158 Washington Way · Venus, TX 76084

$289,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,228 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2006 5,000 sqft lot Est $352k · 18% under $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Need room to grow or want room to show? Whatever your heart desires, this spacious home in Patriot Estates has open living areas on separate floors to give you room to breathe and room to be. There are many wonderful possibilities. If you feel you need a little more elbow room, break free from your closed in spaces and come enjoy your Independence! Highest and best offers due by Monday, April 26 at 4 PM

Key facts

• Community pool
• Venus isd
• Neighborhood park

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• NEIGHBORHOOD PARK
• PATRIOT ESTATES COMMUNITY
• VENUS ISD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Deed restrictions; Not in a municipal utility district
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA covers grounds maintenance; HOA fee $183 semi-annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; garage faces front; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors installed
• Utilities: City sewer; Co-op water; Concrete curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Entry on front of home; Built in 2006; Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Gutters; Wood fencing; Cleared, landscaped interior lot with a few trees; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric oven; Electric range; Built-in cabinets; Dual sinks; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface (non-natural) counters
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on 2nd level with walk-in closet; Additional bedrooms on 2nd and 1st levels with walk-in closets
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Garden tub in an upstairs bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Wood-burning brick fireplace
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Two living areas; Two dining areas; 13 total rooms; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Separate utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,448 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.70%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $352,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
153 Jefferson Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,228 (0%)	0mo	$289,500	$130	92
137 Jefferson Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,228 (0%)	6mo	$288,000	$129	84
106 Rushmore Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,135 (-4%)	4mo	$293,000	$137	80
103 Presidents Way	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,135 (-4%)	6mo	$300,000	$141	78
202 Julian Davis Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,189 (-2%)	2mo	$359,900	$164	68
203 Julian Davis Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,189 (-2%)	3mo	$321,900	$147	68
206 Julian Davis Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,189 (-2%)	3mo	$307,900	$141	67
426 Gib Woodall Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,189 (-2%)	6mo	$344,900	$158	58
213 Patton Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,369 (+6%)	2mo	$374,990	$158	52
114 Patrick Henry Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,977 (-11%)	3mo	$339,990	$172	47
124 Patrick Henry Dr	0.65mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,054 (-8%)	2mo	$339,590	$165	46
110 John Laurens Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,989 (-11%)	6mo	$329,990	$166	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $81,032
• Equity at exit: $206,709

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $250,903
• Equity at exit: $398,299

Cash invested: $81,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,365 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,518
• Tax from tax record: −$584 /mo · $7,010/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,853

Max offer price $221,448

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-221	-5% $-303	+0% $-385	+5% $-467	+10% $-549
Rent	-10% $-572	-5% $-479	+0% $-385	+5% $-292	+10% $-198
Rate	-1.0pp $-239	-0.5pp $-312	base $-385	+0.5pp $-460	+1.0pp $-537

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,375
• Closing costs: $8,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
131 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,169	$1.31	23d	1	0.17mi
108 Rushmore Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,969	$1.19	25d	1	0.18mi
120 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,149	$1.29	44d	1	0.20mi
113 Franklin Ct Venus, TX	5.0	2.0	2959	$2,370	$0.80	2d	1	0.20mi
112 Liberty Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,309	$1.39	44d	1	0.22mi
170 Kennedy Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	2d	1	0.23mi
101 Hancock St Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,929	$1.09	2d	1	0.24mi
135 Houston Pl Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,029	$1.28	2d	1	0.25mi
640-644 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,100	$1.09	2d	1	0.51mi
628 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,200	$1.48	2d	1	0.54mi
201 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,195	$1.35	20d	1	0.55mi
208 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,330	$1.31	12d	1	0.57mi
214 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	44d	1	0.59mi
720 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,200	$1.14	8d	1	0.63mi
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,535	$1.28	2d	1	0.69mi
147 Sammy Fowler Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,250	$1.33	2d	1	0.75mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	23d	1	0.79mi
325 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$2,325	$1.06	13d	1	0.82mi
523 Bennie Leonard St Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,350	$1.39	2d	1	0.83mi
358 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,995	$1.20	2d	1	0.86mi
428 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,150	$1.21	25d	1	0.87mi
313 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	8d	1	0.87mi
315 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,515	$1.16	3d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,500 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,500 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,500 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,500 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,500 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,500 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 675-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $289,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,010 · $584/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,010 · $584/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,385
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,217
• − Property taxes: −$7,010
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$8,422
• Taxable loss: −$9,624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,310
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+104.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $289,500 NTREIS
• 2024-02-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-01-09 Listed $339,995 NTREIS
• 2021-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-24 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-05-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-04-29 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-04-22 Listed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2018-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-05 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-02-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-02-02 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2018-01-26 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2018-01-25 Listed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2018-01-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2016-03-16 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-02-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-11-10 Listed $141,500 NTREIS
• 2006-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,010 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.