2928 Tantara Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 179 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 6,351 sqft lot $158/sqft · 17% below area Est $354k · 17% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 2928 Tantara Dr, a beautiful single-story home in the highly sought-after Sunterra community of Katy, TX. This well-designed floor plan offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,868 sq ft of open-concept living. Features include an automatic sprinkler system, extended covered back porch, and full gutters. A flexible front room is ideal for a home office. The spacious kitchen features a large island, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and overlooks the dining and living areas. The private primary suite is tucked away at the rear of the home and includes an en-suite bath and walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom. Sunterra offers exceptional amenities including a crystal-clear lagoon, resort-style pool and clubhouse, scenic walking trails, and multiple parks.

Key facts

• Flexible front room
• Quartz countertops
• Large island

Tags

• AUTOMATIC SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• EXTENDED COVERED BACK PORCH
• FULL GUTTERS
• FLEXIBLE FRONT ROOM
• LARGE ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-849 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Katy El (math 63% / reading 61%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 682 students, 26% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 3403 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.

Recommended offer $225,944 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.34%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,244
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: -15.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2947 Golden Dust Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,911 (+2%)	0mo	$275,000	$144	85
3053 Sorrento Hill Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,867 (-0%)	0mo	$367,900	$197	84
3036 Sorrento Hill Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,867 (-0%)	6mo	$347,900	$186	80
2813 Grand Anse Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,811 (-3%)	9mo	$289,995	$160	79
2491 Solaris Bend Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,850 (-1%)	3mo	$334,000	$181	78
2991 Tantara	0.13mi	3/2.0	2,031 (+9%)	3mo	$351,990	$173	77
3036 Myrtle Sunset Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,867 (-0%)	7mo	$347,900	$186	77
2476 Fairway Harbor Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,850 (-1%)	7mo	$358,885	$194	70
2836 Grand Anse Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,067 (+11%)	5mo	$309,995	$150	67
3056 Myrtle Sunset Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-13%)	8mo	$337,900	$207	58
2537 Allegretto Sea Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,991 (+7%)	0mo	$339,990	$171	58
2532 Allegretto Sea Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-12%)	7mo	$329,990	$202	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -44.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-108,361
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.29×
• Total profit: $-188,892
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 38 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $345,000 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 34 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 3403
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$941 /mo · $11,297/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-849

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,432

Max offer price $225,944

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-682	-5% $-766	+0% $-849	+5% $-933	+10% $-1,016
Rent	-10% $-1,036	-5% $-943	+0% $-849	+5% $-756	+10% $-663
Rate	-1.0pp $-701	-0.5pp $-774	base $-849	+0.5pp $-926	+1.0pp $-1,004

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2845 Shimmer Edge Dr Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	2362	$2,249	$0.95	43d	1	0.13mi
2654 Aruba Bend Dr Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1958	$2,438	$1.25	0d	79	0.31mi
28625 Clay Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,000	$1.07	93d	1	0.70mi
409 Aurora Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1964	$2,100	$1.07	21d	1	1.22mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	62d	1	1.40mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,170	$1.22	21d	1	1.42mi
1496 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2135	$2,500	$1.17	28d	1	1.43mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,035	$1.32	21d	1	1.43mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,170	$1.22	21d	1	1.44mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	93d	1	1.44mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,020	$1.31	21d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail $100/mo · $1,200/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $295,000 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $295,000 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $295,000 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $295,000 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $300,000 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $300,000 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $300,000 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $300,000 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $300,000 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $300,000 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $300,000 Active 162 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $300,000 Active 161 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $300,000 Active 160 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $300,000 Active 158 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $300,000 Active 157 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $300,000 Active 156 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $300,000 Active 155 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $300,000 Active 154 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $300,000 Active 153 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $300,000 Active 152 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $300,000 Active 151 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $300,000 Active 150 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $300,000 Active 149 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 147 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $300,000 Active 146 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $300,000 Active 145 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $300,000 Active 144 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 143 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 142 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 141 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $300,000 Active 140 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $300,000 Active 139 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $300,000 Active 138 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $300,000 Active 137 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $300,000 Active 136 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $300,000 Active 134 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $300,000 Active 132 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $300,000 Active 131 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $300,000 Active 128 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $300,000 Active 127 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $300,000 Active 126 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    pricedays on market $300,000 Active 125 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $310,000 Active 119 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $310,000 Active 118 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 117 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,000 Active 114 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 113 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 112 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,297 · $941/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,297 · $941/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$11,297
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,263
• − Management: −$2,263
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$15,321
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,677
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Sunterra, Katy, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a spacious kitchen, a private primary suite, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing and functional. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for both buyers and tenants. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Katy El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 60,772 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

---

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-11-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-11-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-10-30 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-24 Listed $320,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+167.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,297 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.