4023 Saint John Way NW · Pinson, AL 35215

$104,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 322 Days on market

Built 1976 10,454 sqft lot $95/sqft · 46% below area Est $194k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in Pinson! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home offers strong potential for both investors and homebuyers. Whether you're looking to build your rental portfolio or customize your first home, this property is full of value. Located in a quiet neighborhood with convenient access to local schools, shopping, and major highways. Don’t miss your chance to take advantage of this affordable property in a growing area.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Local schools
• Shopping

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• LOCAL SCHOOLS
• SHOPPING
• MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• GROWING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 5.3% in Pinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#289 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $719 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 322 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 322 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.22%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,182
• List price: $104,000
• Delta: -46.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
321 Saint John Rd NW	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+8%)	1mo	$191,900	$162	82
3914 Caylan Cv	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,171 (+6%)	3mo	$185,000	$158	72
5947 Princess Blvd	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,171 (+6%)	10mo	$160,000	$137	67
3861 Caylan Cv	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,121 (+2%)	12mo	$185,000	$165	67
4111 Main St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+5%)	4mo	$185,000	$161	64
229 Saint John Dr NW	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,171 (+6%)	13mo	$183,000	$156	62
204 Saint John Dr NW	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,253 (+14%)	6mo	$168,000	$134	58
5841 Princess Blvd	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,253 (+14%)	7mo	$150,000	$120	58
149 Martin Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,164 (+6%)	11mo	$159,000	$137	57
3029 Apple Valley Ln	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	2mo	$88,250	$88	45
3031 Apple Valley Ln	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	4mo	$109,000	$108	44
3204 Sweeney Hollow Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	8mo	$93,900	$93	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $15,974
• Equity at exit: $15,507

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $56,279
• Equity at exit: $8,992

Cash invested: $29,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,466 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $651/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $104,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,000
• Closing costs: $3,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
212 Saint John Dr NW Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1445	$1,423	$0.98	14d	1	0.20mi
5992 Princess Blvd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,661	$1.14	43d	1	0.30mi
149 Martin Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,485	$1.28	23d	1	0.52mi
4205 Silver Lake Rd Unit 4205 Pinson, AL	2.0	1.0	1210	$1,200	$0.99	14d	1	0.84mi
4246 Centerwood Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,450	$1.09	16d	1	0.89mi
202 Westchester Dr Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1374	$1,300	$0.95	23d	1	1.00mi
3073 Panorama E Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,275	$1.31	1d	20	1.03mi
232 Glenvalley Ln NW Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	954	$1,610	$1.69	3d	1	1.12mi
3309 Chase Ln Unit 3309 Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,000	$0.94	43d	1	1.20mi
1104 Oak Creek Trl NE Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,543	$1.25	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,000 Active 322 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,000 Active 321 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,000 Active 320 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,000 Active 319 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,000 Active 317 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,000 Active 314 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,000 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,000 Active 312 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $104,000 Active 311 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,000 Active 307 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,000 Active 306 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,000 Active 305 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,000 Active 304 DOM
14. 2025-09-26
    price $104,000 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Great opportunity in Pinson! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home offers strong potential for both investors and homebuyers. Whether you're looking to build your rental portfolio or customize your first home, this property is full of value. Located in a quiet neighborhood with convenient access to local schools, shopping, and major highways. Don’t miss your chance to take advantage of this affordable property in a growing area.

15. 2025-07-31
    listed $105,000 Active 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Great opportunity in Pinson! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home offers strong potential for both investors and homebuyers. Whether you're looking to build your rental portfolio or customize your first home, this property is full of value. Located in a quiet neighborhood with convenient access to local schools, shopping, and major highways. Don’t miss your chance to take advantage of this affordable property in a growing area.

16. 2022-07-28
    soldstatus $465,000
17. 2022-07-28
    soldstatus $679,000
18. 2015-01-29
    soldstatus $46,500
19. 1991-11-08
    soldstatus $45,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,826
• − Property taxes: −$651
• − Insurance: −$520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,407
• − Management: −$1,407
• − Depreciation: −$3,025
• Taxable income: $4,751
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,140
• After-tax cash flow: $5,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Pinson

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #18763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 22,599
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+126.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $104,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $105,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $679,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $465,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 1991-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $45,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $651 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.