11684 Lazy Oak Creek Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$310,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,233 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $139/sqft · 10% above area Est $282k · 10% over $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home offers a spacious and modern layout ready for any lifestyle. A first-floor owner's suite provides a serene retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, while a flexible open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room with easy access to an inviting covered patio. On the second floor, a versatile loft provides a convenient shared living space easily accessible from three secondary bedrooms, with one featuring an en-suite bathroom for streamlined, everyday living.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Versatile loft
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR OWNERS SUITE
• FLEXIBLE OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• INVITING COVERED PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $311k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-252 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($292k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,352 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,750
• List price: $310,990
• Delta: 10.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11692 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,083 (-7%)	1mo	$361,990	$174	83
11685 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,083 (-7%)	1mo	$278,540	$134	82
11697 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.14mi	4/3.5	2,400 (+8%)	2mo	$379,990	$158	79
11705 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,083 (-7%)	2mo	$358,990	$172	78
11983 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-11%)	2mo	$300,990	$152	71
12024 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-11%)	2mo	$300,990	$152	71
12003 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-11%)	3mo	$300,990	$152	56
12014 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-11%)	3mo	$298,990	$151	56
12044 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-11%)	4mo	$300,990	$152	56
12035 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-11%)	4mo	$298,990	$151	56
29981 Stony Forest Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,477 (+11%)	1mo	$399,990	$161	47
30313 Ruby Forest Ct	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,477 (+11%)	1mo	$387,000	$156	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $146,976
• Equity at exit: $280,164

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $433,897
• Equity at exit: $604,185

Cash invested: $87,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,444 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,631
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,665/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $-252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,762

Max offer price $274,554

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-144	+0% $-252	+5% $-359	+10% $-467
Rent	-10% $-445	-5% $-348	+0% $-252	+5% $-155	+10% $-59
Rate	-1.0pp $-95	-0.5pp $-173	base $-252	+0.5pp $-332	+1.0pp $-414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,748
• Closing costs: $9,330
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	45d	1	0.37mi
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	45d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $310,990 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $302,340 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $302,340 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $302,340 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $302,340 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $302,340 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $302,340 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $303,490 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $303,490 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $303,490 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $303,490 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $303,490 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $303,490 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $303,490 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $303,490 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This new two-story home offers a spacious and modern layout ready for any lifestyle. A first-floor owner's suite provides a serene retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, while a flexible open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room with easy access to an inviting covered patio. On the second floor, a versatile loft provides a convenient shared living space easily accessible from three secondary bedrooms, with one featuring an en-suite bathroom for streamlined, everyday living.

16. 2026-05-11
    price $303,490 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    The Lucia Floor Plan - This new two-story home offers a spacious and modern layout ready for any lifestyle. A first-floor owner’s suite provides a serene retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, while a flexible open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room with easy access to an inviting covered patio. On the second floor, a versatile loft provides a convenient shared living space easily accessible from three secondary bedrooms, with one featuring an en-suite bathroom for streamlined, everyday living. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2026-05-01
    price $308,540 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This new two-story home offers a spacious and modern layout ready for any lifestyle. A first-floor owner's suite provides a serene retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, while a flexible open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room with easy access to an inviting covered patio. On the second floor, a versatile loft provides a convenient shared living space easily accessible from three secondary bedrooms, with one featuring an en-suite bathroom for streamlined, everyday living.

18. 2026-04-30
    price $308,540 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    The Lucia Floor Plan - This new two-story home offers a spacious and modern layout ready for any lifestyle. A first-floor owner’s suite provides a serene retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, while a flexible open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room with easy access to an inviting covered patio. On the second floor, a versatile loft provides a convenient shared living space easily accessible from three secondary bedrooms, with one featuring an en-suite bathroom for streamlined, everyday living. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

19. 2026-04-28
    price $318,390 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    This new two-story home offers a spacious and modern layout ready for any lifestyle. A first-floor owner's suite provides a serene retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, while a flexible open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room with easy access to an inviting covered patio. On the second floor, a versatile loft provides a convenient shared living space easily accessible from three secondary bedrooms, with one featuring an en-suite bathroom for streamlined, everyday living.

20. 2026-04-27
    price $318,390 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    The Lucia Floor Plan - This new two-story home offers a spacious and modern layout ready for any lifestyle. A first-floor owner’s suite provides a serene retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, while a flexible open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room with easy access to an inviting covered patio. On the second floor, a versatile loft provides a convenient shared living space easily accessible from three secondary bedrooms, with one featuring an en-suite bathroom for streamlined, everyday living. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

21. 2026-04-06
    listed $329,990 Active 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    The Lucia Floor Plan - This new two-story home offers a spacious and modern layout ready for any lifestyle. A first-floor owner’s suite provides a serene retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, while a flexible open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room with easy access to an inviting covered patio. On the second floor, a versatile loft provides a convenient shared living space easily accessible from three secondary bedrooms, with one featuring an en-suite bathroom for streamlined, everyday living. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

22. 2026-04-06
    listed $329,990 Active 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    The Lucia Floor Plan - This new two-story home offers a spacious and modern layout ready for any lifestyle. A first-floor owner’s suite provides a serene retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet, while a flexible open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room with easy access to an inviting covered patio. On the second floor, a versatile loft provides a convenient shared living space easily accessible from three secondary bedrooms, with one featuring an en-suite bathroom for streamlined, everyday living. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,420
• − Property taxes: −$4,665
• − Insurance: −$1,555
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,346
• − Management: −$2,346
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$9,047
• Taxable loss: −$8,452
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,029
• After-tax cash flow: $-993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern two-story home is in excellent condition with a spacious and open floor plan. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior brick — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more buyers
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior brick — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $303,490 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $303,490 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $308,540 Zillow
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $308,540 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $318,390 Zillow
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $318,390 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-06 Listed $329,990 HARMLS