7125 N Lagoon Dr Unit J · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1 sqft · Condo public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1985 $189000/sqft · 98832% above area Est $229k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This condo is ideally located on the east end of PCB, conveniently close to the beach and St. Andrews Park. Enjoy easy access to nearby outdoor activities, restaurants, and shopping. This small, cozy complex offers a quiet setting with a community pool and a relaxed coastal atmosphere. The unit is ideally situated on the first floor and features a desirable split-bedroom plan. Both bedrooms include walk in closets, with the primary bedroom offering a private en-suite bath. The secondary bath is accessible from both the guest bedroom and the open living area, providing added convenience. Sliding glass doors offer peaceful views of the surrounding green space, enhancing the bright and open feel of the living area and guest room. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and pantry with an open view of the living area, creating a welcoming and functional space. A dedicated laundry area with washer and dryer adds to the convenience. It is only a few steps from the pool for a day of relaxation. With endless potential, this unit is perfect for effortless living, or short-term and long-term investment. This unit presents an excellent opportunity for someone looking for a renovation project. With some updates the space could be transformed into a comfortable and attractive coastal retreat. Motivated sellers have priced this unit for a quick sale. Don't miss out on this opportunity Pet friendly community. New hot water heater with expansion tank and garbage disposal. Seller will replaced dishwasher prior to closing. All measurements are approximate. If important, please self-measure. Roof and gutters were replaced approximately 5 years ago.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1985
• Listed 154 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1022 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.24%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,254
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -17.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,983
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,813
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1022
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,486/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,511

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7125 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1250	$2,000	$1.60	21d	1	0.02mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	21d	1	0.23mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	21d	1	0.28mi
6427 Sunset Ave Unit 2 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	21d	1	0.51mi
2103 Bent Oak Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	21d	1	0.54mi
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	13d	1	0.55mi
7205 Thomas Dr Unit 1354970P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,227	$3.09	21d	1	0.56mi
7405A Beach Dr Unit 1355031P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,124	$1.65	21d	1	0.59mi
6320 Beach Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$2,800	$1.72	21d	1	0.61mi
2617 Cypress St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	21d	1	0.73mi
2519 Beech St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,595	$1.33	21d	1	0.76mi
5931 Pinetree Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	21d	1	0.84mi
6219 Poinciana Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,350	$1.94	21d	1	0.88mi
8623 N Lagoon Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1600	$2,350	$1.47	21d	1	0.89mi
5710 Sunset Ave Unit 1523314P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1087	$8,246	$7.59	21d	1	1.06mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	1.17mi
5409 Hilltop Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	21d	1	1.29mi
5402 Pinetree Ave Unit 1447170P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1625	$6,216	$3.83	21d	1	1.31mi
2917 Allison Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	21d	1	1.36mi
8730 Thomas Dr Unit 1355041P Panama City Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	839	$1,373	$1.64	21d	1	1.42mi
5230 Beach Dr Unit D Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	21d	1	1.43mi
5230 Beach Dr Unit A Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	21d	1	1.43mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	13d	1	1.47mi
4014 Irwin St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	697	$1,250	$1.79	21d	1	1.47mi
8715 Surf Dr Unit 1523323P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,377	$4.50	13d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,000 Active 134 DOM
18. 2026-01-16
    listed $189,000 Active 1654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1654 chars)

    This condo is ideally located on the east end of PCB, conveniently close to the beach and St. Andrews Park. Enjoy easy access to nearby outdoor activities, restaurants, and shopping. This small, cozy complex offers a quiet setting with a community pool and a relaxed coastal atmosphere. The unit is ideally situated on the first floor and features a desirable split-bedroom plan. Both bedrooms include walk in closets, with the primary bedroom offering a private en-suite bath. The secondary bath is accessible from both the guest bedroom and the open living area, providing added convenience. Sliding glass doors offer peaceful views of the surrounding green space, enhancing the bright and open feel of the living area and guest room. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and pantry with an open view of the living area, creating a welcoming and functional space. A dedicated laundry area with washer and dryer adds to the convenience. It is only a few steps from the pool for a day of relaxation. With endless potential, this unit is perfect for effortless living, or short-term and long-term investment. This unit presents an excellent opportunity for someone looking for a renovation project. With some updates the space could be transformed into a comfortable and attractive coastal retreat. Motivated sellers have priced this unit for a quick sale. Don't miss out on this opportunity Pet friendly community. New hot water heater with expansion tank and garbage disposal. Seller will replaced dishwasher prior to closing. All measurements are approximate. If important, please self-measure. Roof and gutters were replaced approximately 5 years ago.

19. 2023-08-19
    historical
20. 2023-08-05
    price $199,999
21. 2023-06-27
    price $210,000
22. 2023-05-06
    price $220,000
23. 2023-04-05
    listed $233,000 Active
24. 2021-12-09
    historical
25. 2009-08-21
    listed $114,900
26. 2007-12-20
    soldstatus $128,000
27. 2007-12-19
    soldstatus $128,000
28. 2007-09-24
    listed $133,500
29. 2006-06-13
    soldstatus $125,000
30. 2004-05-13
    soldstatus $109,900
31. 2004-05-12
    soldstatus $109,900
32. 2004-04-29
    listed $109,900
33. 1986-12-01
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,569 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,486
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $226
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$54
• After-tax cash flow: $3,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+310.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $189,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-08-19 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2023-08-05 Price Changed $199,999 CPARMLS
• 2023-06-27 Price Changed $210,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-05-06 Price Changed $220,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-04-05 Listed $233,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2009-08-21 Listed $114,900 CPARMLS
• 2007-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2007-12-19 Sold (MLS) $128,000 CPARMLS
• 2007-09-24 Listed $133,500 CPARMLS
• 2006-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $109,900 Public Records
• 2004-05-12 Sold (MLS) $109,900 CPARMLS
• 2004-04-29 Listed $109,900 CPARMLS
• 1986-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,486 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.