2928 Tantara Dr · Katy, TX 77493

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 6,351 sqft lot 2-car garage $153/sqft · 19% below area Est $354k · 19% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2928 Tantara Dr, a beautiful single-story home in the highly sought-after Sunterra community of Katy, TX. This well-designed floor plan offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,868 sq ft of open-concept living. Features include an automatic sprinkler system, extended covered back porch, and full gutters. A flexible front room is ideal for a home office. The spacious kitchen features a large island, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and overlooks the dining and living areas. The private primary suite is tucked away at the rear of the home and includes an en-suite bath and walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Sprinkler system
• No back neighbors

Tags

• PRIVATE HOME OFFICE
• EXTENDED COVERED PATIO
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• FULL GUTTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-637 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Katy El (math 63% / reading 61%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 682 students, 26% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 4013 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.

Recommended offer $225,944 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.58%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,017
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -19.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2947 Golden Dust Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,911 (+2%)	2mo	$275,000	$144	84
3053 Sorrento Hill Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,867 (-0%)	2mo	$367,900	$197	82
3036 Sorrento Hill Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,867 (-0%)	7mo	$347,900	$186	79
2491 Solaris Bend Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,850 (-1%)	5mo	$334,000	$181	76
2991 Tantara	0.13mi	3/2.0	2,031 (+9%)	4mo	$351,990	$173	76
3036 Myrtle Sunset Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,867 (-0%)	9mo	$347,900	$186	76
3032 Myrtle Sunset Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-13%)	1mo	$329,900	$202	67
2836 Grand Anse Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,067 (+11%)	7mo	$309,995	$150	66
1229 Woodflower Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,748 (-6%)	1mo	$299,500	$171	64
2537 Allegretto Sea Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,991 (+7%)	2mo	$339,990	$171	56
2549 Allegretto Sea Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,991 (+7%)	1mo	$344,990	$173	56
2532 Allegretto Sea Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-12%)	9mo	$329,990	$202	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-93,785
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -92.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.02×
• Total profit: $-160,976
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 44 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 22.0 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $345,000 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 38 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 4013
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,554 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$941 /mo · $11,297/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $-637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,360

Max offer price $225,944

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-476	-5% $-556	+0% $-637	+5% $-718	+10% $-798
Rent	-10% $-839	-5% $-738	+0% $-637	+5% $-536	+10% $-435
Rate	-1.0pp $-494	-0.5pp $-565	base $-637	+0.5pp $-711	+1.0pp $-786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2920 Eden Lake Ln Unit NA Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	2178	$2,475	$1.14	43d	1	0.08mi
2845 Shimmer Edge Dr Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	2362	$2,249	$0.95	90d	1	0.13mi
3029 Sorrento Hill Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1819	$2,695	$1.48	1d	1	0.20mi
2972 Golden Dust Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,795	$1.46	18d	1	0.29mi
2654 Aruba Bend Dr Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	1958	$2,348	$1.20	0d	76	0.31mi
3081 Sorrento Hill Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1819	$2,800	$1.54	1d	1	0.35mi
1301 Tan Gable Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2615	$3,200	$1.22	3d	1	0.47mi
28625 Clay Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,000	$1.07	139d	1	0.70mi
808 Marisol Bay Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2423	$2,695	$1.11	36d	1	0.87mi
1008 Caramel Shores Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2492	$3,100	$1.24	39d	1	1.05mi
1024 Greenshank Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2390	$2,900	$1.21	8d	1	1.09mi
409 Aurora Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1964	$2,100	$1.07	68d	1	1.22mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	108d	1	1.40mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,005	$1.13	19d	1	1.42mi
1496 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2135	$2,500	$1.17	75d	1	1.43mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$1,845	$1.20	19d	1	1.43mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,005	$1.13	19d	1	1.44mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	139d	1	1.44mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,020	$1.31	68d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sunterra Homeowners AssociationAnnual association feeCommunity amenities include clubhouse, community pool, fitness center, park, trails, tennis courts, pickleball courts, and dog park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2023Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision lotAsphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeMicrowaveOvenGarbage disposalRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on the ground floor
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningHas heatingHas cooling
• Interior features: All bedrooms on the ground floorBreakfast barEn suite bathroomKitchen and family room combinationWalk-in closet(s)Window treatmentsWindow coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupWasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $285,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $285,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $285,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $285,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $285,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $285,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $285,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $285,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 7 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 5 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $285,000 Active 3 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $285,000 Active 2 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    pricedays on marketlisting id $285,000 Active 1 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $295,000 Active 196 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $295,000 Active 195 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $295,000 Active 194 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $295,000 Active 193 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $295,000 Active 192 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $295,000 Active 191 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $295,000 Active 190 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $295,000 Active 189 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $295,000 Active 188 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $295,000 Active 187 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $295,000 Active 186 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $295,000 Active 185 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $295,000 Active 184 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $295,000 Active 183 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $295,000 Active 182 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $295,000 Active 181 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $295,000 Active 180 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $295,000 Active 179 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $295,000 Active 177 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $295,000 Active 176 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $295,000 Active 175 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $295,000 Active 174 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 171 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $300,000 Active 170 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $300,000 Active 169 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $300,000 Active 168 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $300,000 Active 166 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $300,000 Active 164 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $300,000 Active 163 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,297 · $941/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,297 · $941/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$11,297
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,452
• − Management: −$2,452
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$12,433
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,984
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Sunterra, Katy, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a spacious kitchen, a private primary suite, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can improve convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing and functional. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for both buyers and tenants. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Katy El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 60,772 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sunterra Homeowners AssociationAnnual association feeCommunity amenities include clubhouse, community pool, fitness center, park, trails, tennis courts, pickleball courts, and dog park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2023Slab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision lotAsphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherFree-standing rangeMicrowaveOvenGarbage disposalRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on the ground floor
• Flooring: CarpetLaminateTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningHas heatingHas cooling
• Interior features: All bedrooms on the ground floorBreakfast barEn suite bathroomKitchen and family room combinationWalk-in closet(s)Window treatmentsWindow coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupWasherDryer

Price history

-10.9% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-08-26 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-08-02 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-11-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-11-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-11-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-10-30 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2023-10-24 Listed $320,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+167.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,297 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.