33653 Green Valley Ln · Running Springs, CA 92341

$285,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Built 2009 Good condition 5,773 sqft lot $328/sqft · 11% below area Est $321k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the tranquil charm of Green Valley Lake with this beautifully rebuilt (2009) and fully furnished mountain cabin, ideally tucked away on a peaceful cul-de-sac. Offering both privacy and comfort, this turnkey retreat is perfect as a personal getaway or a proven income-producing vacation rental. Step inside to an inviting open-concept great room where the kitchen and living area come together seamlessly—creating the ideal space for relaxing or entertaining. With one bedroom and one bath, the layout is thoughtfully designed for simplicity, comfort, and effortless mountain living. Enjoy year-round adventure just minutes away—approximately 10 minutes to Snow Valley Mountain Resort, 20 minutes to Lake Arrowhead, and 30 minutes to Big Bear Lake—offering skiing, hiking, biking, and endless outdoor recreation. As an owner, you’ll also enjoy full access to Green Valley Lake amenities, including boating, fishing, swimming, and a sandy beach—adding to the lifestyle appeal for both personal use and guests. Rebuilt in 2009, the home blends modern comforts with classic cabin charm and is offered fully furnished—just bring your personal items and start enjoying immediately. With a strong history as a successful short-term rental, this property presents an exceptional opportunity for both lifestyle and investment. Don’t miss your chance to own a slice of mountain paradise in one of the best-kept secrets of the San Bernardino Mountains.

Key facts

• Sandy beach
• Peaceful cul-de-sac
• Fully furnished

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• FULLY FURNISHED
• PEACEFUL CUL-DE-SAC
• SANDY BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Running Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#333 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Charles Hoffman Elementary (295 students, 54% FRL); Mary P. Henck Intermediate (math 13% / reading 36%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 585 students, 61% FRL); Rim of The World Senior High (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #950 of 1,170 statewide, top 82%, 917 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; list at $285k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,288 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.74%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,100
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -11.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33794 Meadow Ln	0.23mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (+4%)	9mo	$312,500	$347	71
732 Tulip Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0 (+1)	864 (-0%)	5mo	$349,000	$404	67
559 Beechnut Dr	0.35mi	2/1.5 (+1)	896 (+3%)	6mo	$299,000	$334	66
33427 Wild Cherry Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0 (+1)	868 (0%)	20mo	$280,000	$323	65
664 Yukon Rd	0.38mi	2/1.0 (+1)	810 (-7%)	2mo	$335,000	$414	64
33855 Meadow Ln	0.28mi	2/1.0 (+1)	780 (-10%)	3mo	$249,000	$319	62
33294 Wild Rose Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0 (+1)	868 (0%)	11mo	$307,000	$354	62
33638 Green Valley Lake Rd	0.07mi	2/1.0 (+1)	756 (-13%)	22mo	$250,000	$331	52
33380 Bluebird Dr	0.33mi	1/1.0	758 (-13%)	15mo	$250,000	$330	51
33193 Holcomb Creek Dr	0.59mi	1/1.0	889 (+2%)	21mo	$385,000	$433	51
540 Beechnut Dr	0.38mi	2/1.5 (+1)	744 (-14%)	7mo	$310,000	$417	46
33117 Maple Ln	0.67mi	1/1.0	745 (-14%)	20mo	$360,000	$483	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-57,733
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-65,052
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92341

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,493

Max offer price $258,679

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-83	+0% $-182	+5% $-280	+10% $-379
Rent	-10% $-361	-5% $-271	+0% $-182	+5% $-93	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-38	-0.5pp $-109	base $-182	+0.5pp $-256	+1.0pp $-331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33529 Green Valley Lake Rd Green Valley Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$2,200	$2.55	13d	1	0.14mi
33424 Holcomb Creek Dr Unit NA Green Valley Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,850	$1.71	0d	1	0.31mi
691 Yukon Dr Unit B Green Valley Lake, CA	1.0	1.0	840	$3,000	$3.57	0d	1	0.33mi
558 Beechnut Dr Green Valley Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	0d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    listed $299,000 Active 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    Escape to the tranquil charm of Green Valley Lake with this beautifully rebuilt (2009) and fully furnished mountain cabin, ideally tucked away on a peaceful cul-de-sac. Offering both privacy and comfort, this turnkey retreat is perfect as a personal getaway or a proven income-producing vacation rental. Step inside to an inviting open-concept great room where the kitchen and living area come together seamlessly—creating the ideal space for relaxing or entertaining. With one bedroom and one bath, the layout is thoughtfully designed for simplicity, comfort, and effortless mountain living. Enjoy year-round adventure just minutes away—approximately 10 minutes to Snow Valley Mountain Resort, 20 minutes to Lake Arrowhead, and 30 minutes to Big Bear Lake—offering skiing, hiking, biking, and endless outdoor recreation. As an owner, you’ll also enjoy full access to Green Valley Lake amenities, including boating, fishing, swimming, and a sandy beach—adding to the lifestyle appeal for both personal use and guests. Rebuilt in 2009, the home blends modern comforts with classic cabin charm and is offered fully furnished—just bring your personal items and start enjoying immediately. With a strong history as a successful short-term rental, this property presents an exceptional opportunity for both lifestyle and investment. Don’t miss your chance to own a slice of mountain paradise in one of the best-kept secrets of the San Bernardino Mountains.

17. 2026-03-31
    listed $299,000 Active 1493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1493 chars)

    Escape to the tranquil charm of Green Valley Lake with this beautifully rebuilt (2009) and fully furnished mountain cabin, ideally tucked away on a peaceful cul-de-sac. Offering both privacy and comfort, this turnkey retreat is perfect as a personal getaway or a proven income-producing vacation rental. Step inside to an inviting open-concept great room where the kitchen and living area come together seamlessly—creating the ideal space for relaxing or entertaining. With one bedroom and one bath, the layout is thoughtfully designed for simplicity, comfort, and effortless mountain living. Enjoy year-round adventure just minutes away—approximately 10 minutes to Snow Valley Mountain Resort, 20 minutes to Lake Arrowhead, and 30 minutes to Big Bear Lake—offering skiing, hiking, biking, and endless outdoor recreation. As an owner, you’ll also enjoy full access to Green Valley Lake amenities, including boating, fishing, swimming, and a sandy beach—adding to the lifestyle appeal for both personal use and guests. Rebuilt in 2009, the home blends modern comforts with classic cabin charm and is offered fully furnished—just bring your personal items and start enjoying immediately. With a strong history as a successful short-term rental, this property presents an exceptional opportunity for both lifestyle and investment. Don’t miss your chance to own a slice of mountain paradise in one of the best-kept secrets of the San Bernardino Mountains.

18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-10-16
    price $299,000
20. 2025-07-22
    price $305,000
21. 2025-07-19
    price $305,000
22. 2025-04-30
    listed $325,000 Active
23. 2024-11-26
    historical
24. 2024-08-29
    price $320,000
25. 2024-07-26
    listed $335,000 Active
26. 2022-08-26
    historical
27. 2022-08-26
    historical
28. 2022-08-25
    historical
29. 2022-08-23
    historical
30. 2022-08-23
    historical
31. 2014-12-31
    historical
32. 2014-08-18
    price $168,000
33. 2014-02-04
    listed $178,000 Active
34. 2014-02-03
    listed $168,000
35. 2011-01-20
    listed $185,000
36. 2006-02-07
    historical
37. 2006-02-06
    historical
38. 2005-08-31
    listed $187,000
39. 2005-08-14
    listed $187,000
40. 2005-08-12
    listed $187,000
41. 2004-07-08
    soldstatus $148,000
42. 2004-07-08
    soldstatus $148,000
43. 2004-03-01
    listed $148,500
44. 2004-02-25
    listed $148,000
45. 2003-06-28
    listed $151,500
46. 2001-04-10
    listed $77,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥83°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,172
• − Management: −$2,172
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$7,146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,715
• After-tax cash flow: $-468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It's a turnkey retreat with a good layout and potential for increased value through cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Running Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #11396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,215
• Population (ZIP): 299

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 20% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Polish 13% Italian 5% Russian 4%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Vietnamese 20% Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.04%
• Current HPI: 369.4917
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+285.8% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $299,000 MRCAOR
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $305,000 MRCAOR
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $305,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $325,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-08-29 Price Changed $320,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-26 Listed $335,000 CRMLS
• 2022-08-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-26 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-08-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-12-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-08-18 Price Changed $168,000 CRMLS
• 2014-02-04 Listed $178,000 CRMLS
• 2014-02-03 Listed $168,000 CRMLS
• 2011-01-20 Listed $185,000 CRMLS
• 2006-02-07 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2006-02-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2005-08-31 Listed $187,000 CRMLS
• 2005-08-14 Listed $187,000 CRMLS
• 2005-08-12 Listed $187,000 CRMLS
• 2004-07-08 Sold (MLS) $148,000 CRMLS
• 2004-07-08 Sold (MLS) $148,000 CRMLS
• 2004-03-01 Listed $148,500 CRMLS
• 2004-02-25 Listed $148,000 CRMLS
• 2003-06-28 Listed $151,500 CRMLS
• 2001-04-10 Listed $77,500 CRMLS