564 Locust St · North Tonawanda, NY 14120

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1941 4,356 sqft lot Est $209k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained, refinished hardwood floors, 2007 windows, glass block in basement, charming garden yard

Key facts

• Tree lined street
• Full basement
• Delightful backyard

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FULL BASEMENT
• DELIGHTFUL BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• TREE LINED STREET
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story building (per public record); Resale property; City street frontage
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Partial fence; Porch (open); Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen; Appliances negotiable
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 on second level (16.0 x 10.0); Bedroom 2 on second level (15.0 x 13.0)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermal windows; Separate/formal living room; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-243/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in North Tonawanda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#30 in NY, #518 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• North Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #398 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spruce School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 313 students, 68% FRL); North Tonawanda Middle School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 447 students, 50% FRL); North Tonawanda High School (math 93% / reading 64%, grade A-, #562 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,001 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 34% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $165k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,966 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
525 E Thompson St	0.07mi	2/1.0	888 (-3%)	19mo	$220,000	$248	76
120 Rumbold Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	998 (+9%)	13mo	$230,000	$230	60
169 Rumbold Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0	780 (-14%)	9mo	$142,500	$183	58
31 Cramer St	0.37mi	2/1.0	994 (+9%)	14mo	$182,000	$183	56
447 Robinson St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+5%)	19mo	$165,000	$172	54
226 Schenck St	0.68mi	2/1.5	930 (+2%)	14mo	$150,000	$161	52
354 Falconer St	0.48mi	2/1.0	816 (-10%)	11mo	$162,500	$199	51
271 Roncroff Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0	840 (-8%)	12mo	$192,000	$229	50
283 Roncroff Dr	0.57mi	2/1.0	840 (-8%)	15mo	$202,000	$240	48
355 Bryant St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,003 (+10%)	10mo	$191,400	$191	45
57 Donald Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (+11%)	8mo	$252,500	$249	36
78 Donald Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,014 (+11%)	12mo	$235,000	$232	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-23,580
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,812
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14120

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,440 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,683/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,465

Max offer price $161,422

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $26	+0% $-20	+5% $-67	+10% $-114
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-77	+0% $-20	+5% $37	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $22	base $-20	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
166 Spruce St Unit 5 North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	25d	1	0.34mi
399 Miller St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	25d	1	0.59mi
900 E Robinson St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	0d	1	0.61mi
705 Sandra Ln North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,895	$2.61	0d	14	0.63mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,775	$1.65	0d	1	0.71mi
125 3rd Ave North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	1.06mi
317 Hedwig Dr Unit N North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	12d	1	1.18mi
109 6th Ave Unit 1 North Tonawanda, NY	1.0	1.0	620	$1,100	$1.77	0d	1	1.20mi
103 Raintree Is Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	0d	26	1.31mi
600 River Rd North Tonawanda, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1320	$3,470	$2.63	0d	12	1.37mi
5 7th Ave North Tonawanda, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$1,050	$1.75	25d	1	1.37mi
175 12th Ave North Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,683 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,736 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$53/yr (+$4/mo · 2.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,683
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,382
• − Management: −$1,382
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,038
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$729
• After-tax cash flow: $486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3621240
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,348
• Composite: 42.15/100
• National rank: #3301
• State rank: #398 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Tonawanda

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #518

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Tonawanda, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 44,241
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,241
• Household income: $74,871
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1303.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.39%
• Current HPI: 303.1744
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+114.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $165,000 WNYREIS
• 2009-12-30 Sold (MLS) $77,900 WNYREIS
• 2009-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $77,900 Public Records
• 2009-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $77,900 Public Records
• 2009-10-06 Listed $76,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,683 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.