21020 Birch Pl · Ocean Park, WA 98640

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1994 7,405 sqft lot $10/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors!!! Bring your hammer and vision to this three-bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home on quiet cul-de-sac in area of cute homes. Tenants are in process of moving out, so don't mind the extra yard art. Tenants require accepted off prior to showings

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1994
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Sunset Sands association; Annual association fee of $125 covering common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No additional designated parking
• Security: Partially fenced
• Utilities: Electric power (PUD #2); Public water (North Beach Water); Septic tank sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single-family residence, one story; Main entry; Built on lot; Fixer condition; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Built in 1994 (effective year); Wood construction; Composition roof; House structure; One level; Built-on-lot foundation (standard site-built)
• Exterior features: Wood exterior products; Deck; Partially fenced yard; Outbuildings; Corner lot on a cul-de-sac; Level topography; Has a view

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath; Main level has both the full and half bath; 1 bathtub; 1 shower
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $881 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.2% in Ocean Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#216 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: commute D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Ocean Beach School District (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #212 of 291 in WA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ocean Park Elementary (196 students, 76% FRL); Ilwaco High School (296 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Pacific County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pacific County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.98%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $389,844
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22214 V St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,273 (-4%)	14mo	$500,000	$393	43
2703 221st Pl	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (+9%)	11mo	$386,000	$268	40
2000 201st St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,155 (-13%)	12mo	$339,000	$294	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $33,492
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $101,628
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98640

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,177/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $881

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,245

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $140,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   status $150,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    status $150,000 Pending 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-18
    listed $150,000 Active
14. 2009-09-21
    soldstatus $128,500 Sold
15. 2009-09-17
    soldstatus $128,500
16. 2009-05-29
    historical
17. 2009-01-21
    listed $149,000
18. 2002-07-05
    soldstatus $91,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,177 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,177 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥74°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,177
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,267
• − Management: −$2,267
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $8,888
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,133
• After-tax cash flow: $8,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ocean Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5306060
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,549
• Composite: 37.37/100
• National rank: #8929
• State rank: #212 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #6161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,107

Population outlook (Pacific County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,636 people
• By 2030: 20,137 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,041 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 18,504 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 17,403 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 16,241 · -21.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pacific

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 49.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.1pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: R+1.1 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+14.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.15%
• Current HPI: 222.8758
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+63.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $150,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-21 Sold (MLS) $128,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $128,500 Public Records
• 2009-05-29 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-21 Listed $149,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $91,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,177 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.