1913 Kirby Landing Dr · Houston, TX 77051

$345,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,167 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2022 2,435 sqft lot $159/sqft · 12% below area Est $391k · 12% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Cash flow +2.7/30.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked inside a gated community in the heart of Houston, this practically new 3-Story, 2022 home offers the perfect balance of privacy and accessibility. Just minutes from NRG Arena, Texas Medical Center, Downtown, and the Galleria, enjoy city convenience with a suburban feel. Featuring a full third-floor bathroom and loft. High-end finishes throughout, and an easy-to-maintain yard, this home is designed for modern living. Spacious and thoughtfully laid out, it’s perfect for entertaining, relaxing, and everything in between. High end refrigerator, washer, dryer included. Don’t miss your opportunity to own this stunning beauty, just in time for the 2026 FIFA World Cup! Schedule y

Key facts

• Gated community
• Third floor bathroom
• 2,435 sq ft lot

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• THIRD FLOOR BATHROOM
• EASY TO MAINTAIN YARD
• HIGH END REFRIGERATOR
• WASHER DRYER INCLUDED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease considered
• HOA & community: Community managed by Inframark; Annual association fee of $1,200; Association fee covers common areas and grounds maintenance; Community amenities include gated access, controlled access, dog park, picnic area, trash service, and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Prewired for security; Leased security system; Controlled access; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2022; Slab foundation; Vinyl and wood siding; Composition roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built: 2022
• Exterior features: Private fenced yard; Fence (back yard); Subdivision setting; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Ice maker; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas); Attic fan; Programmable thermostat; HVAC noted for energy efficiency
• Interior features: Double vanities; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Quartz countertops; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Ceiling fans; Loft; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Washer and dryer listed among appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (37.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (34.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Reynolds El (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #4,301 of 4,322 statewide, top 100%, 334 students, 98% FRL); Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,328 (37.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.47%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $390,624
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -1.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2020 Windsor Meadow Trce	0.10mi	3/3.5	2,257 (+4%)	12mo	$411,636	$182	78
11929 Primrose Creek Trl	0.13mi	3/3.5	2,299 (+6%)	9mo	$389,990	$170	76
11921 Primrose Creek Trl	0.13mi	3/3.5	2,299 (+6%)	11mo	$394,990	$172	75
2033 Millbridge Spring Ln	0.10mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,299 (+6%)	7mo	$379,990	$165	74
1938 Acaciawood Way	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,197 (+1%)	8mo	$319,900	$146	73
2027 Millbridge Spring Ln	0.09mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,294 (+6%)	13mo	$395,000	$172	71
2020 Groveland Glen Dr	0.10mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,334 (+8%)	9mo	$405,990	$174	70
11923 Primrose Creek Trl	0.13mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,334 (+8%)	8mo	$380,000	$163	69
11916 Oakmont Valley Trce	0.05mi	3/3.0	2,400 (+11%)	13mo	$375,000	$156	67
11927 Primrose Creek Trl	0.13mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,334 (+8%)	12mo	$438,506	$188	66
2018 Windsor Meadow Trce	0.10mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,947 (-10%)	13mo	$400,000	$205	63
2006 Colehill Dr	0.24mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,353 (+9%)	12mo	$324,500	$138	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $118,182
• Equity at exit: $310,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $416,027
• Equity at exit: $670,259

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$893 /mo · $10,716/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-1,165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,729

Max offer price $214,328

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-969	-5% $-1,067	+0% $-1,165	+5% $-1,262	+10% $-1,360
Rent	-10% $-1,343	-5% $-1,254	+0% $-1,165	+5% $-1,076	+10% $-987
Rate	-1.0pp $-991	-0.5pp $-1,077	base $-1,165	+0.5pp $-1,254	+1.0pp $-1,345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,525	$1.30	22d	1	0.87mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	20d	1	0.99mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	6d	1	1.07mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	24d	1	1.07mi
11826 Fortune Park Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,100	$1.10	45d	1	1.17mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,961	$1.38	5d	1	1.33mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,932	$1.36	20d	1	1.33mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	45d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $345,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $345,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $385,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $385,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $385,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-04-07
    listed $385,000 Active 717-char remark
14. 2026-04-07
    historical
15. 2026-01-24
    price $399,000
16. 2025-10-21
    price $405,000
17. 2025-10-10
    listed $436,228 Active
18. 2022-09-15
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2022-09-07
    status Pending
20. 2022-07-20
    price $444,332
21. 2022-07-20
    historical
22. 2022-07-12
    listed $444,059 Active
23. 2022-07-12
    historical
24. 2022-06-07
    price $444,059
25. 2022-05-13
    listed $438,746 Active
26. 2022-04-26
    price $443,949
27. 2022-04-15
    price $444,589
28. 2022-04-05
    price $438,746
29. 2022-02-17
    price $431,746
30. 2022-02-02
    listed $417,951 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,716 · $893/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,716 · $893/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$10,716
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,165
• − Management: −$2,165
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$20,274
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,866
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $385,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $405,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $436,228 HARMLS
• 2022-09-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-09-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-20 Price Changed $444,332 HARMLS
• 2022-07-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-12 Listed $444,059 HARMLS
• 2022-06-07 Price Changed $444,059 HARMLS
• 2022-05-13 Listed $438,746 HARMLS
• 2022-04-26 Price Changed $443,949 HARMLS
• 2022-04-15 Price Changed $444,589 HARMLS
• 2022-04-05 Price Changed $438,746 HARMLS
• 2022-02-17 Price Changed $431,746 HARMLS
• 2022-02-02 Listed $417,951 HARMLS

Property tax history

+94.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,716 · -8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.