4023 Saint John Way NW · Birmingham, AL 35215

$104,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 365 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition 10,454 sqft lot $95/sqft · 47% below area Est $196k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in Pinson! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home offers strong potential for both investors and homebuyers. Whether you're looking to build your rental portfolio or customize your first home, this property is full of value. Located in a quiet neighborhood with convenient access to local schools, shopping, and major highways. Don’t miss your chance to take advantage of this affordable property in a growing area.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Local schools
• Shopping

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• LOCAL SCHOOLS
• SHOPPING
• MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• GROWING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $104k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $507 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 6.1% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Pinson Elementary School (801 students, 54% FRL); Rudd Middle School (math 0% / reading 26%, grade F, #214 of 257 statewide, top 83%, 667 students, 61% FRL); Pinson Valley High School (math 6% / reading 17%, grade F, #246 of 305 statewide, top 81%, 1,029 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 423 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 82% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $719 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 365 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 365 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.91%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,561
• List price: $104,000
• Delta: -46.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
321 Saint John Rd NW	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+8%)	2mo	$191,900	$162	80
3914 Caylan Cv	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,171 (+6%)	4mo	$185,000	$158	71
3861 Caylan Cv	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,121 (+2%)	13mo	$185,000	$165	65
4111 Main St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+5%)	6mo	$185,000	$161	63
229 Saint John Dr NW	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,171 (+6%)	15mo	$183,000	$156	60
253 Saint John Dr NW	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,171 (+6%)	15mo	$166,500	$142	58
204 Saint John Dr NW	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,253 (+14%)	8mo	$168,000	$134	57
5841 Princess Blvd	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,253 (+14%)	9mo	$150,000	$120	56
149 Martin Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,164 (+6%)	12mo	$159,000	$137	56
3029 Apple Valley Ln	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	4mo	$88,250	$88	44
3031 Apple Valley Ln	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	5mo	$109,000	$108	43
3204 Sweeney Hollow Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	9mo	$93,900	$93	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $15,501
• Equity at exit: $15,507

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $55,255
• Equity at exit: $8,992

Cash invested: $29,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.6 mo (39%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $130,000 ($109/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +63.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,456 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $651/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $104,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $566	-5% $537	+0% $507	+5% $478	+10% $449
Rent	-10% $392	-5% $450	+0% $507	+5% $565	+10% $622
Rate	-1.0pp $560	-0.5pp $534	base $507	+0.5pp $480	+1.0pp $453

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,000
• Closing costs: $3,120
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
212 Saint John Dr NW Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1445	$1,423	$0.98	63d	1	0.20mi
5992 Princess Blvd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,661	$1.14	93d	1	0.30mi
149 Martin Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,485	$1.28	73d	1	0.52mi
4205 Silver Lake Rd Unit 4205 Pinson, AL	2.0	1.0	1210	$1,200	$0.99	63d	1	0.84mi
4246 Centerwood Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,450	$1.09	65d	1	0.89mi
202 Westchester Dr Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1374	$1,300	$0.95	73d	1	1.00mi
3073 Panorama E Birmingham, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,275	$1.31	16d	19	1.03mi
232 Glenvalley Ln NW Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	954	$1,400	$1.47	35d	1	1.12mi
3309 Chase Ln Unit 3309 Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,000	$0.94	93d	1	1.20mi
2901 Sweeney Hollow Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,450	$1.04	17d	1	1.30mi
1104 Oak Creek Trl NE Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,513	$1.23	39d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $104,000 Active 365 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $104,000 Active 363 DOM
3. 2026-07-28
   days on market $104,000 Active 362 DOM
4. 2026-07-26
   days on market $104,000 Active 360 DOM
5. 2026-07-24
   days on market $104,000 Active 358 DOM
6. 2026-07-23
   days on market $104,000 Active 357 DOM
7. 2026-07-22
   days on market $104,000 Active 356 DOM
8. 2026-07-21
   days on market $104,000 Active 355 DOM
9. 2026-07-20
   days on market $104,000 Active 354 DOM
10. 2026-07-19
    days on market $104,000 Active 352 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $104,000 Active 351 DOM
12. 2026-07-16
    days on market $104,000 Active 350 DOM
13. 2026-07-15
    days on market $104,000 Active 349 DOM
14. 2026-07-14
    days on market $104,000 Active 348 DOM
15. 2026-07-13
    days on market $104,000 Active 347 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $104,000 Active 346 DOM
17. 2026-07-11
    days on market $104,000 Active 345 DOM
18. 2026-07-10
    days on market $104,000 Active 344 DOM
19. 2026-07-09
    days on market $104,000 Active 343 DOM
20. 2026-07-07
    days on market $104,000 Active 341 DOM
21. 2026-07-06
    days on market $104,000 Active 340 DOM
22. 2026-07-05
    days on market $104,000 Active 339 DOM
23. 2026-07-03
    days on market $104,000 Active 337 DOM
24. 2026-07-02
    days on market $104,000 Active 336 DOM
25. 2026-07-01
    days on market $104,000 Active 335 DOM
26. 2026-06-30
    days on market $104,000 Active 334 DOM
27. 2026-06-29
    days on market $104,000 Active 333 DOM
28. 2026-06-28
    days on market $104,000 Active 332 DOM
29. 2026-06-27
    days on market $104,000 Active 331 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $104,000 Active 330 DOM
31. 2026-06-25
    days on market $104,000 Active 328 DOM
32. 2026-06-22
    days on market $104,000 Active 326 DOM
33. 2026-06-22
    days on market $104,000 Active 325 DOM
34. 2026-06-18
    days on market $104,000 Active 322 DOM
35. 2026-06-17
    days on market $104,000 Active 321 DOM
36. 2026-06-16
    days on market $104,000 Active 320 DOM
37. 2026-06-15
    days on market $104,000 Active 319 DOM
38. 2026-06-13
    days on market $104,000 Active 317 DOM
39. 2026-06-10
    days on market $104,000 Active 314 DOM
40. 2026-06-09
    days on market $104,000 Active 313 DOM
41. 2026-06-08
    days on market $104,000 Active 312 DOM
42. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,000 Active 311 DOM
43. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,000 Active 307 DOM
44. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,000 Active 306 DOM
45. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,000 Active 305 DOM
46. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,000 Active 304 DOM
47. 2025-09-26
    price $104,000 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Great opportunity in Pinson! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home offers strong potential for both investors and homebuyers. Whether you're looking to build your rental portfolio or customize your first home, this property is full of value. Located in a quiet neighborhood with convenient access to local schools, shopping, and major highways. Don’t miss your chance to take advantage of this affordable property in a growing area.

48. 2025-07-31
    listed $105,000 Active 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Great opportunity in Pinson! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home offers strong potential for both investors and homebuyers. Whether you're looking to build your rental portfolio or customize your first home, this property is full of value. Located in a quiet neighborhood with convenient access to local schools, shopping, and major highways. Don’t miss your chance to take advantage of this affordable property in a growing area.

49. 2022-07-28
    soldstatus $465,000
50. 2022-07-28
    soldstatus $679,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $651 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,826
• − Property taxes: −$651
• − Insurance: −$520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,398
• − Management: −$1,398
• − Depreciation: −$3,025
• Taxable income: $4,657
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,118
• After-tax cash flow: $4,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $27,500–$49,500 screening

This single-family home in Pinson offers good potential for both investors and homebuyers. It requires moderate repairs and maintenance, particularly in the exterior and landscaping, to improve its resale and rental value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Deferred maintenance Est. $30,500–$92,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the roof.
• Major Windows (windows) — Windows appear old and may need replacement.
• Major Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of recent electrical work or updates.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — Exterior siding appears aged and may need repainting or replacement.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation
• Moderate Exterior paint — Light paint wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior painting — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance ↑
• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 12/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pinson Elementary School Middle Rudd Middle School F AL #214/257 Nat'l #12,963/14,009 High Pinson Valley High School F AL #246/305 Nat'l #15,908/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 669,185 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+126.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $104,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $105,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $679,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $465,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 1991-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $45,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $651 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.