves and much more. HVAC updated 2017, Roof 2019, Solar water heater 2012 . Located in a gated 55+ community on leased land. Monthly lot fee with unlimited water, sewer, trash, city taxes is only 830.16
-
2023-08-24status Pending 670-char remark
Show marketing remark (670 chars)
This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home has it all. Neat and clean with formal living room and family room with fireplace. NO CARPET. open and bright. Owned Solar, over the last 43 months average electric was only $50. Some of the upgrades are triple pane windows, blinds thru out, 2 walk in showers, plumbing has been updated, driveway has cool coat and room for 3 suv's Shows like a model with updated kitchen cabinets, with corrian counter tops, roll out shelves and much more. HVAC updated 2017, Roof 2019, Solar water heater 2012 . Located in a gated 55+ community on leased land. Monthly lot fee with unlimited water, sewer, trash, city taxes is only 830.16
-
2023-07-29historical Contract Contingent on Buyer Sale 670-char remark
Show marketing remark (670 chars)
This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home has it all. Neat and clean with formal living room and family room with fireplace. NO CARPET. open and bright. Owned Solar, over the last 43 months average electric was only $50. Some of the upgrades are triple pane windows, blinds thru out, 2 walk in showers, plumbing has been updated, driveway has cool coat and room for 3 suv's Shows like a model with updated kitchen cabinets, with corrian counter tops, roll out shelves and much more. HVAC updated 2017, Roof 2019, Solar water heater 2012 . Located in a gated 55+ community on leased land. Monthly lot fee with unlimited water, sewer, trash, city taxes is only 830.16
-
2023-06-21$175,000 Active 670-char remark
Show marketing remark (670 chars)
This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home has it all. Neat and clean with formal living room and family room with fireplace. NO CARPET. open and bright. Owned Solar, over the last 43 months average electric was only $50. Some of the upgrades are triple pane windows, blinds thru out, 2 walk in showers, plumbing has been updated, driveway has cool coat and room for 3 suv's Shows like a model with updated kitchen cabinets, with corrian counter tops, roll out shelves and much more. HVAC updated 2017, Roof 2019, Solar water heater 2012 . Located in a gated 55+ community on leased land. Monthly lot fee with unlimited water, sewer, trash, city taxes is only 830.16
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $24,181
- − Mortgage interest
- −$9,797
- − Property taxes
- −$2,624
- − Insurance
- −$874
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,934
- − Management
- −$1,934
- − Depreciation
- −$5,088
- Taxable income
- $1,929
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$463
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,135/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo
This home requires moderate repairs to its exterior and flooring, but has a good roof and HVAC system. Painting and replacing siding would significantly enhance its curb appeal and resale value.
Repairs flagged
- Major Exterior siding — Significant weathering and discoloration
- Major Exterior paint — Paint appears faded and uneven
Value-add opportunities
- Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value
- Resale Replace exterior siding — New siding improves home's appearance and value
- Rental Replace carpeting — Fresh flooring improves tenant satisfaction and rental value
Renovation cost estimate screening
| Repair item | Severity | Est. cost |
|---|---|---|
| Exterior siding · Significant weathering and discoloration | Major | $15,000–50,000 |
| Exterior paint · Paint appears faded and uneven | Major | $15,000–50,000 |
| Total estimated repair cost · 2 items | $30,000–100,000 |
Value-add ROI direction
- Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value ↑
- Resale Replace exterior siding — New siding improves home's appearance and value ↑
- Rental Replace carpeting — Fresh flooring improves tenant satisfaction and rental value ↑
ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Dysart Unified District (4243)
- NCES district ID
- 0402690
- Math proficiency
- 34% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 40% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $58,033
- Composite
- 32.76/100
- National rank
- #5634
- State rank
- #73 of 249 in AZ
Livability — Surprise
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #19
- US rank
- #4616
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Surprise, AZ
- County
- Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
- City population
- 160,031
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 9,765
- Household income
- $56,444
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 510.0
Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 4,979,203 people
- By 2030
- 5,378,229 · +8.0%
- By 2040
- 6,156,598 · +23.6%
- By 2050
- 6,872,376 · +38.0%
- By 2075
- 8,401,270 · +68.7%
- By 2100
- 9,247,439 · +85.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, Guatemala
- Languages at home
- 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 0.18%
- Current HPI
- 287.1228
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -5.53%
- Metro
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
||
Price history
-0.1% since first listed9 events — show timeline
- 2026-03-13 Price Changed $174,900 ARMLS
- 2026-02-05 Listed $179,000 ARMLS
- 2023-09-08 Sold (MLS) $170,000 ARMLS
- 2023-09-01 Pending — ARMLS
- 2023-09-01 Listed $175,000 ARMLS
- 2023-08-31 Sold (MLS) $170,000 ARMLS
- 2023-08-24 Pending — ARMLS
- 2023-07-29 Contingent — ARMLS
- 2023-06-21 Listed $175,000 ARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
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