3278 Fancher Rd · Holley, NY 14411

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,932 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1878 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious home with 1st floor new windows. Roof 2011,furnace2012, Woodstove chimney fire protector insert. Please give 24 hr. notice.

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Formal dining room
• Bonus room

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• WOOD STOVE
• BONUS ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• OVERSIZED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.4% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#705 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Holley Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #505 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; built in 1878 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1878 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.36%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $6,780
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $35,949
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14411

• Home prices YoY: -11.6%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,332/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,173

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $386	+0% $358	+5% $330	+10% $301
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $294	+0% $358	+5% $422	+10% $486
Rate	-1.0pp $408	-0.5pp $383	base $358	+0.5pp $332	+1.0pp $306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-23
   historical
3. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-23
   listed $99,900 Active
6. 2016-08-08
   soldstatus $85,000
7. 2016-08-05
   soldstatus $85,000 Closed Sale or Rented 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Spacious home with 1st floor new windows. Roof 2011,furnace2012, Woodstove chimney fire protector insert. Please give 24 hr. notice.

8. 2016-03-16
   listed $94,900 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Spacious home with 1st floor new windows. Roof 2011,furnace2012, Woodstove chimney fire protector insert. Please give 24 hr. notice.

9. 2005-10-19
   soldstatus $75,000
10. 1998-08-24
    soldstatus $61,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,332 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,332 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$4,332
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,561
• − Management: −$1,561
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,055
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$733
• After-tax cash flow: $3,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,177
• Composite: 35.13/100
• National rank: #5013
• State rank: #505 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #705
• US rank: #13281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,479

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.68%
• Current HPI: 302.9236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+63.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-23 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $99,900 UNYREIS
• 2016-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-05 Sold (MLS) $85,000 UNYREIS
• 2016-03-16 Listed $94,900 UNYREIS
• 2005-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1998-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,332 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.