4603 Balfour Rd #86 · Brentwood, CA 94513

$194,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 90 Days on market

Est $260k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large, Clean and Bright Corner Two Bedroom, Two Bath with 1536 Sq. Ft., Newer Composition Shingles Roof and New Water Heater. Large Kitchen w/ eat at Counter, Dishwasher, New Gas Stove Top, Window over Sink w/ Disposal, New Built In Oven, Skylight, Pantry, New Flooring and New Refrigerator. Separate Family Room w/ Skylight & Built In Cabinet, Dining Area w/ Built In Cabinet, Living Room, and Large California Room. New Carpets, New Flooring and New Paint. Master has Mirrored Closet Doors and en suite Bath w/ Step In Shower, Soaking Tub, New Toilet and Double Sinks. Second Bedroom has Jack and Jill Bath w/ Lg. Step In Shower and New Toilet. Large Laundry Room w/ Sink and Lots of Cabinets.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Listed 90 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Senior community; Clubhouse; Pets allowed with number limit

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with space for 2 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Corner lot; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Updated kitchen; Office
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 2.7% in Brentwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#525 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Brentwood Union Elementary (suburban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #268 of 1,400 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,360 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.47%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,584
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4603 Balfour Rd #97	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,554 (+1%)	9mo	$269,900	$174	85
4603 Balfour #100	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (0%)	18mo	$205,000	$133	84
3660 Walnut Blvd #53	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (+0%)	10mo	$260,000	$169	81
4603 Balfour Rd #68	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (-3%)	13mo	$226,500	$152	80
4603 Balfour Rd #83	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-9%)	6mo	$151,499	$109	79
4603 Balfour #29	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	12mo	$200,000	$139	79
4603 Balfour #30	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	16mo	$155,800	$108	76
4603 Balfour Rd #11	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,345 (-12%)	4mo	$235,000	$175	76
3660 Walnut Blvd #40	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	7mo	$245,000	$170	73
3660 Walnut Blvd #46	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,346 (-12%)	7mo	$172,500	$128	69
3660 Walnut Blvd #41	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,380 (-10%)	14mo	$319,900	$232	66
3660 Walnut Blvd #34	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,346 (-12%)	13mo	$255,000	$189	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $52,266
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $175,489
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94513

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$242 /mo · $2,910/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$675
• Net cashflow: $1,198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,697

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Canterbury Ct Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.0	1480	$3,200	$2.16	2d	1	0.53mi
128 Kingfisher St Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,990	$1.79	10d	1	0.93mi
1275 Central Blvd Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$3,650	$3.48	10d	1	0.95mi
720 Winding Creek Ter Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1531	$2,900	$1.89	10d	1	1.12mi
955 Bighorn Ter Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1531	$3,400	$2.22	19d	1	1.23mi
1015 Dellwood Ct Brentwood, CA	3.0	3.0	1645	$3,200	$1.95	24d	1	1.23mi
1290 Business Center Dr Brentwood, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	973	$3,380	$3.47	2d	7	1.29mi
1100 Twinbridge Ct Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1158	$3,250	$2.81	2d	1	1.32mi
1377 Reagan Way Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1573	$3,100	$1.97	2d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-02-26
   listed $194,000 Active
3. 2018-10-25
   soldstatus $155,000 Sold 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   Large, Clean and Bright Corner Two Bedroom, Two Bath with 1536 Sq. Ft., Newer Composition Shingles Roof and New Water Heater. Large Kitchen w/ eat at Counter, Dishwasher, New Gas Stove Top, Window over Sink w/ Disposal, New Built In Oven, Skylight, Pantry, New Flooring and New Refrigerator. Separate Family Room w/ Skylight & Built In Cabinet, Dining Area w/ Built In Cabinet, Living Room, and Large California Room. New Carpets, New Flooring and New Paint. Master has Mirrored Closet Doors and en suite Bath w/ Step In Shower, Soaking Tub, New Toilet and Double Sinks. Second Bedroom has Jack and Jill Bath w/ Lg. Step In Shower and New Toilet. Large Laundry Room w/ Sink and Lots of Cabinets.

4. 2018-09-18
   status Pending 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   Large, Clean and Bright Corner Two Bedroom, Two Bath with 1536 Sq. Ft., Newer Composition Shingles Roof and New Water Heater. Large Kitchen w/ eat at Counter, Dishwasher, New Gas Stove Top, Window over Sink w/ Disposal, New Built In Oven, Skylight, Pantry, New Flooring and New Refrigerator. Separate Family Room w/ Skylight & Built In Cabinet, Dining Area w/ Built In Cabinet, Living Room, and Large California Room. New Carpets, New Flooring and New Paint. Master has Mirrored Closet Doors and en suite Bath w/ Step In Shower, Soaking Tub, New Toilet and Double Sinks. Second Bedroom has Jack and Jill Bath w/ Lg. Step In Shower and New Toilet. Large Laundry Room w/ Sink and Lots of Cabinets.

5. 2018-09-14
   listed $164,500 New 702-char remark

   Show marketing remark (702 chars)

   Large, Clean and Bright Corner Two Bedroom, Two Bath with 1536 Sq. Ft., Newer Composition Shingles Roof and New Water Heater. Large Kitchen w/ eat at Counter, Dishwasher, New Gas Stove Top, Window over Sink w/ Disposal, New Built In Oven, Skylight, Pantry, New Flooring and New Refrigerator. Separate Family Room w/ Skylight & Built In Cabinet, Dining Area w/ Built In Cabinet, Living Room, and Large California Room. New Carpets, New Flooring and New Paint. Master has Mirrored Closet Doors and en suite Bath w/ Step In Shower, Soaking Tub, New Toilet and Double Sinks. Second Bedroom has Jack and Jill Bath w/ Lg. Step In Shower and New Toilet. Large Laundry Room w/ Sink and Lots of Cabinets.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$2,910
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,085
• − Management: −$3,085
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable income: $12,005
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,881
• After-tax cash flow: $11,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0605910
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $91,644
• Composite: 52.7/100
• National rank: #3320
• State rank: #268 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Brentwood

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #525
• US rank: #17696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brentwood, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 69,755
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 69,755
• Household income: $142,223
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1056.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 16% Two or more races 14% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 5% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -245.60%
• Current HPI: 249.5513
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+17.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Contingent — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-26 Listed $194,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-10-25 Sold (MLS) $155,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-09-18 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2018-09-14 Listed $164,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $281 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.