117 Locust Ln · Eatons Neck, NY 11768

$1,095,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 1963 200 ac lot Est $1110k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Elegant Custom 4 Bedroom Sprawling Ranch Sits on 2 Scenic Acres w/ Mature Plantings & Perennials. Vaulted Ceiling Living Room with Walls Of Windows Looking Out To Park Like Grounds. Updated Kitchen w/ Granite Countertops & Stainless Steel Appliances. Cozy Either Sitting Room Or Eat In Kitchen Area With Fireplace Off Of Kitchen. Spacious Ensuite Master w/ Office & Palladian Windows Offering Spectacular Views. Renovated First Floor Bathroom w/ Carerra Marble. New Wood Floors in Master & Restored Wood Floors Throughout. Wonderful Outdoor Entertaining Porch + Patio. Full House Generator! Homeowner's Association Dues $297 Yearly. Gorgeous Beach, Playground, Kayak Stands, Picnic Tables & Mooring Only 1 Block Away!! Serenity Awaits!, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Marble Bath

Key facts

• Private acres
• Mature plantings
• Granite countertops

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• MATURE PLANTINGS
• LIGHT-FILLED LIVING ROOM
• DRAMATIC WALLS OF WINDOWS
• UPDATED CHEF'S KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.09M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $1.09M).
• Recommended offer: $1.06M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#910 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northport-East Northport Union Free School District (suburban): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #101 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Norwood Avenue School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #314 of 2,108 statewide, top 17%, 434 students, 15% FRL); Northport Middle School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 700 students, 13% FRL); Northport Senior High School (math 97% / reading 62%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,645 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $33k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.06M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,062,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.29%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,109,700
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Drake Pl	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,000 (+11%)	14mo	$1,232,000	$411	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-90,750
• Equity at exit: $163,268

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $34,058
• Equity at exit: $94,676

Cash invested: $306,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11768

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,742
• Tax from tax record: −$1,929 /mo · $23,144/yr
• Insurance: −$456
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $1,353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,288

Max offer price $1,095,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,973	-5% $1,663	+0% $1,353	+5% $1,043	+10% $733
Rent	-10% $405	-5% $879	+0% $1,353	+5% $1,827	+10% $2,301
Rate	-1.0pp $1,904	-0.5pp $1,631	base $1,353	+0.5pp $1,069	+1.0pp $780

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $273,750
• Closing costs: $32,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
140 Old Winkle Point Rd Northport, NY	3.0	3.5	2000	$12,000	$6.00	2d	1	0.34mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2025-12-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-12
   listed $1,095,000 Active
3. 2024-09-10
   listed $1,375,000 Active
4. 2020-11-05
   soldstatus $998,000
5. 2020-09-29
   soldstatus $998,000 Closed 837-char remark

   Show marketing remark (837 chars)

   Elegant Custom 4 Bedroom Sprawling Ranch Sits on 2 Scenic Acres w/ Mature Plantings & Perennials. Vaulted Ceiling Living Room with Walls Of Windows Looking Out To Park Like Grounds. Updated Kitchen w/ Granite Countertops & Stainless Steel Appliances. Cozy Either Sitting Room Or Eat In Kitchen Area With Fireplace Off Of Kitchen. Spacious Ensuite Master w/ Office & Palladian Windows Offering Spectacular Views. Renovated First Floor Bathroom w/ Carerra Marble. New Wood Floors in Master & Restored Wood Floors Throughout. Wonderful Outdoor Entertaining Porch + Patio. Full House Generator! Homeowner's Association Dues $297 Yearly. Gorgeous Beach, Playground, Kayak Stands, Picnic Tables & Mooring Only 1 Block Away!! Serenity Awaits!, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Marble Bath

6. 2020-04-21
   listed $998,000 Active 837-char remark

   Show marketing remark (837 chars)

   Elegant Custom 4 Bedroom Sprawling Ranch Sits on 2 Scenic Acres w/ Mature Plantings & Perennials. Vaulted Ceiling Living Room with Walls Of Windows Looking Out To Park Like Grounds. Updated Kitchen w/ Granite Countertops & Stainless Steel Appliances. Cozy Either Sitting Room Or Eat In Kitchen Area With Fireplace Off Of Kitchen. Spacious Ensuite Master w/ Office & Palladian Windows Offering Spectacular Views. Renovated First Floor Bathroom w/ Carerra Marble. New Wood Floors in Master & Restored Wood Floors Throughout. Wonderful Outdoor Entertaining Porch + Patio. Full House Generator! Homeowner's Association Dues $297 Yearly. Gorgeous Beach, Playground, Kayak Stands, Picnic Tables & Mooring Only 1 Block Away!! Serenity Awaits!, Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Lr/Dr,Marble Bath

7. 2018-08-17
   soldstatus $950,000
8. 2018-07-06
   soldstatus $950,000 Closed
9. 2017-12-18
   status Under Contract
10. 2017-10-12
    listed $999,000 New
11. 2014-05-09
    soldstatus $850,000
12. 2014-04-25
    soldstatus $850,000 Closed
13. 2014-04-25
    soldstatus $850,000
14. 2014-03-27
    status Under Contract
15. 2013-12-10
    listed $929,000 New
16. 2013-12-10
    listed $929,000
17. 2012-06-20
    soldstatus $750,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $23,144 · $1,929/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $23,144 · $1,929/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$61,337
• − Property taxes: −$23,144
• − Insurance: −$5,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − Depreciation: −$31,855
• Taxable loss: −$850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$204
• After-tax cash flow: $16,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northport-East Northport Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621270
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $104,656
• Composite: 64.22/100
• National rank: #563
• State rank: #101 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eatons Neck

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #910
• US rank: #17801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eatons Neck, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,908

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -703.89%
• Current HPI: 246.4282
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+46.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Listed $1,095,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-10 Listed $1,375,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $998,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-29 Sold (MLS) $998,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-21 Listed $998,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $950,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-06 Sold (MLS) $950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-12 Listed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $850,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-25 Sold (MLS) $850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-25 Sold (MLS) $850,000 MLSLI
• 2014-03-27 Pending — MLSLI
• 2013-12-10 Listed $929,000 MLSLI
• 2013-12-10 Listed $929,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $750,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $23,144 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.