9681 Macks Ln · St. Michaels, MD 21647

$92,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 377 Days on market

Built 1963 0.46 ac lot $100/sqft · 47% below area Est $173k · 47% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Improvement!!! Please don’t enter the home. The value is in the land.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 377 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 0.7% in St. Michaels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Talbot County Public Schools (town): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #12 of 24 in MD (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 158 units permitted in Talbot County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $576 of equity ($636 loan paydown + $-60 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Talbot County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 377 days — a 12% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 377 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.08%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,492
• List price: $92,000
• Delta: -46.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $12,175
• Equity at exit: $26,414

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $41,840
• Equity at exit: $31,513

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21647

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,059 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $757

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $290	-5% $264	+0% $238	+5% $212	+10% $186
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $196	+0% $238	+5% $280	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $261	base $238	+0.5pp $214	+1.0pp $190

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $92,000 Active 377 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $92,000 Active 376 DOM
3. 2025-10-15
   price $92,000 81-char remark

   Show marketing remark (81 chars)

   Price Improvement!!! Please don’t enter the home. The value is in the land.

4. 2025-05-19
   listed $102,000 Active 81-char remark

   Show marketing remark (81 chars)

   Price Improvement!!! Please don’t enter the home. The value is in the land.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $930 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $966 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$36/yr (+$3/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,016
• − Management: −$1,016
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $1,450
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$348
• After-tax cash flow: $2,507/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Talbot County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400630
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,786
• Composite: 23.11/100
• National rank: #7961
• State rank: #12 of 24 in MD

Livability — St. Michaels

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,745
• Population (ZIP): 412

Population outlook (Talbot County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,811 people
• By 2030: 36,305 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 34,818 · -5.4%
• By 2050: 32,982 · -10.4%
• By 2075: 29,631 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 25,767 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Talbot

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 49.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -9.6pp · 2024: -0.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.0 2020: D+0.5 2016: R+11.9 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Current HPI: 141.3984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $92,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $102,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $930 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.