1680 Cedar Crossing Dr · Conroe, TX 77301

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 906 sqft · Land · 179 Days on market

Built 2025 4,978 sqft lot $160/sqft · 21% below area Est $183k · 21% under $6/mo HOA ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1680 Cedar Creek Drive, located in the peaceful Cedar Creek community. Just minutes from shopping, dining, and the vibrant Downtown Conroe, this brand-new 2025 home, built by Habitat for Humanity Montgomery County, has never been lived in. Featuring an open floor plan, all-new appliances, vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas, and carpet in the bedrooms. All doors are ADA certified, making it accessible and functional for everyone.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Vinyl flooring
• All new appliances

Tags

• CEDAR CREEK COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ALL NEW APPLIANCES
• VINYL FLOORING
• ADA CERTIFIED DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.83%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,124
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -20.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-17,306
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,648
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77301

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,296 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $811/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,132

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $212	-5% $171	+0% $130	+5% $89	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $78	+0% $130	+5% $181	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $166	base $130	+0.5pp $92	+1.0pp $54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1299 S 7th St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,350	$1.40	19d	1	0.51mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2137 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	618	$960	$1.55	44d	1	0.61mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2143 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,188	$1.23	44d	1	0.61mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 1228 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	735	$1,063	$1.45	3d	1	0.61mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 1162 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	735	$1,066	$1.45	5d	1	0.61mi
2086 Porter Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	877	$1,488	$1.70	2d	1	0.61mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2107 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	605	$998	$1.65	14d	1	0.61mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2162 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,353	$1.40	7d	1	0.61mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,345	$1.39	3d	1	0.61mi
2086 Porter Rd Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	605	$993	$1.64	14d	1	0.61mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2174 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,388	$1.44	12d	1	0.61mi
2086 Porter Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	973	$1,854	$1.91	7d	1	0.61mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 320 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	735	$1,066	$1.45	7d	1	0.61mi
1933 Argo Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,324	$1.37	24d	7	0.61mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2160 Conroe, TX	1.0	1.0	735	$1,105	$1.50	10d	1	0.67mi
11656 Conroe Porter Rd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,200	$1.24	44d	1	0.70mi
1303 S 2nd St Unit 8 Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	890	$950	$1.07	15d	1	0.78mi
1303 S 2nd St Unit 4 Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	890	$950	$1.07	44d	1	0.78mi
1611 Hazelwood St Unit A Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,145	$1.14	24d	1	0.99mi
317 Gladstell St Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	930	$1,020	$1.10	44d	1	1.02mi
601 Booker T Washington St Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	864	$1,100	$1.27	44d	1	1.10mi
601 Booker T Washington St Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	864	$1,089	$1.26	5d	1	1.10mi
500 Hickerson St Conroe, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1165	$1,250	$1.07	5d	3	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 456-char remark

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Welcome to 1680 Cedar Creek Drive, located in the peaceful Cedar Creek community. Just minutes from shopping, dining, and the vibrant Downtown Conroe, this brand-new 2025 home, built by Habitat for Humanity Montgomery County, has never been lived in. Featuring an open floor plan, all-new appliances, vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas, and carpet in the bedrooms. All doors are ADA certified, making it accessible and functional for everyone.

2. 2026-05-13
   price $145,000 456-char remark

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Welcome to 1680 Cedar Creek Drive, located in the peaceful Cedar Creek community. Just minutes from shopping, dining, and the vibrant Downtown Conroe, this brand-new 2025 home, built by Habitat for Humanity Montgomery County, has never been lived in. Featuring an open floor plan, all-new appliances, vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas, and carpet in the bedrooms. All doors are ADA certified, making it accessible and functional for everyone.

3. 2025-12-01
   listed $160,000 Active 456-char remark

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Welcome to 1680 Cedar Creek Drive, located in the peaceful Cedar Creek community. Just minutes from shopping, dining, and the vibrant Downtown Conroe, this brand-new 2025 home, built by Habitat for Humanity Montgomery County, has never been lived in. Featuring an open floor plan, all-new appliances, vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas, and carpet in the bedrooms. All doors are ADA certified, making it accessible and functional for everyone.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $811 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,843/yr (+$154/mo · 227.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$811
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$883
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$212
• After-tax cash flow: $1,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,769
• Household income: $66,475
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1256.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.51%
• Current HPI: 278.6662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $160,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $811 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.