953 Savannah River Dr · Adrian, MI 49221

$44,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Other · 51 Days on market

Built 1996

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable 2-bedroom home for sale in Hidden River North! Nice move-in ready home with a newer roof, all appliances included, deck off the back overlooking a wooded area plus a carport and a shed. Call today! Bas lot rent is $750/mo

Key facts

• Shed
• Newer roof
• Deck off the back

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• DECK OFF THE BACK
• WOODED AREA
• CARPORT
• SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (no attached garage)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Ranch-style single-family residential; Built in 1996
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Lot recorded in acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (13 x 12); Bedroom 2 (10 x 9)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Total of 5 rooms; Basement: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $44k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 46.5% vs local median 5.7% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#342 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Madison School District (Lenawee) (town): math 34% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #195 of 540 in MI (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $42,680 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 143.52%
• DSCR: 7.39
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.04×
• Total profit: $86,747
• Equity at exit: $6,561

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.95×
• Total profit: $196,514
• Equity at exit: $3,804

Cash invested: $12,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49221

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$55 /mo · $660/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $1,473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $385

Max offer price $44,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,000
• Closing costs: $1,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1962 W Cadmus Rd Adrian, MI	3.0	2.0	1170	$2,250	$1.92	21d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $44,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $44,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $44,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $44,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $44,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Affordable 2-bedroom home for sale in Hidden River North! Nice move-in ready home with a newer roof, all appliances included, deck off the back overlooking a wooded area plus a carport and a shed. Call today! Bas lot rent is $750/mo

17. 2026-04-28
    listed $44,000 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Affordable 2-bedroom home for sale in Hidden River North! Nice move-in ready home with a newer roof, all appliances included, deck off the back overlooking a wooded area plus a carport and a shed. Call today! Bas lot rent is $750/mo

18. 2026-04-28
    listed $44,000 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Affordable 2-bedroom home for sale in Hidden River North! Nice move-in ready home with a newer roof, all appliances included, deck off the back overlooking a wooded area plus a carport and a shed. Call today! Bas lot rent is $750/mo

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,465
• − Property taxes: −$660
• − Insurance: −$220
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$1,280
• Taxable income: $18,055
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,333
• After-tax cash flow: $13,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison School District (Lenawee)
• NCES district ID: 2622320
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,961
• Composite: 35.35/100
• National rank: #4959
• State rank: #195 of 540 in MI

Livability — Adrian

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #8722

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adrian, MI
• City population: 41,041
• Population (ZIP): 41,041

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.64%
• Current HPI: 237.3796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $44,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $44,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-28 Listed $44,000 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $69 · -12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.