3011 Park Cir · Haines City, FL 33844

$30,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1970 0.26 ac lot ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity in Polk County! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home approximately 672 sq ft of living space and sits on a spacious 0.26-acre lot in Haines City. The property features additional storage space for tools and equipment, along with plenty of yard space offering potential for improvements, rental income, or a value-add investment opportunity. For investors, landlords, or handy owner-occupants looking for a fixer-upper with upside. Conveniently located near US-27 with easy access to shopping centers, restaurants, schools, medical offices, and everyday conveniences. The property is also within driving distance to Posner Park, ChampionsGate, and Central Florida attractions in

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Nearby parks
• Nearby lakes

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SPACE
• YARD SPACE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• NEARBY LAKES
• NEARBY PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R-3; Lot is approximately 0.26 acres (about 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• Financial info: No investor or rental income details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Well water; Private sewer; Water and sewer available; Other utilities listed
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Northeast facing entry
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built as a single wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ductless heating option; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 125.35%
• DSCR: 6.58
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $21,526
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $46,544
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,461 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,287/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $891

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $459	+0% $451	+5% $442	+10% $434
Rent	-10% $335	-5% $393	+0% $451	+5% $509	+10% $566
Rate	-1.0pp $466	-0.5pp $459	base $451	+0.5pp $443	+1.0pp $435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $30,000 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $30,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $30,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $30,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $30,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $30,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $30,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$1,287
• − Insurance: −$5,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,403
• − Management: −$1,403
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $5,622
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,349
• After-tax cash flow: $4,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-47.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $30,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2014-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 1997-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $56,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,287 · +16.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.